Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 15, 2025, 23:09 UTC

Changes and New Information (22:10 UTC - 23:09 UTC)

1. AIR RAID ALERT MAP (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • РБК-Україна (22:13:03 UTC) publishes an updated air raid alert map. The map visually depicts regions under active air raid alerts, signifying high-risk areas. Red color indicates a state of emergency (air alerts).
   • Assessment: The map CONFIRMS the WIDESPREAD NATURE of the ongoing air threat, covering a LARGE PORTION OF UKRAINE. Specifically the map highlights: KYIV OBLAST, CHERKASY OBLAST, KIROVOHRAD OBLAST, POLTAVA OBLAST, SUMY OBLAST, CHERNIHIV OBLAST, KHARKIV OBLAST, DNIPROPETROVSK OBLAST, MYKOLAIV OBLAST AND ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST. This VISUALLY REINFORCES the drone movement reports and threat assessments.

2. DETAILED DRONE MOVEMENTS (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES, HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Nikolaevskiy Vanyok (22:13:11 UTC) provides highly specific drone movement information:

     • 2 drones approaching Brovary.
     • 1 drone south of Boryspil, heading southwest.
     • 5 drones heading towards/through Poltava.
     • 3 drones in western Kharkiv Oblast, heading south.
     • 10 drones from Poltava Oblast flying towards Cherkasy Oblast.
     • 4 drones in the Pryluky area.
     • 6 drones moving from Sumy Oblast to Chernihiv Oblast.
     • 7 drones south of Sumy, heading towards Poltava Oblast.
     • 4 drones north of Konotop, heading west.
     • 3 drones in the Chernihiv area.
     • 2 drones flying past Shostka towards Chernihiv Oblast.

   • Ukrainian Air Force (22:22:27, 22:36:06, 22:48:32, 22:54:21 UTC) confirms drone threats for: * Cherkasy Oblast * Mykolaiv Oblast. 1 drone on the north of Kherson region, flying towards Mykolaiv. * Kirovohrad Oblast * Mykolaiv, Kharkiv, Poltava, Cherkasy, Zhytomyr, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.

   • Nikolaevskiy Vanyok (22:41:57, 22:46:27, 22:54:44, 22:58:53, 23:08:19 UTC) provides updates about Mykolaiv:

     • 3 new drones approaching Mykolaiv.
     • 5 drones approaching the city.
     • 2 drones over the city, 1 in Parutino area.
     • 2 drones approaching from Velyka Korenykha, targeting Zavodskyi district.
     • 2 drones approaching Korabelnyi district.
     • РБК-Україна (22:48:55, 22:58:17) reports explosions heard in Mykolaiv.

   • Assessment: This provides EXTREMELY DETAILED AND ACTIONABLE INTELLIGENCE on the ongoing drone attack. The sheer number of drones reported, their diverse flight paths, and the targeting of MULTIPLE KEY CITIES (including MYKOLAIV, BROVARY, AND OTHERS) indicates a MAJOR, COORDINATED, AND SUSTAINED ATTACK designed to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses. IMMEDIATE ACTION is required to TRACK AND INTERCEPT these drones. The reports of explosions in MYKOLAIV confirm that the drones are REACHING THEIR TARGETS.

3. RUSSIAN GROUND ASSAULTS ON KOSTYANTYNOPIL AND ULAKLY (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, HIGH PRIORITY):

   • ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 (22:23:34 UTC) reports Russian ground assaults on Kostyantynopil and Ulakly on February 15th.
     • Kostyantynopil: Heavy Russian attacks involving 20-37 pieces of equipment (mostly destroyed). Russian infantry dispersed on the southern outskirts and near a forest line at point 127.2. One Russian armored vehicle reached the road to Bahatyr, dismounted infantry, and was destroyed. Ukrainian forces have partially "cleansed" Kostyantynopil; stabilization operations are ongoing.
     • Ulakly: Smaller Russian attack with 8-10 pieces of equipment, but more successful. Russian infantry has dispersed and is consolidating in the eastern part of the village. This maneuver threatens Ukrainian forces positioned further east.
   • Assessment: This indicates INTENSE GROUND FIGHTING and POTENTIAL RUSSIAN ADVANCES, particularly in ULAKLY. The reported destruction of a significant amount of Russian equipment near Kostyantynopil suggests a STRONG UKRAINIAN DEFENSE, but the situation remains FLUID AND DANGEROUS. The successful Russian penetration in Ulakly is a SERIOUS DEVELOPMENT that requires IMMEDIATE RESPONSE.

4. RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF UKRAINIAN RETREAT FROM DACHNE (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):

   • Военкор Котенок (22:41:37 UTC) claims Ukrainian forces have retreated from Dachne, and the area is being "cleansed." Claims Ukrainian forces are retreating almost to Ulakly and are building positions in front of the settlement. Also claims Andrivka is being "cleansed" with no observed Ukrainian positions. Reports Ukrainian efforts to stabilize the situation by building fortifications around Bahatyr and Oleksiivka, slowing Russian advances in Kostyantynopil. Reports two Russian attacks on Preobrazhenka (outcome unclear). Claims small group tactics near Pokrovsk and continued fighting near Yelyzavetivka. Acknowledges significant Ukrainian manpower shortages.
   • Assessment: This report REQUIRES CAREFUL VERIFICATION. While it aligns with the ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 report of fighting near Ulakly and Kostyantynopil, it is presented from a RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE and may be EXAGGERATED OR MISLEADING. The claim of a Ukrainian retreat to near Ulakly is SIGNIFICANT and, if true, would represent a MAJOR RUSSIAN ADVANCE. The acknowledgment of Ukrainian manpower shortages is consistent with previous assessments.

5. CZECH REPUBLIC REPORTS AMMUNITION SUPPLIES (CONFIRMED):

   • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (22:59:50) Reports Czech President Pavel stating that 1.5 million artillery munitions have been supplied to Ukraine, thanks to the Czech initiative, with a call to increase this number.
   • Assessment: This shows a very relevant increase in the supply of a critical resource.

6. US WANTS EUROPE TO TAKE THE LEAD (REPORTED):

   • TASS (22:55:09) reports a US State Department official stating the US wants Europe to take the lead on security assurances for Ukraine.
   • Assessment: This confirms a shift in US policy.

Updated Situation Summary

• MASSIVE, COORDINATED RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACK CONTINUES (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Detailed reports confirm a LARGE-SCALE, MULTI-WAVE DRONE ATTACK targeting numerous regions of Ukraine, including MYKOLAIV, BROVARY, CHERKASY, POLTAVA, KHARKIV, AND OTHERS. Explosions are reported in MYKOLAIV.
• INTENSE GROUND FIGHTING NEAR KOSTYANTYNOPIL AND ULAKLY (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Russian forces are conducting significant ground assaults. While Ukrainian forces have inflicted heavy losses on Russian equipment near Kostyantynopil, Russian infantry has gained a foothold in Ulakly, posing a serious threat.
• CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES (HIGH PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): A Russian source claims significant Ukrainian retreats, particularly near Ulakly. This requires independent verification.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT: The potential US-Belarus deal, the expanded US-Russia discussions, the claimed death of a Ukrainian Colonel, the extreme escalation of fighting, and the ongoing drone attacks remain HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT.

Updated Recommendations

1. MAINTAIN MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE ALERT AND RESPONSE (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Maintain MAXIMUM ALERT STATUS for air defense systems across ALL THREATENED REGIONS, with particular focus on areas with SPECIFIC DRONE MOVEMENT REPORTS.
   • Deploy all available resources to DETECT, TRACK, AND INTERCEPT incoming drones.
   • Utilize the detailed drone movement information from Nikolaevskiy Vanyok and the Ukrainian Air Force to OPTIMIZE AIR DEFENSE DEPLOYMENTS.
   • Prioritize the protection of critical infrastructure and population centers.
   • Continue issuing clear and frequent warnings to civilians to SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.
   • Prepare for potential mass casualty events and infrastructure damage.

2. RESPOND TO GROUND SITUATION NEAR KOSTYANTYNOPIL AND ULAKLY (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Reinforce Ukrainian positions near Kostyantynopil and PREVENT FURTHER RUSSIAN ADVANCES.
   • Deploy all available resources to COUNTER THE RUSSIAN FOOTHOLD in Ulakly.
   • Assess the possibility of counterattacks to regain lost ground.
   • Gather further intelligence on Russian troop strength and intentions in the area.

3. VERIFY CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Utilize all available intelligence assets (satellite imagery, drone reconnaissance, HUMINT) to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the Russian claims of Ukrainian retreats near Dachne and Ulakly.
   • Assess the impact on the overall strategic situation if the claims are confirmed.

4. ADDRESS THE NEW MUNITION SUPPLIES (IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Ensure the new supplies are properly routed to the front.

5. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

The situation is EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND RAPIDLY EVOLVING. The MASSIVE, COORDINATED RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACK is the MOST IMMEDIATE AND WIDESPREAD THREAT, requiring MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE READINESS AND RESPONSE. The INTENSE GROUND FIGHTING near Kostyantynopil and Ulakly represents a SERIOUS AND DEVELOPING THREAT that requires IMMEDIATE ACTION. The CLAIMS OF RUSSIAN ADVANCES need URGENT VERIFICATION. All previous recommendations remain in effect, with adjustments to prioritize the most urgent developments.