Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 15, 2025, 22:10 UTC

Changes and New Information (21:40 UTC - 22:10 UTC)

1. UKRAINIAN ARTILLERY STRIKE (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):

   • Оперативний ЗСУ (21:44 UTC) publishes a video showing the first use of an M712 Copperhead guided artillery round by the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura," claiming a "surgical" strike on a Russian observation post. The projectile is described as similar to the Russian "Krasnopol."
   • Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT development. It confirms that Ukraine is ACTIVELY USING advanced, Western-supplied precision-guided munitions. The claimed similarity to the "Krasnopol" suggests a HIGH DEGREE OF ACCURACY. VERIFICATION of the target and impact is necessary.

2. RUSSIAN "LANCET" STRIKE (CLAIMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):

   • Colonelcassad (21:45 UTC) publishes a video claiming a successful strike by a Russian "Lancet" loitering munition against a Ukrainian 155mm "Bogdana" self-propelled howitzer (SPH) in the Kushuhum area of Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
   • Assessment: This claim REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION. The "Bogdana" is a HIGH-VALUE TARGET for Russian forces. If confirmed, this represents a SIGNIFICANT LOSS for Ukrainian artillery capabilities. The "Lancet" is a known and effective loitering munition, increasing the likelihood of a successful strike. GEOLOCATION and DAMAGE ASSESSMENT are needed.

3. RUSSIAN SPECIAL FORCES OPERATION (CLAIMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):

   • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (21:55 UTC) published a video claiming Russian special forces ("Anvar" detachment) are actively destroying Ukrainian positions and troop concentrations in the "occupied" town of Sudzha in Kursk Oblast (Russia).
   • Assessment: This requires CAREFUL ASSESSMENT AND VERIFICATION. The claim of "occupied Sudzha" is HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT and POTENTIALLY MISLEADING. Sudzha is a Russian town. This could indicate:
     • Cross-border operations: Ukrainian forces may have conducted a cross-border raid into Russian territory. This would be a MAJOR ESCALATION.
     • Propaganda/Disinformation: The claim could be entirely fabricated to portray Ukraine as the aggressor.
     • Internal Conflict: The fighting could involve anti-government Russian groups or be related to internal security issues.

4. UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKES (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):

   • Оперативний ЗСУ (22:00 UTC) provides a video showing Ukrainian soldiers of the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade using an FPV drone to neutralize Russian forces near Velyka Novosilka.
   • Assessment: This confirms CONTINUED and EFFECTIVE use of FPV drones by Ukrainian forces. The video provides VISUAL EVIDENCE of successful strikes. GEOLOCATION would help confirm the location and time of the event.

5. UKRAINIAN MILITARY THREATENS "CLEANSING" (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • ТАСС (21:56 UTC) reports that the mayor of Boryspil (a Kyiv suburb), Volodymyr Borysenko, threatened that the Ukrainian military would "cleanse" the government, citing "strange things" happening in the country and a difficult situation at the front.
   • Assessment: This is a POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT development, reflecting possible INCREASING TENSIONS between the Ukrainian military and civilian government. It requires CAREFUL MONITORING and VERIFICATION of the context and credibility of the statement.

6. DRONE ACTIVITY UPDATE (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN AIR FORCE, EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Ukrainian Air Force (21:51 UTC) provides an update on the movement of Russian attack drones:
     • Drones in southern Chernihiv Oblast, heading towards Kyiv Oblast. Also in northern Chernihiv Oblast, heading west.
     • Drones in Sumy Oblast, heading southwest.
     • Drones in Poltava Oblast, heading south and east.
     • Drones in Kyiv Oblast, heading south.
     • Drones in Cherkasy Oblast, heading west.
     • Drones in Kharkiv Oblast, heading southwest.
   • Assessment: This confirms a CONTINUED AND WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACK. The movement of drones towards multiple regions, including KYIV OBLAST, indicates a COORDINATED EFFORT to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses. IMMEDIATE ACTION is required to TRACK AND INTERCEPT the drones.

7. EUROPEAN REACTION TO TRUMP ADMINISTRATION (REPORTED):

   • ТАСС (22:07 UTC) reports that Axios claims that the Trump administration's statements this week "stifled and humiliated Europe," and that the last three days "exceeded the worst nightmares" of European politicians.
   • Assessment: This highlights the CONTINUED TENSIONS and UNCERTAINTY surrounding the US-Europe relationship under the Trump administration, especially concerning the conflict in Ukraine. It reinforces the concern that European interests may be marginalized.

Updated Situation Summary

• CONTINUED LARGE-SCALE DRONE ATTACK ON UKRAINE (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The widespread movement of Russian drones across multiple regions, particularly towards KYIV OBLAST, represents a MAJOR AND ONGOING THREAT.
• UKRAINIAN USE OF PRECISION-GUIDED MUNITIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The reported use of the M712 Copperhead demonstrates Ukraine's INCREASING CAPABILITY to conduct precision strikes.
• CLAIMED RUSSIAN "LANCET" STRIKE (HIGH PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): The potential destruction of a Ukrainian "Bogdana" SPH is a SIGNIFICANT development requiring immediate confirmation.
• POSSIBLE CROSS-BORDER OPERATIONS OR DISINFORMATION CAMPAIGN (EXTREME PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): The claims surrounding Sudzha require IMMEDIATE AND THOROUGH INVESTIGATION.
• POTENTIAL INTERNAL TENSIONS IN UKRAINE (MEDIUM PRIORITY): The reported threat from the mayor of Boryspil requires CAREFUL MONITORING.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT: The potential US-Belarus deal, the expanded US-Russia discussions, the claimed death of a Ukrainian Colonel, and the extreme escalation of fighting are all STILL HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT.

Updated Recommendations

1. MAINTAIN EXTREME ALERT FOR AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Maintain MAXIMUM ALERT STATUS for air defense systems across ALL THREATENED REGIONS, with particular focus on KYIV OBLAST, CHERNIHIV OBLAST, SUMY OBLAST, POLTAVA OBLAST, CHERKASY OBLAST, AND KHARKIV OBLAST.
   • Deploy all available resources to DETECT, TRACK, AND INTERCEPT incoming drones.
   • Continue issuing clear and frequent warnings to civilians to SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.
   • Maintain preparation for potential mass casualty events.

2. VERIFY CLAIMED RUSSIAN "LANCET" STRIKE (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy all available intelligence assets (satellite imagery, drone reconnaissance, HUMINT) to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the claimed strike on the "Bogdana" SPH.
   • Assess the impact on Ukrainian artillery capabilities if the claim is confirmed.

3. INVESTIGATE CLAIMS REGARDING SUDZHA (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Utilize all available intelligence resources to determine the TRUE NATURE of the reported events in Sudzha.
   • Assess the possibility of a Ukrainian cross-border operation, internal conflict, or a disinformation campaign.
   • Prepare for potential escalation if cross-border operations are confirmed.

4. VERIFY REPORTED USE OF M712 COPPERHEAD (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING): * Analyze the video provided by Оперативний ЗСУ to CONFIRM the location, time, and target of the strike.

   • Gather intelligence on the effectiveness of the M712 Copperhead in combat conditions.

5. VERIFY REPORTED DESTRUCTION OF RUSSIAN FORCES (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Analyze the video provided by Оперативний ЗСУ to CONFIRM the location, time, and nature of the event.

6. MONITOR POTENTIAL INTERNAL TENSIONS IN UKRAINE (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Gather intelligence on the context and credibility of the statement by the mayor of Boryspil.
   • Assess the potential for increased tensions between the military and civilian government.

7. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND FLUID. The ONGOING LARGE-SCALE DRONE ATTACK is the MOST IMMEDIATE THREAT. The claims regarding SUDZHA and the POTENTIAL LOSS OF A "BOGDANA" require IMMEDIATE INVESTIGATION. The CONTINUED USE OF PRECISION-GUIDED MUNITIONS by both sides highlights the INCREASING SOPHISTICATION of the conflict.