Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 15, 2025, 20:10 UTC

Changes and New Information (19:40 UTC - 20:10 UTC)

1. CONFLICTING REPORTS ON UKRAINIAN PARTICIPATION IN SAUDI ARABIA TALKS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFLICTING SOURCES):

   • Alex Parker Returns (19:40 UTC), citing Politico, reiterates that Ukraine will participate in the talks in Saudi Arabia. It confirms Waltz, Rubio, and Whitkoff will attend, and that Kellogg will not. It notes the absence of major European powers.

   • Оперативний ЗСУ (19:47 UTC), citing Fox News, states Ukraine was not informed or invited to the talks.

   • РБК-Україна (19:50 UTC), also citing Fox News, reports the same, stating that information about Ukrainian participation is not confirmed. It notes Zelenskyy denied rumors of meetings with Russians next week.

   • STERNENKO (20:00 UTC) Ukraine did not receive an invitation.

   • РБК-Україна (19:54 UTC), citing Mykhailo Podolyak, confirms that there will be no Ukrainian negotiators in Saudi Arabia. Podolyak states there are currently no topics to discuss with the Russians.

   • Assessment: There is MAJOR DISCREPANCY between sources regarding Ukrainian participation. Politico claims Ukraine will be present, while Fox News and Ukrainian sources (Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, STERNENKO, and Podolyak) state Ukraine was NOT invited and will NOT participate. Podolyak's statement is the STRONGEST INDICATION that Ukraine is NOT involved, directly contradicting the initial Politico report. This creates significant UNCERTAINTY about the nature and purpose of the talks and raises concerns about potential agreements being made without Ukrainian input.

2. EXPANDED DRONE THREAT TO POLTAVA OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN AIR FORCE):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (19:41 UTC, 19:40 UTC) reports a drone threat in POLTAVA OBLAST. The update indicates drones moving from Sumy Oblast towards the border of Chernihiv and Poltava Oblasts, with a western and southern course. Drones are also confirmed in Chernihiv Oblast, moving westward.

   • Assessment: This FURTHER EXPANDS the area under IMMEDIATE DRONE THREAT to include POLTAVA OBLAST. The westward and southward movement of drones suggests a potential threat across a BROADER AREA of central and northern Ukraine.

3. UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKES IN KURSK REGION (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Оперативний ЗСУ (19:41 UTC) reports video of Ukrainian marine drone operators targeting Russian forces in the Kursk region.

   • Assessment: This REQUIRES VERIFICATION. If confirmed, it indicates UKRAINIAN OPERATIONS INSIDE RUSSIAN TERRITORY, specifically targeting the Kursk region. This is a SIGNIFICANT ESCALATION and suggests Ukrainian capability to strike beyond the immediate front lines.

4. ROCKET THREAT IN ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

   • 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (19:47 UTC) Air raid alert was announced.

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (19:48 UTC) reports a rocket threat in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (19:49 UTC) reports that there are fast-moving targets.

   • Assessment: This indicates an IMMEDIATE THREAT of rocket attacks in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

5. UKRAINE REJECTS US PROPOSAL ON RARE EARTH MINERALS (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • ТАСС (19:50 UTC), claims, citing The Washington Post, that Ukraine rejected a US plan offering aid in exchange for 50% of Ukrainian rare earth minerals. Kyiv is reportedly working on a counter-proposal.

   • Assessment: This REQUIRES VERIFICATION. If accurate, it reveals a POTENTIAL POINT OF CONTENTION between Ukraine and the US regarding resource control and aid conditions. It suggests Ukraine is seeking to maintain greater control over its resources.

6. RUSSIAN AIRCRAFT ACTIVITY (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN AIR FORCE):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (19:53 UTC) reports that there is activity of enemy tactical aviation.
   • Assessment: This indicates an IMMEDIATE THREAT of air strikes.

7. COMMENTARY ON POKROVSK (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Филолог в засаде (19:54 UTC) is claiming that there is vulnerability of supply routes.
   • Assessment: This indicates ongoing conflict.

8. CLAIMED LIBERATION OF SVERDLIKOVO (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):

   • Alex Parker Returns (20:02 UTC) claims that Sverdlikovo in the Kursk region has been "liberated."

   • Assessment: This REQUIRES IMMEDIATE AND THOROUGH VERIFICATION. If true, this would represent a SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN GAIN in the Kursk region, further escalating the conflict.

9. CLAIMED SEIZURE OF UKRAINIAN STRONGPOINT AND CAPTURE OF POWS (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):

   • Colonelcassad (20:03 UTC) claims Russian forces seized a Ukrainian strongpoint and captured prisoners, described as "innocent conscripts."

   • Assessment: This REQUIRES VERIFICATION. If accurate, it suggests continued localized Russian advances. The description of the prisoners is likely part of a RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA NARRATIVE.

Updated Situation Summary

• MAJOR DISCREPANCY ON UKRAINIAN PARTICIPATION IN SAUDI ARABIA TALKS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFLICTING SOURCES): Politico claims Ukraine will participate, while Fox News and MULTIPLE UKRAINIAN SOURCES (including Podolyak) state Ukraine was NOT invited and will NOT attend. This creates SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY and raises SERIOUS CONCERNS about potential agreements being made without Ukrainian input.
• EXPANDED DRONE THREAT (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The drone threat now extends to POLTAVA OBLAST, in addition to CHERNIHIV and SUMY OBLASTS. The westward and southward movement suggests a potential threat across a BROADER AREA.
• REPORTED UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKES IN KURSK REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): If confirmed, this represents a SIGNIFICANT ESCALATION with Ukrainian operations inside Russian territory.
• IMMEDIATE ROCKET THREAT IN ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): An air raid alert and reports of a rocket threat indicate an IMMINENT DANGER of attack.
• REPORTED REJECTION OF US RESOURCE DEAL (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): If true, this reveals a potential point of contention between Ukraine and the US regarding aid conditions and resource control.
• RUSSIAN AIRCRAFT ACTIVITY (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The activity of enemy tactical aviation is reported.
• COMMENTARY ON POKROVSK (REPORTED): Claim of vulnerable supply routes.
• CLAIMED LIBERATION OF SVERDLIKOVO (HIGH PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): If true, this would represent a significant Russian gain.
• CLAIMED CAPTURE OF UKRAINIAN POWS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): If true, suggests continued localized Russian advances, but the description of the prisoners is likely propaganda.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT: The situation with the US-Russia talks, the drone threats, the weather impact, and all other previous key developments remain IMPORTANT FACTORS.

Updated Recommendations

1. CLARIFY SITUATION REGARDING SAUDI ARABIA TALKS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Urgently seek clarification from US officials regarding the conflicting reports on Ukrainian participation in the Saudi Arabia talks.
   • Demand transparency from the US regarding the objectives and scope of the talks.
   • Express strong concerns about any potential agreements being made without Ukrainian input.
   • Reinforce Ukraine's position that any negotiations affecting its future must involve direct Ukrainian representation.

2. EXPAND AIR DEFENSE ALERT TO POLTAVA OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Immediately extend air defense alerts and readiness to POLTAVA OBLAST.
   • Deploy counter-drone systems and be prepared for potential attacks.
   • Maintain HIGH ALERT in SUMY and CHERNIHIV OBLASTS.
   • Monitor for westward and southward movement of drones and adjust alerts accordingly.

3. VERIFY REPORTED UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKES IN KURSK REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Utilize all available intelligence assets to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the reports of Ukrainian drone strikes in the Kursk region.
   • Assess the potential targets and the extent of any damage.
   • Prepare for potential Russian responses and retaliatory actions.

4. RESPOND TO ROCKET THREAT IN ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Activate air defense systems in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
   • Issue public warnings and advise civilians to seek shelter.
   • Monitor for incoming projectiles and be prepared for potential impacts.

5. VERIFY REPORTED REJECTION OF US RESOURCE DEAL (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Seek confirmation from Ukrainian officials regarding the reported rejection of the US proposal on rare earth minerals.
   • Gather details about the specific terms of the proposal and Ukraine's counter-proposal.
   • Assess the potential impact on US-Ukraine relations and future aid negotiations.

6. VERIFY RUSSIAN AIRCRAFT ACTIVITY (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy air defenses in areas where there may be aircraft activity.
   • Assess the potential targets* and the extent of any damage.

7. VERIFY COMMENTARY ON POKROVSK (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy assets to verify the claims.
   • Assess the potential targets* and the extent of any damage.

8. VERIFY CLAIMED LIBERATION OF SVERDLIKOVO (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy all available intelligence assets to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the claim.
   • Assess the strategic implications if the claim is confirmed.

9. VERIFY CLAIMED CAPTURE OF UKRAINIAN POWS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Attempt to verify the claim through available intelligence channels.
   • Assess the potential location of the captured personnel.

10. MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other previous recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated. The IMMEDIATE PRIORITIES are CLARIFYING THE SITUATION WITH THE SAUDI ARABIA TALKS, RESPONDING TO THE EXPANDED DRONE AND ROCKET THREATS, and VERIFYING KEY CLAIMS about territorial changes and military actions.

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND FLUID. The CONFLICTING REPORTS on Ukrainian participation in the Saudi Arabia talks create MAJOR UNCERTAINTY and require IMMEDIATE CLARIFICATION. The EXPANDED DRONE AND ROCKET THREATS necessitate IMMEDIATE ACTION to protect civilian populations and military assets. VERIFYING KEY CLAIMS about military actions and territorial changes is CRUCIAL for accurate situational awareness. CONSTANT MONITORING, RAPID RESPONSE, AND PROACTIVE DIPLOMACY are essential.