Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 15, 2025, 19:40 UTC

Changes and New Information (19:10 UTC - 19:40 UTC)

1. CLARIFICATION ON US-RUSSIA MEETING IN SAUDI ARABIA (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN AND US SOURCES):

   • Оперативний ЗСУ (19:11 UTC), citing Politico, reports that Steve Whitkoff, Marco Rubio, and Mike Waltz are heading to Saudi Arabia to meet with a Russian negotiating team to end the war in Ukraine. It initially states that a Ukrainian delegation will be present, but that a European delegation will not.
   • РБК-Україна (19:15 UTC), also citing Politico, confirms the trip by Waltz, Rubio, and Whitkoff to meet with Ukrainian and Russian negotiators. It specifically states that Kellogg's participation is NOT planned.
   • Assessment: This CLARIFIES the previous reports. It CONFIRMS a US-Russia meeting in Saudi Arabia with the INTENTION of discussing the war in Ukraine. KEY CLARIFICATION: Ukrainian negotiators will be present, and Kellogg is NOT participating. This SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCES THE IMMEDIATE CONCERN about Ukraine being excluded from crucial discussions. However, the ABSENCE OF A EUROPEAN DELEGATION is still a NOTEWORTHY POINT, suggesting a potentially US-led initiative.

2. DRONE THREAT UPDATE (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN AIR FORCE):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (19:11 UTC, 19:14 UTC) reports a threat of attack drones in CHERNIHIV OBLAST. The updated information indicates that drones are approaching the border of SUMY AND CHERNIHIV OBLASTS, moving in a WESTERN DIRECTION.
   • Assessment: This extends the area under IMMEDIATE DRONE THREAT. The westward movement suggests a potential threat to areas FURTHER WEST within Ukraine.

3. RUSSIAN AMBASSADOR TO ISRAEL MEETS RELEASED HOSTAGE (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • ТАСС (19:11 UTC) confirms the release.
   • Assessment: Not a change.

4. WEATHER UPDATE AND ITS IMPACT (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Mash на Донбассе (19:35 UTC) reports traffic problems in the Donetsk People's Republic due to icy conditions. Specifically, it mentions a traffic jam in Kommunar due to colliding cars, difficulty for vehicles climbing hills due to ice, and three accidents on the Zhdanovka-Khartsyzsk road.
   • Assessment: This highlights the IMPACT OF WEATHER on LOGISTICS AND TRANSPORTATION in the region. Icy roads can HINDER MILITARY MOVEMENTS, especially for heavy vehicles, and increase the risk of accidents. This could SLOW DOWN RUSSIAN ADVANCES or resupply efforts, and potentially make them MORE VULNERABLE TO ATTACK.

5. TARGETED EXPLOSION IN YENAKIIEVE (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Mash на Донбассе (19:35 UTC) reports an explosion that destroyed a car.
   • Assessment: Possible assassination.

6. KRIVYI RIH UPDATE (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Олександр Вілкул (19:15 UTC) reports on the situation in Kryvyi Rih. Key points:
     • Reports on Ukrainian military successes in inflicting losses on Russian forces (1180 personnel, 11 tanks, 17 armored vehicles, etc.).
     • Reports enemy attacks on the Nikopol district with heavy artillery and a kamikaze drone, causing damage but no casualties.
     • Confirms no shelling in the Kryvyi Rih district.
     • Mentions efforts to clear roads and maintain public transport due to worsening weather conditions.
     • Warns parents about the dangers of children playing on frozen bodies of water, reporting a fatality in the Kryvyi Rih district due to a fisherman falling through the ice.
     • Reports on a meeting with veterans.
   • Assessment: This provides a LOCAL SITUATION UPDATE, confirming continued military activity in the Nikopol district and highlighting the impact of winter weather. The report of a fatality due to ice is a CIVILIAN CONCERN, but not directly related to military operations.

7. DRONE ATTACK ON RUSSIAN FORCES (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Оперативний ЗСУ (19:21 UTC) reports a video of Ukrainian SOF targeting Russian quad bike riders.
   • Assessment: This REQUIRES VERIFICATION but, if accurate, suggests continued Ukrainian use of drones for targeted attacks.

8. MACRON CALLS FOR EMERGENCY EUROPEAN SUMMIT (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (19:31 UTC) reports that Macron calls for an emergency summit.
   • Assessment: Possible division among countries in the West.

9. UKRAINIAN FUNDRAISING (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

• БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (19:22 UTC) is asking for donations to fix vehicles.
• STERNENKO (19:18 UTC) is asking for donations.
  • Assessment: Confirmation of ongoing fundraising.

10. RUSSIAN SUMMARY OF TELEPHONE CONVERSATION (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (19:34 UTC) reports on the conversation.
    • Assessment: Confirmation of DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS.

11. DRONE ATTACKS (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • Colonelcassad (19:34 UTC) reports on drone attacks.
      • Assessment: Claim that requires further verification.

12. ZELENSKYY UPDATE (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • Zelenskiy / Official (19:38 UTC) reports on diplomatic meetings. * Assessment: Confirmation of diplomatic efforts.

Updated Situation Summary

• CONFIRMED US-RUSSIA-UKRAINE MEETING IN SAUDI ARABIA (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The situation is CLARIFIED, with CONFIRMATION that Ukrainian negotiators WILL participate in the talks in Saudi Arabia, and Kellogg will NOT be present. This SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCES THE IMMEDIATE CONCERN about Ukraine being excluded. However, the ABSENCE OF A EUROPEAN DELEGATION remains a NOTEWORTHY POINT.
• EXPANDED DRONE THREAT (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The drone threat now extends to CHERNIHIV OBLAST, in addition to SUMY OBLAST. The westward movement suggests a potential threat to areas FURTHER WEST.
• WEATHER IMPACTING LOGISTICS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Icy conditions in the Donetsk region are HINDERING TRANSPORTATION, potentially impacting RUSSIAN MILITARY MOVEMENTS AND RESUPPLY EFFORTS.
• POSSIBLE ASSASSINATION (HIGH PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): An explosion destroyed a car.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT: The high-level US-Russia talks, the drone threat in Kharkiv and Sumy regions, the situation in the DRC, and all other previous key developments remain IMPORTANT FACTORS.

Updated Recommendations

1. MONITOR US-RUSSIA-UKRAINE TALKS (EXTREME PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Closely monitor the developments from the meeting in Saudi Arabia.
   • Focus on gathering information about the specific topics discussed, agreements reached, and any potential implications for the military situation.
   • Assess the impact of the talks on the overall strategic landscape.
   • Maintain communication with European allies.

2. EXPAND AIR DEFENSE ALERT TO CHERNIHIV OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Immediately extend air defense alerts and readiness to CHERNIHIV OBLAST.
   • Deploy counter-drone systems and be prepared for potential attacks.
   • Maintain HIGH ALERT in SUMY OBLAST.
   • Monitor for westward movement of drones and adjust alerts accordingly.

3. ASSESS IMPACT OF WEATHER ON LOGISTICS (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Gather intelligence on the extent of the impact of icy conditions on Russian military movements and resupply efforts in the Donetsk region.
   • Identify potential vulnerabilities created by the weather conditions.
   • Assess the potential for Ukrainian forces to exploit these vulnerabilities.

4. MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other previous recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated. The IMMEDIATE PRIORITIES are MONITORING THE US-RUSSIA-UKRAINE TALKS, EXPANDING AIR DEFENSE ALERTS, and ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF WEATHER ON LOGISTICS.

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND FLUID. The CONFIRMED US-RUSSIA-UKRAINE MEETING in Saudi Arabia is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT, and CLOSE MONITORING is crucial. The EXPANDED DRONE THREAT requires IMMEDIATE ACTION to extend air defense alerts. The IMPACT OF WEATHER on logistics is a GROWING CONCERN that needs CAREFUL ASSESSMENT. All previous key developments and recommendations remain relevant, with adjusted priorities as indicated.