Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 15, 2025, 06:36 UTC

Changes Since 06:06 UTC

1. AIRPORT RESTRICTIONS LIFTED IN MORE RUSSIAN CITIES (CONFIRMED, TASS):

   • TASS reports that restrictions on aircraft reception and release were lifted at the airports of Astrakhan, Vladikavkaz, and Grozny at 08:45 Moscow time.
   • Assessment: This further reinforces the trend of returning to normal air traffic operations in Russia, suggesting a DECREASED IMMEDIATE THREAT from drone attacks in these specific areas. However, the OVERALL DRONE THREAT REMAINS as evidenced by continued activity and reports.

2. UKRAINIAN GENERAL STAFF SUMMARY (CONFIRMED, Оперативний ЗСУ):

   • Оперативний ЗСУ reiterates the main points from the Ukrainian General Staff report (previously analyzed):
     • 112 combat clashes.
     • 36 clashes on the Pokrovsk direction.
     • 23 attacks repelled on the Kursk direction.
     • 14 attacks on the Novopavlivsk direction.
     • 91 guided aerial bombs (KABs) dropped on Ukraine, and 40 on Kursk.
     • 2436 kamikaze drones used, and 5809 shellings.
     • Ukrainian forces hit a UAV ground control point, five personnel concentration areas, two artillery systems, one radar, and one electronic warfare station.
   • Assessment: This RECONFIRMS the high level of combat activity and the INTENSE RUSSIAN PRESSURE across multiple fronts. The specific mention of 40 KABs dropped on Kursk (Russian territory) is UNUSUAL and REQUIRES FURTHER INVESTIGATION. It could be a reporting error, a misinterpretation of data, or, less likely, a deliberate action by Russian forces for some strategic or propaganda purpose.

3. FATAL TRAFFIC ACCIDENT NEAR KHARTSYZSK (CONFIRMED, Mash на Донбассе):

   • Mash на Донбассе reports that a car crash near Khartsyzsk resulted in the death of the car's driver. The driver of a bus (Donetsk-Voronezh route) and a passenger from the car ("Honda") were hospitalized. The report claims the car swerved into oncoming traffic, causing the collision.
   • Assessment: While a tragic incident, this is UNLIKELY TO HAVE DIRECT MILITARY SIGNIFICANCE. It's likely a traffic accident, albeit within a conflict zone. It MAY highlight the STRAIN ON LOCAL RESOURCES (medical services, emergency response) due to the ongoing conflict. It COULD also indirectly impact civilian movement if the road is a major thoroughfare.

4. CLAIMED UKRAINIAN STRIKE ON AMMUNITION DEPOT IN TOKMAK (REPORTED, Оперативний ЗСУ):

   • Оперативний ЗСУ shows the video of an explosion and claims that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian ammunition depot near temporarily occupied Tokmak.
   • Assessment: If confirmed, this represents a SIGNIFICANT UKRAINIAN SUCCESS in DISRUPTING RUSSIAN LOGISTICS. Ammunition depots are HIGH-VALUE TARGETS, and their destruction can significantly impact enemy combat capabilities. URGENT VERIFICATION REQUIRED.

5. CLAIMED RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACK ON UKRAINIAN SOLDIER (REPORTED, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА):

   • АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shows the video of a Russian drone attack on a Ukrainian soldier taking shelter.
   • Assessment: This video demonstrates the ongoing use of FPV DRONES IN TACTICAL COMBAT. It highlights the VULNERABILITY OF INDIVIDUAL SOLDIERS to drone attacks, even when seeking cover. The PSYCHOLOGICAL IMPACT of such attacks should not be underestimated.

6. CLAIMED RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACKS IN ULAKLY (REPORTED, Воин DV): * Воин DV reports that drone operators of the 39th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade, 68th Army Corps, struck a Ukrainian temporary deployment point in Ulakly. They claim a later drone strike destroyed a vehicle carrying ammunition and personnel. * Assessment: This claim, if confirmed, signifies EFFECTIVE RUSSIAN DRONE OPERATIONS and their ability to TARGET BOTH PERSONNEL AND LOGISTICS. The targeting of a "temporary deployment point" suggests REAL-TIME INTELLIGENCE CAPABILITIES. URGENT VERIFICATION REQUIRED.

7. UKRAINIAN OFFICIAL'S STATEMENT ON US AID (CONFIRMED, РБК-Україна):

   • President Zelensky stated that Ukraine would have little chance of survival without US military support.
   • Assessment: This underscores the vital importance of US Military Aid.

8. UKRAINIAN OFFICIAL'S STATEMENT ON RUSSIA TALKS (CONFIRMED, РБК-Україна):

   • The head of the Office of the President of Ukraine (OP), Andriy Yermak, has declared that Ukraine is not yet ready for a meeting with Russia, stating that such a moment has not yet arrived.
   • Assessment: This further solidifies Ukraine's position regarding negotiation.

9. EXPLOSION IN VOLGOGRAD (CONFIRMED, РБК-Україна):

   • Explosions were reported in Volgograd, near a refinery.
   • Assessment: This confirms previous reports of attacks.

10. FIRE IN KALUGA OBLAST (CONFIRMED, РБК-Україна):

    • A fire broke out at an industrial enterprise in Kaluga Oblast, Russia, due to a drone attack.
    • Assessment: This confirms previous reports of attacks.

11. DRONE ATTACK ANALYSIS IN VOLGOGRAD (REPORTED, ASTRA):

    • The drone strike in Volgograd occurred near a building where military personnel live.
    • Assessment: This strengthens the theory that drones are targeting military personal and supplies.

12. UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKES NEAR KHOTIMLYA, SOLONITSIVKA, BORSHCHOVA AND IVASHKY (REPORTED, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА):

    • Multiple drone and FPV drone strikes were reported near these areas.
    • Assessment: This demonstrates the widespread use of drones.

Updated Situation Summary

1. CONTINUED HIGH-INTENSITY COMBAT ACROSS MULTIPLE FRONTS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Ukrainian General Staff reports (and reiterations) confirm ongoing, intense fighting, with the Pokrovsk, Kursk, and Novopavlivsk directions seeing the most activity.
2. POTENTIAL MAJOR RUSSIAN ADVANCE AT YAMPOLIVKA (EXTREME PRIORITY, REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION): Conflicting reports STILL persist. This remains a TOP PRIORITY for verification.
3. WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACKS ON RUSSIAN TERRITORY (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Confirmed drone attacks continue, with reports of impacts in Volgograd and Kaluga. Airport restrictions being lifted suggests a TEMPORARY DECREASE in immediate threat, but the overall threat REMAINS HIGH.
4. CLAIMED SUCCESSFUL UKRAINIAN STRIKE ON RUSSIAN AMMUNITION DEPOT (HIGH PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): If confirmed, this would be a SIGNIFICANT BLOW to Russian logistics.
5. RUSSIAN AND UKRAINIAN FORCES ACTIVELY UTILIZING DRONES (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Multiple reports confirm the continued and widespread use of drones by both sides for reconnaissance, targeting, and direct attacks.
6. POSSIBLE RUSSIAN "OWN GOAL" WITH KABs IN KURSK (HIGH PRIORITY, REQUIRES INVESTIGATION): The report of 40 KABs dropped on Kursk (Russian territory) is HIGHLY UNUSUAL and needs clarification.

Updated Recommendations

1. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT, WITH THE FOLLOWING ADJUSTMENTS AND ADDITIONS:

2. INVESTIGATE REPORT OF KABs DROPPED ON KURSK (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Determine the veracity of the report.
   • If confirmed, investigate the circumstances: Was it an error, a deliberate action, or a misinterpretation of data?
   • Assess the potential implications: Damage, casualties, propaganda value for either side.

3. VERIFY CLAIMED UKRAINIAN STRIKE ON TOKMAK AMMUNITION DEPOT (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Utilize all available intelligence assets to confirm the strike and assess the damage.
   • Determine the impact on Russian logistical capabilities in the area.

4. MONITOR FOR CONTINUED DRONE ACTIVITY (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):

   • Maintain a high state of alert for drone attacks across Ukraine and along the border with Russia.
   • Continue efforts to improve early warning systems, response times, and electronic warfare capabilities.

The situation remains EXTREMELY DYNAMIC AND DANGEROUS. The POTENTIAL RUSSIAN ADVANCE AT YAMPOLIVKA, the CONTINUED WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACKS, and the CLAIMED UKRAINIAN STRIKE ON A RUSSIAN AMMUNITION DEPOT are the MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERNS. The UNUSUAL REPORT of KABs dropped on Kursk REQUIRES URGENT CLARIFICATION. CONTINUED VIGILANCE, RAPID RESPONSE CAPABILITIES, AND EFFECTIVE INTELLIGENCE GATHERING remain crucial.