Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 15, 2025, 06:06 UTC

Changes Since 05:36 UTC

1. REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCE AT YAMPOLIVKA (REPORTED, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны):

   • Операция Z claims Russian forces have liberated Yampolivka and are expanding their bridgehead on the right bank of the Zherebets River, advancing towards Lyman. They claim a depth of advance of over 1 km and cite Ukrainian footage showing attacks on Russian positions on the southern outskirts of Yampolivka.
   • Assessment: This report REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION and is from a PRO-RUSSIAN SOURCE. If confirmed, this represents a SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN ADVANCE and a shift in control along the Lyman front. The claimed depth of advance is NOTABLE. The reliance on Ukrainian footage as "confirmation" is a COMMON PROPAGANDA TACTIC, but it does suggest some level of Russian presence in the area. This DIRECTLY CONTRADICTS the Ukrainian General Staff report, which claims eight attacks were REPULSED near Novoserhiivka, Zelenyi Hai, Bohuslavka, Nove, Hrekivka, and Kolodiazi (see point 9 below). This discrepancy is CRITICAL and needs IMMEDIATE INVESTIGATION.

2. CONFIRMED CIVILIAN INJURED IN BELOVSKY DISTRICT, KURSK OBLAST (CONFIRMED, TASS):

   • TASS reports that a civilian was injured on February 14th due to the detonation of an explosive device dropped from a Ukrainian drone on a private house in the Belovsky district of Kursk Oblast. The report cites regional governor Khinshtein.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS Ukrainian drone activity within Russian territory and resulting civilian harm. This adds to the pattern of cross-border attacks and highlights the vulnerability of civilian populations. It is a VIOLATION OF INTERNATIONAL HUMANITARIAN LAW to target civilians.

3. UKRAINIAN GENERAL STAFF REPORT (CONFIRMED, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ):

   • The Ukrainian General Staff provides a detailed operational update as of 08:00 on February 15, 2025. Key points:
     • 112 combat clashes in the past day.
     • 66 Russian airstrikes, including 91 guided aerial bombs, 2436 kamikaze drones, and 5809 shellings of Ukrainian positions and settlements.
     • Airstrikes reported in Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Donetsk Oblasts.
     • Ukrainian forces hit a Russian UAV ground control point, five personnel concentration areas, two artillery systems, one radar, and one electronic warfare station.
     • Specific combat activity reported along multiple fronts:
       • Kharkiv Direction: One clash near Hlyboke.
       • Kupyansk Direction: Four attacks near Zahryzove and Hlushkivka.
       • Lyman Direction: Eight attacks near Novoserhiivka, Zelenyi Hai, Bohuslavka, Nove, Hrekivka, and Kolodiazi. *(This DIRECTLY CONTRADICTS the claim of Russian capture of Yampolivka (see Point 1).)
       • Siversk Direction: Three attacks near Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamyanske, and Hryhorivka.
       • Kramatorsk Direction: Three clashes near Chasiv Yar.
       • Toretsk Direction: 11 attacks near Toretsk, Krymske, and Shcherbynivka.
       • Pokrovsk Direction: 36 attacks stopped near multiple settlements.
       • Novopavlivsk Direction: 14 attacks near Kostyantynopol and Burlatsky.
       • Orikhiv, Prydniprovsk, and Huliaipil Directions: No combat clashes recorded.
       • Kursk Direction: 23 clashes, 30 airstrikes, 40 guided bombs, 393 artillery shelling incidents.
     • No signs of offensive group formation on the Volyn and Polissia directions.
     • Reported Russian losses: 1180 personnel, 11 tanks, 17 armored fighting vehicles, 59 artillery systems, 1 MLRS, 1 air defense system, 117 operational-tactical UAVs, 127 vehicles, and 2 units of special equipment.
   • Assessment: The Ukrainian General Staff report provides a COMPREHENSIVE OVERVIEW of the situation, highlighting intense fighting across multiple fronts. The HIGH NUMBER OF REPORTED CLASHES, AIRSTRIKES, AND SHELLING indicates a HIGH LEVEL OF COMBAT ACTIVITY. The DISCREPANCY between this report and the claim of Russian capture of Yampolivka is CRITICAL and requires IMMEDIATE INVESTIGATION. The reported Russian losses are SIGNIFICANT, but require INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION.

4. KRYVYI RIH SITUATION UPDATE (REPORTED, Олександр Вілкул):

   • No shelling in Kryvyi Rih district.
   • Marhanets community was shelled by heavy artillery in the Nikopol district.
   • No casualties reported.
   • Essential services in Kryvyi Rih are operating normally.
   • Assessment: This confirms a return to normal operations after previous incidents. The shelling in the Nikopol district shows continued Russian activity.

5. VOLGOGRAD DRONE ATTACK: FURTHER DETAILS & CLAIMS (REPORTED, Оперативний ЗСУ, STERNENKO):

   • Multiple sources report on the drone attack in Volgograd, with claims and counterclaims:
     • Оперативний ЗСУ shows a video of a drone, allegedly suppressed by electronic warfare (EW), crashing into a high-rise building. They repeat claims of 40 downed drones in total, with 17 in Volgograd Oblast.
     • STERNENKO also reports on the attack, stating the target might have been an oil refinery. They mention the governor's claim of all drones being shot down and only "debris" causing a small fire. They also cite reports that the drones were launched from within Russia.
     • ASTRA reports that drone "debris" hit the building, injuring one person, and that a fire occurred in an industrial zone.
   • Assessment: The consistent reporting of a drone impacting a building in Volgograd, even if suppressed by EW, CONTRADICTS earlier claims that only DEBRIS hit the building. This indicates a FAILURE OF RUSSIAN AIR DEFENSES to completely prevent damage. The conflicting claims about the number of downed drones and the location of their launch point highlight the INFORMATION WARFARE aspect of the conflict. The potential targeting of an oil refinery is SIGNIFICANT and, if confirmed, suggests a focus on disrupting Russian energy infrastructure. The claim of drones launched from within Russia, if true, would be HIGHLY UNUSUAL and require URGENT INVESTIGATION.

6. ROSTOV OBLAST DRONE DEBRIS (REPORTED, Оперативний ЗСУ):

   • A video shows wreckage in the Rostov region, identified as drone debris.
   • Assessment: This serves as confirmation that Ukrainian drones targeted that region.

7. AIRPORT RESTRICTIONS UPDATE (CONFIRMED, TASS):

   • Restrictions at Ulyanovsk airport were lifted at 08:00 Moscow time.
   • Restrictions at Kaluga airport were lifted at 08:00 Moscow time.
   • Assessment: These measures were initially implemented in response to drones, and lifting them suggests a return to normal operations.

8. CLAIMED RUSSIAN LAUNCH OF UAVS FROM YAMPOLIVKA (REPORTED, STERNENKO):

   • It is being reported that sabotage and reconnaissance groups launched UAVs into the Volgograd region.
   • Assessment: The claim needs confirmation, but represents a significant development.

Updated Situation Summary

1. POTENTIAL MAJOR RUSSIAN ADVANCE AT YAMPOLIVKA (EXTREME PRIORITY, REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION): Conflicting reports from pro-Russian and Ukrainian sources regarding the control of Yampolivka. This requires IMMEDIATE AND INTENSE INVESTIGATION.
2. CONFIRMED WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACKS ON RUSSIAN TERRITORY (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Confirmed drone attacks in multiple Russian regions (Volgograd, Kaluga, Rostov, Kursk), with civilian casualties and damage. This highlights the FAILURE OF RUSSIAN AIR DEFENSES and the INCREASING VULNERABILITY of Russian territory.
3. INTENSE FIGHTING CONTINUES ACROSS MULTIPLE FRONTS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The Ukrainian General Staff report confirms ongoing, intense fighting across a wide front, with numerous clashes, airstrikes, and shelling.
4. AIRPORT RESTRICTIONS LIFTED (CONFIRMED, SIGNIFICANT): The lifting of restrictions at Ulyanovsk and Kaluga airports suggests a reduced immediate threat, but the overall drone threat remains high.

Updated Recommendations

1. IMMEDIATELY VERIFY STATUS OF YAMPOLIVKA (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy all available intelligence assets (satellite imagery, drone reconnaissance, human intelligence) to determine the current control of Yampolivka.
   • Cross-reference information from Ukrainian and pro-Russian sources with independent data.
   • Assess the disposition of Ukrainian and Russian forces in the area.
   • Determine the potential consequences of a confirmed Russian capture of Yampolivka, including its impact on Ukrainian defensive lines and supply routes.

2. ENHANCE AIR DEFENSE ACROSS UKRAINE AND BORDER REGIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):

   • Maintain a high state of alert for drone attacks across Ukraine and along the border with Russia.
   • Prioritize the protection of civilian populations and critical infrastructure.
   • Investigate discrepancies in reported numbers of downed drones.
   • Improve early warning systems and response times.
   • Deploy additional air defense assets to vulnerable areas.
   • Evaluate and improve the effectiveness of electronic warfare (EW) systems.

3. INVESTIGATE CLAIMS OF DRONES LAUNCHED FROM WITHIN RUSSIA (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • If true, this has to do with Ukrainian special forces that were infiltrated into Russia. Increase counterintelligence efforts.

4. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT: All other previously issued recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated above. The situation is EXTREMELY DYNAMIC AND DANGEROUS. The POTENTIAL RUSSIAN ADVANCE AT YAMPOLIVKA and the CONFIRMED WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACKS require IMMEDIATE AND FOCUSED ATTENTION.