Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 15, 2025, 05:36 UTC

Changes Since 05:07 UTC

1. CAPTURED UKRAINIAN SOLDIER TESTIMONY (REPORTED, COLONELCASSAD):

   • Colonelcassad released a video of an allegedly captured Ukrainian soldier, Alexey Yashchenko, claiming he was mobilized despite being partially deaf. He reports being wounded, denied evacuation, and threatened with execution if he retreated. He claims he and seven others surrendered to Russian forces in the Kursk region.
   • Assessment: This report is HIGHLY LIKELY RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA aimed at demoralizing Ukrainian forces and portraying the Ukrainian military as incompetent and uncaring. The soldier's claims REQUIRE CAREFUL SCRUTINY and should be treated with EXTREME CAUTION. However, if even partially true, it would highlight potential issues with Ukrainian conscription practices, medical evaluations, and battlefield leadership.

2. REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR KURAKHOVO (REPORTED, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны):

   • Операция Z claims a critical situation for Ukrainian forces near Kurakhovo, reporting the loss of Dachne and potential encirclement. They claim Russian forces are advancing in southern Ulakly and Konstantynopil, and taking positions near Andriivka.
   • Assessment: This report REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION. It is from a PRO-RUSSIAN SOURCE and should be treated with skepticism. If confirmed, it would represent a SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN ADVANCE and a MAJOR THREAT to Ukrainian forces in the area. However, Ukrainian sources have not confirmed these claims.

3. MEDVEDCHUK ON CONDITIONS FOR PEACE (REPORTED, TASS):

   • TASS reports that Viktor Medvedchuk stated that peace in Ukraine is only possible if Russian forces control territories currently under Ukrainian control.
   • Assessment: This statement reflects the RUSSIAN POSITION and is NOT A NEUTRAL ASSESSMENT. It reinforces the Russian narrative that military conquest is the only path to resolution.

4. VOLGOGRAD DRONE ATTACK VIDEO (REPORTED, Оперативний ЗСУ):

   • Оперативний ЗСУ released a video purportedly showing a drone, suppressed by electronic warfare, crashing into a high-rise building in Volgograd. They reiterate claims of 40 downed drones, including 17 in Volgograd Oblast.
   • Assessment: The video REQUIRES VERIFICATION, but if accurate, it CONTRADICTS earlier reports that claimed only drone DEBRIS struck the building. This further highlights the INABILITY OF RUSSIAN AIR DEFENSES to fully protect against drone attacks.

5. "KOVYOR" PLAN ACTIVATED AT RUSSIAN AIRPORTS (REPORTED, Оперативний ЗСУ):

   • Reports indicate the "Kovyor" (Carpet) plan, which grounds all civilian aircraft, was activated at airports in Astrakhan, Vladikavkaz, Grozny, and Ulyanovsk due to the drone threat.
   • Assessment: The discrepancy between this, and the ASTRA claims of the same plan is present, but with an additional airport.

6. KYIV OBLAST DRONE DEBRIS FOUND (REPORTED, РБК-Україна):

   • The РБК-Україна reports the discovery of drone debris, identified as a "Gerbera" drone, about 300 meters from the shore in Kyiv Oblast.
   • Assessment: This serves as a confirmation of the ongoing conflict and use of drones on both sides.

7. NIKOPOL REGION SHELLING (CONFIRMED, 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА)):

   • The head of the Dnipropetrovsk Regional Military Administration confirms that the town of Marhanets was shelled by Russian troops from Grad MLRS systems.
   • Assessment: This is a confirmed violation of the laws of armed conflict, as artillery bombardment in civilian areas is prohibited.

8. MALICIOUS APP TARGETING FAMILIES OF MISSING SOLDIERS (REPORTED, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺):

   • The post warns of a malicious app posing as a tool for finding missing soldiers in the Special Military Operation (SMO) zone. It claims the app steals data and money from users.
   • Assessment: This serves as a warning of an online scam.

Updated Situation Summary

1. POTENTIAL PROPAGANDA FROM CAPTURED SOLDIER TESTIMONY (HIGH PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): The reported claims of the captured Ukrainian soldier need CAREFUL SCRUTINY but could indicate problems within the Ukrainian military.
2. REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR KURAKHOVO (EXTREME PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): The claimed Russian advance and potential encirclement of Ukrainian forces NEED URGENT CONFIRMATION.
3. CONFIRMED CIVILIAN FATALITY IN VOLGOGRAD DRONE STRIKE (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The death of a civilian in Volgograd due to a drone strike SIGNIFICANTLY ESCALATES the situation and highlights the FAILURE OF RUSSIAN AIR DEFENSES.
4. RUSSIAN AIRPORT RESTRICTIONS LARGELY LIFTED, "KOVYOR" PLAN ACTIVATED AT OTHERS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The lifting of restrictions suggests a reduced immediate threat, but activation of the "Kovyor" plan at several airports indicates continued high alert.
5. INTENSE FIGHTING CONTINUES IN ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Confirmed heavy bombardment, casualties, and damage in the Zaporizhzhia region.
6. UKRAINIAN CLAIMS OF SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN LOSSES (HIGH PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Ukrainian claims of high Russian casualties and equipment losses need CAREFUL SCRUTINY, but if even partially true, would indicate significant Ukrainian battlefield successes.
7. RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF STRIKES IN ODESA OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Reports of Russian strikes targeting Ukrainian forces and port infrastructure in Odesa Oblast NEED URGENT VERIFICATION.
8. NO RUSSIAN WARSHIPS IN BLACK OR AZOV SEAS (CONFIRMED, SIGNIFICANT): The confirmed absence of Russian warships in the Black and Azov Seas represents a MAJOR CHANGE in the maritime situation, but its cause and implications require further analysis.
9. ALL PREVIOUS ASSESSMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT: The overall situation remains extremely dynamic and dangerous.

Updated Recommendations

1. INVESTIGATE CAPTURED SOLDIER CLAIMS (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Attempt to verify the identity of the captured soldier and the circumstances of his capture.
   • Analyze his claims for consistency and plausibility.
   • Compare his statements with other intelligence on Ukrainian military practices and morale.
   • Assess the potential impact of this report on Ukrainian troop morale and public opinion.

2. VERIFY REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR KURAKHOVO (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Utilize all available intelligence assets to confirm or refute the claimed Russian advance.
   • Assess the current disposition of Ukrainian forces in the area.
   • Determine the potential consequences of a Russian breakthrough in this sector.

3. CONTINUE MONITORING AIR DEFENSE SITUATION (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):

   • Maintain a high state of alert across Ukraine and along the border with Russia.
   • Prioritize the protection of civilian populations and critical infrastructure.
   • Investigate discrepancies in reported numbers of downed drones and airport restrictions.

4. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT: All other previously issued recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated above. The situation remains EXTREMELY DYNAMIC AND DANGEROUS. The POTENTIAL RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR KURAKHOVO and the CONTINUED DRONE THREAT require IMMEDIATE ATTENTION. The CAPTURED SOLDIER'S CLAIMS and their potential impact on morale need CAREFUL ANALYSIS.