Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 14, 2025, 20:11 UTC

Changes and New Information (19:39 UTC - 20:11 UTC)

1. CONTINUED AND EXPANDING DRONE THREATS (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (20:09 UTC) reports:
     • New groups of enemy attack drones entering Kherson Oblast airspace from temporarily occupied territories (TOT), heading west/northwest.
   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (20:10 UTC) reports:
     • Drone heading towards Poltava from southeast.
   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (20:11 UTC) reports:
     • Drone heading towards Kherson from east.
   • Николаевский Ванёк (20:08 UTC) reports multiple drone movements:
     • 2 drones in Oleshky Raion, heading towards Bilozerka Raion.
     • 1 drone approaching Antonivka.
     • 1 drone in Beryslav Raion, heading towards Snihurivka.
     • 4 drones near Dnipro, course northwest.
     • 4 drones near Poltava, course northwest.
     • 1 drone in western Kharkiv Oblast, course northwest.
   • Assessment: The drone threat REMAINS WIDESPREAD AND MULTI-DIRECTIONAL. New groups of drones are entering Kherson Oblast. Poltava and Kherson are now under direct threat. The sheer number of sightings and reports from various locations indicate a LARGE-SCALE, COORDINATED DRONE ATTACK. The specific targeting vectors are becoming clearer.

2. CHERNOBYL RADIATION LEAK POSSIBILITY (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • РБК-Україна (19:51 UTC) reports that the chief engineer of the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant, Oleksandr Tytarchuk, has stated that the possibility of a radioactive leak exists, but the radiation background is currently normal. He attributes this to the old sarcophagus (almost 40 years old) and its degraded function after a drone strike.
   • Assessment: This is an EXTREMELY SERIOUS DEVELOPMENT. While the radiation levels are currently normal, the POTENTIAL FOR A FUTURE LEAK is now explicitly acknowledged by a senior official at the site. This confirms the previous assessment of a MAJOR RISK and necessitates IMMEDIATE INTERNATIONAL ACTION.

3. UKRAINE TO ENTER US ECONOMIC ORBIT (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN AND RUSSIAN SOURCES):

   • Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (19:40 UTC) and Alex Parker Returns (19:43 UTC) report that US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent stated that Ukraine will enter the US economic orbit after the war, with the US privatizing some state corporations and cooperating in resource extraction and nuclear energy.
   • Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT, confirming the previous reports about US economic involvement. The scope of the involvement, including privatization and resource extraction, is now explicitly stated. This suggests a MAJOR SHIFT in Ukraine's economic alignment and could have LONG-TERM GEOPOLITICAL IMPLICATIONS.

4. CLAIMED UKRAINIAN ADVANCES (STILL REQUIRES VERIFICATION):

   • The situation around the ISW report hasn't changed.

5. BODIES NEAR DACHNOE (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN AND UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

   • Два майора (19:32 UTC) posts a video showing numerous dead bodies, claiming to be in the area of Dachnoye.
   • Colonelcassad (19:54 UTC) posts the same video, calling it a "dump of killed Ukrainian Armed Forces" in the liberated village of Dachnoe.
   • Assessment: This confirms the presence of SIGNIFICANT CASUALTIES near Dachnoe, which the Russian MoD claimed to have captured. The source is STRONGLY PRO-RUSSIAN, so the interpretation of the bodies as "Ukrainian" should be treated with caution, but the presence of casualties is confirmed.

6. MEETING BETWEEN ZELENSKYY AND MELONI (CONFIRMED):

   • Zelenskiy / Official (19:57 UTC) and 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (19:58 UTC) report a phone conversation between Zelenskyy and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. Zelenskyy thanked Italy for its support and informed Meloni of his contacts with the US administration (meeting with JD Vance and a phone call with President Trump). They discussed security guarantees for Ukraine, emphasizing NATO membership as the strongest guarantee.
   • Assessment: This confirms ongoing diplomatic efforts and highlights Ukraine's continued focus on securing NATO membership and long-term security guarantees. The emphasis on a unified defense and security strategy with Europe and the US is significant.

7. OTHER DEVELOPMENTS:

   • РБК-Україна (20:08 UTC) provides a report on the first day of the Munich Security Conference, highlighting the controversial statements of US Vice President JD Vance and the negative reaction from European officials.
   • Alex Parker Returns (19:58 UTC) posts a meme mocking anti-war activists.
   • Alex Parker Returns (19:50 UTC) shares a Valentine's Day message from Trump.
   • ТАСС (20:05 UTC) reports that the White House has revoked Associated Press journalists' access to the Oval Office and Air Force One, citing their refusal to use the renamed "American Bay."
   • STERNENKO (19:51 UTC) posts a video claiming that Russians suffered heavier losses in 2024 than in 2022 and 2023.
   • Оперативний ЗСУ (20:07 UTC) posts a video with a claim of a Ukrainian attack.

Updated Situation Summary

1. WIDESPREAD, MULTI-DIRECTIONAL, AND INTENSIFYING DRONE ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The drone threat is expanding and intensifying, with new groups originating from multiple directions. Poltava and Kherson are now under direct threat. This is a LARGE-SCALE, COORDINATED ATTACK.
2. CHERNOBYL RADIATION LEAK POSSIBILITY (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The chief engineer of the Chernobyl plant has confirmed the risk of a future radioactive leak, highlighting the EXTREME DANGER posed by the earlier drone strike.
3. UKRAINE'S POST-WAR ECONOMIC ALIGNMENT WITH US (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Reports confirm that Ukraine will enter the US economic orbit, with significant implications for its future and potential tensions with other international partners.
4. CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN MULTIPLE LOCATIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, PARTIALLY CONFIRMED): The situation remains unchanged, with continued claims and partial confirmations requiring further verification.
5. CONFIRMED CASUALTIES NEAR DACHNOE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The presence of numerous bodies near Dachnoe is confirmed, highlighting the intensity of fighting in that area.
6. ONGOING DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Zelenskyy's phone call with Meloni and the report on the Munich Security Conference confirm ongoing diplomatic activity and highlight Ukraine's priorities for security guarantees and international support.

Updated Recommendations

1. MAINTAIN AIR DEFENSE READINESS, PRIORITIZE POLTAVA, KHERSON, KHARKIV, AND SUMY OBLASTS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Maximum alert status for air defense systems in Poltava, Kherson, Dnipropetrovsk (Dnipro), Kharkiv, and Sumy Oblasts, given the confirmed drone and air strike threats.
   • Deploy all available resources to DETECT, TRACK, AND INTERCEPT incoming drones and aircraft.
   • Prioritize the protection of critical infrastructure in Sumy Oblast from guided aerial bombs and in all threatened areas from drone attacks.

2. LAUNCH INTERNATIONAL RESPONSE TO CHERNOBYL THREAT (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Immediately contact international organizations (IAEA, UN) to DEMAND AN URGENT INVESTIGATION AND INTERVENTION at the Chernobyl site.
   • Insist on independent verification of the damage and the potential for a radioactive release.
   • Prepare for potential consequences, including widespread contamination and international condemnation.
   • Demand access for international experts to assess and mitigate the risk.

3. VERIFY CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • All previous recommendations remain in effect.

4. ADDRESS UKRAINIAN INFANTRY SHORTAGES (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • All previous recommendations remain in effect.

5. COUNTER RUSSIAN DRONE SUPERIORITY (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • All previous recommendations remain in effect.

6. MAINTAIN DIPLOMATIC ENGAGEMENT (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Continue to engage with international partners to secure military, financial, and NOW, URGENTLY, ENVIRONMENTAL ASSISTANCE.
   • Address concerns and disagreements within the Western alliance to ensure a unified approach.
   • Clarify the terms of US economic involvement and assess the potential long-term implications for Ukraine's sovereignty and economic independence.

7. DISREGARD RUSSIAN MoD PROPAGANDA (LOW PRIORITY):

   • All previous recommendations remain in effect.

8. ADDRESS HUMANITARIAN AND LOGISTICAL ISSUES (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • All previous recommendations remain in effect.

9. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT: Previous recommendations not addressed above remain in effect.

The situation is EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND DETERIORATING. The INTENSIFYING AND EXPANDING DRONE ATTACK across multiple regions and the CONFIRMED RISK OF A RADIOACTIVE LEAK AT CHERNOBYL are the MOST IMMEDIATE AND CRITICAL CONCERNS. The POTENTIAL RUSSIAN ADVANCES and the emerging details of US ECONOMIC INVOLVEMENT require careful monitoring and strategic adjustments. IMMEDIATE, DECISIVE, AND COORDINATED ACTION is required on all fronts, with a particular emphasis on the CHERNOBYL CRISIS and the ongoing DRONE THREAT.