Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 14, 2025, 19:38 UTC

Changes and New Information (19:09 UTC - 19:38 UTC)

1. CONTINUED AND EXPANDING DRONE THREATS (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (19:12 UTC) reports:

     • New groups of enemy attack drones entering Zaporizhzhia Oblast airspace from temporarily occupied territories (TOT), heading north/northwest.
     • Enemy drones in eastern Zaporizhzhia Oblast, course - north/northwest.
     • Enemy drones in the southeast of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, course - north/northwest (vector - Dnipro).
     • Drones in the south and central parts of Kharkiv Oblast, course - north.

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (19:25 UTC) reports: * New groups of enemy attack drones enter the airspace of Kharkiv Oblast in the north from Belgorod, course - south/southwest.

   • Assessment: The drone threat REMAINS WIDESPREAD, MULTI-DIRECTIONAL, AND INTENSIFYING. New groups of drones are still entering, indicating a PROLONGED ATTACK. Kharkiv now faces threats from both the NORTH (Belgorod) and SOUTH. The threat to Dnipro PERSISTS. The addition of groups entering NORTHERN Kharkiv Oblast from Belgorod adds a NEW DIMENSION to the threat.

2. AIR STRIKE THREAT, SUMY OBLAST (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (19:26 UTC, 19:28 UTC) reports:

     • Activity of enemy tactical aviation in the north-eastern direction.
     • Threat of the use of air weapons for front-line areas.
     • Launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation in Sumy Oblast.

   • Assessment: This represents a NEW AND SERIOUS THREAT. Guided aerial bombs are significantly more destructive than drones and pose a MAJOR RISK to Ukrainian forces and infrastructure in Sumy Oblast.

3. RUSSIAN ADVANCES NEAR VELYKA NOVOSILKA (CLAIMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Сливочный каприз (19:26 UTC) reports active hostilities near Velyka Novosilka, claiming a Russian motorized rifle unit attack towards positions in Novyi Komar-Rozdolne. Claims a Russian advance of over 2.5 km along the Mokri Yaly River. Provides coordinates: 47.903336, 36.857795.
   • Assessment: Requires verification. This matches the claim of Russian advancement from an earlier report.

4. RUSSIAN CONTROL OF DVOYECHNAYA AND OSKOL RIVER BRIDGEHEAD (CLAIMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, SUPPORTED BY UKRAINIAN-ALIGNED SOURCE):

   • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (19:11 UTC), citing a Ukrainian-aligned source (DeepState), reports that the Russian army has created and is expanding a powerful bridgehead on the right bank of the Oskol River, advancing towards Kupyansk. Claims Russian advances near Dvurechnaya and Novomlynsk, including near Figolovka (claimed to be under Russian control) and another area in Dvurechnaya. Reports Ukrainian problems with infantry shortages and Russian FPV drone superiority.
   • Assessment: This is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT if confirmed. The confirmation from a Ukrainian-aligned source (even if relayed by a Russian source) adds SIGNIFICANT CREDIBILITY to the claim. The loss of bridgeheads on the Oskol River and advances towards Kupyansk would represent a SERIOUS SETBACK for Ukraine. The reported Ukrainian infantry shortages and Russian drone superiority are CRITICAL CONCERNS.

5. RUSSIAN MoD REPORTS DESTROYING 725 UKRAINIAN DRONES OVER PAST WEEK (CLAIMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • MoD Russia (19:22 UTC) claims Russian air defense systems shot down 725 Ukrainian fixed-wing drones over the past week.
   • Assessment: This is almost certainly PROPAGANDA. Such a high number is EXTREMELY UNLIKELY and should be treated with EXTREME SKEPTICISM.

6. OTHER DEVELOPMENTS:

   • Alex Parker Returns (19:10 UTC) posts a photo and statement regarding Bohdan Krotevych, a Ukrainian soldier previously captured at Azovstal and later returned in a prisoner exchange. The post criticizes Krotevych for making strong statements after his capture and release.
   • Рыбарь (19:11 UTC) comments on an image, suggesting that the depiction of a battle scene (the battle of Kalki) serves to promote the idea of a Turkic civilization being the dominant force in the region, connecting it to Turkish educational programs.
   • АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (19:12 UTC) posts a video likely showing Russian special forces ("Rybinsk Specnaz") inside a vehicle.
   • Старше Эдды (19:15 UTC) reports on former Latvian Defense Minister Artis Pabriks stating that NATO's value is falling and suggesting the creation of a "Baltic alliance".
   • ASTRA (19:15 UTC) reports on Zelenskyy's rejection of a US offer for 50% of Ukraine's mineral resources.
   • РБК-Україна (19:18 UTC) reports on a meeting between Zelenskyy and the Danish Prime Minister, with Zelenskyy thanking Denmark for military aid.
   • Рыбарь (19:23 UTC) provides a report and map on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, noting continued fighting and humanitarian issues.
   • РБК-Україна (19:24 UTC) reports that the German Foreign Minister has rejected Trump's idea of Russia returning to the G7.
   • Colonelcassad (19:24 UTC) posts a video of a Koran burning in London.
   • Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (19:29 UTC) posts a video with a request for donations to purchase a UAZ vehicle for a VDV unit.
   • НгП раZVедка (19:29 UTC) posts an image of a soldier with an AK rifle.
   • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (19:30 UTC) posts a video claiming to show a Russian soldier being targeted and killed by a Ukrainian drone.
   • Воин DV (19:31 UTC) posts a message of birthday greetings to a soldier.
   • Два майора (19:32 UTC) posts a video showing numerous dead bodies, claiming to be in the area of Dachnoye, which the Russian MoD claimed to have captured.
   • РБК-Україна (19:33 UTC) posts a "valentine" from the White House about deporting illegal immigrants.
   • Fighterbomber (19:36 UTC) posts a video related to drone operations, claiming February 14th is the day of Saint Tryphon, patron saint of drone operators.
   • Оперативний ЗСУ (19:38 UTC) reports that Saudi Arabia has agreed to host a summit between Trump and Putin.
   • Colonelcassad (19:38 UTC) posts a video of a speech by Vance.
   • Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (19:38 UTC) posts a video from Bryansk Oblast, showing someone claiming to be taking a part of a Pantsir air defense system to be sold for scrap metal.

Updated Situation Summary

1. WIDESPREAD, MULTI-DIRECTIONAL, AND INTENSIFYING DRONE ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The drone threat continues to escalate, with new groups originating from multiple directions, including Belgorod (north of Kharkiv). Dnipro and Kharkiv remain under IMMEDIATE THREAT. This constitutes a PROLONGED AND COORDINATED ATTACK.
2. AIR STRIKE THREAT, SUMY OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The use of guided aerial bombs in Sumy Oblast represents a SIGNIFICANT ESCALATION and poses a MAJOR THREAT to Ukrainian forces and infrastructure.
3. CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN MULTIPLE LOCATIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, PARTIALLY CONFIRMED): Russian sources claim advances near Velyka Novosilka (towards Novyi Komar-Rozdolne) and in the Kupyansk direction, with the latter partially confirmed by a Ukrainian-aligned source. The Kupyansk advances, including the establishment of a bridgehead on the Oskol River, are PARTICULARLY CONCERNING.
4. UKRAINIAN INFANTRY SHORTAGES AND RUSSIAN DRONE SUPERIORITY (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Reports from the Kupyansk direction highlight critical Ukrainian weaknesses and Russian advantages, further exacerbating the threat.
5. CONTINUED INTERNATIONAL DISCUSSIONS AND POTENTIAL DISAGREEMENTS (MEDIUM PRIORITY): Reports on Zelenskyy's meetings, Trump's proposals, and disagreements within the Western alliance highlight the ongoing complexities of international relations and the potential for conflicting interests.
6. RUSSIAN MoD CLAIM OF MASSIVE DRONE SHOOTDOWNS (LOW PRIORITY, ALMOST CERTAINLY FALSE): The claim of destroying 725 drones in a week is highly improbable and should be disregarded as propaganda.
7. HUMANITARIAN AND LOGISTICAL ISSUES: Reports of the dead at Dachnoye, and the request for purchasing vehicles, suggest humanitarian and logistical issues.

Updated Recommendations

1. MAINTAIN AIR DEFENSE READINESS, PRIORITIZE DNIPRO, KHARKIV, AND SUMY OBLASTS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Maximum alert status for air defense systems in Dnipropetrovsk (Dnipro), Kharkiv, and Sumy Oblasts, given the confirmed drone and air strike threats.
   • Deploy all available resources to DETECT, TRACK, AND INTERCEPT incoming drones and aircraft.
   • Prioritize the protection of critical infrastructure in Sumy Oblast from guided aerial bombs.

2. VERIFY CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy all available intelligence assets (satellite imagery, drone reconnaissance, human intelligence) to confirm or refute the claimed Russian advances near Velyka Novosilka (towards Novyi Komar-Rozdolne) and in the Kupyansk direction (Oskol River bridgehead).
   • Assess the impact on Ukrainian defensive positions and supply lines if the claims are confirmed.

3. ADDRESS UKRAINIAN INFANTRY SHORTAGES (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Evaluate the reported infantry shortages in the Kupyansk direction and take immediate steps to reinforce these units.
   • Consider redeploying forces from less critical areas if necessary.
   • Accelerate training and mobilization efforts to address long-term personnel needs.

4. COUNTER RUSSIAN DRONE SUPERIORITY (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Accelerate deployment of counter-drone systems across all frontline areas, with particular emphasis on the Kupyansk direction.
   • Develop and implement tactics to mitigate the effectiveness of Russian FPV drones.
   • Continue to seek and deploy advanced counter-drone technologies.

5. MAINTAIN DIPLOMATIC ENGAGEMENT (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Continue to engage with international partners to secure military and financial aid.
   • Address concerns and disagreements within the Western alliance to ensure a unified approach.
   • Address concerns over Russian use of chemical weapons.

6. DISREGARD RUSSIAN MoD PROPAGANDA (LOW PRIORITY):

   • The claim of destroying 725 drones is almost certainly false and should not influence strategic decisions.

7. ADDRESS HUMANITARIAN AND LOGISTICAL ISSUES (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Evaluate the reported battlefield casualties in the Dachnoye direction and take immediate steps to improve the logistics.
   • Consider redeploying forces from less critical areas if necessary.
   • Accelerate sanitation efforts to address long-term public health needs.

8. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT: Previous recommendations not addressed above remain in effect.

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND FLUID. The INTENSIFYING DRONE ATTACK across multiple regions and the NEW THREAT OF GUIDED AERIAL BOMBS in Sumy Oblast are the MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERNS. The POTENTIAL RUSSIAN ADVANCES near Velyka Novosilka and in the Kupyansk direction, particularly the reported bridgehead on the Oskol River, are MAJOR THREATS that require urgent verification and response. The reported Ukrainian infantry shortages and Russian drone superiority further compound these challenges. RAPID, DECISIVE, AND COORDINATED ACTION is crucial to address these multiple, interconnected threats.