Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 14, 2025, 19:08 UTC

Changes and New Information (18:33 UTC - 19:08 UTC)

1. CONTINUED DRONE THREATS (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (18:36 UTC, 18:42 UTC, 18:44 UTC, 18:45 UTC, 19:05 UTC) reports:
     • New groups of enemy attack drones entering Zaporizhzhia Oblast airspace from temporarily occupied territories (TOT), heading north/northwest.
     • Enemy drones entering Donetsk Oblast from TOT, heading north/northwest.
     • Threat of enemy attack drones in Kharkiv Oblast from the south.
     • Enemy drones are headed in the direction of Pavlohrad (Dnipropetrovsk).
     • Enemy drones are headed in the direction of Dnipro.
   • Assessment: The drone threat remains WIDESPREAD and MULTI-DIRECTIONAL. New groups of drones entering from occupied territories indicate a CONTINUED AND POTENTIALLY INTENSIFYING ATTACK. The threats to Pavlohrad and Dnipro are NEW AND URGENT.

2. RUSSIAN ADVANCES NEAR KRASNOARMEISK (CLAIMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Сливочный каприз (18:36 UTC) reports positional battles near Krasnoarmeisk, claiming Russian forces expanded their control zone to the east of Krasnoarmeisk, advancing up to 2.5 km towards Malynivka.
   • Assessment: These claims REQUIRE VERIFICATION. If confirmed, they represent a SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN ADVANCE in this area.

3. MOBILE AIR DEFENSE GROUPS ACTIVE (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Два майора (18:48 UTC) reports mobile air defense groups are active.
   • Assessment: This suggests a RESPONSE to the ongoing drone threats, though the specific location and effectiveness are unclear.

4. UKRAINIAN LOSSES ANNOUNCED BY GENERAL SYRSKYY (UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

• РБК-Україна (18:51) reports that General Syrskyy has announced that there are 48,000 casualties, with 20,000 KIA in the Kursk Oblast.
• Assessment: Requires verification.

5. UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKE (UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

• Оперативний ЗСУ (19:05), posts footage of the 126th brigade using drones to kill 3 Russian soldiers on the left bank of the Dnipro.
• Assessment: Requires independent verification.

6. OTHER DEVELOPMENTS:
   • ТАСС (18:33 UTC) reports that there were no birds rescued from fuel oil at the volunteer headquarters in Anapa, according to the Anapa administration.
   • ТАСС (18:36 UTC) reports that the storage period for information on the transmission of internet messages will be increased to three years, according to a bill aimed at combating telephone fraud.
   • Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (18:36 UTC) reports a Ukrainian drone attack on the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant. Zelenskyy / Official claims the drone was Russian.
   • ASTRA (18:47 UTC) reports Yulia Navalnaya stated at the Munich Conference, "Putin will disappear, and Russia will not disappear."

• Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (18:58) reports a summary for the day.
• Воин DV (19:01) reports that you can't trust anyone in Ukraine.
• РБК-Україна (19:01) says the Head of the Pentagon is being realistic.

Updated Situation Summary

1. INTENSIFYING DRONE ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • The drone threat is WIDESPREAD, MULTI-DIRECTIONAL, and INTENSIFYING, with new groups entering from occupied territories.
   • Pavlohrad and Dnipro are under IMMEDIATE THREAT.
   • Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts remain under threat.

2. CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES NEAR KRASNOARMEISK (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Russian sources claim a significant advance (up to 2.5 km) towards Malynivka.
   • URGENT VERIFICATION is required.

3. CONTINUED FIGHTING AND CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN VELYKA NOVOSILKA AREA (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Colonelcassad's detailed report, if confirmed, indicates a MAJOR SHIFT in the front line, with potential encirclement of Ukrainian forces.
   • IMMEDIATE AND URGENT VERIFICATION of these claims is paramount.

4. CONFUSION AND DIVISION WITHIN THE WESTERN ALLIANCE (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Conflicting messages regarding US involvement and policy, coupled with Zelenskyy's rejection of a reported US resource deal and his meetings with European leaders, highlight a lack of coordination and differing priorities.
   • CLARIFYING US POLICY AND FOSTERING A UNIFIED WESTERN APPROACH is crucial.

5. CONFIRMED USE OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS BY RUSSIA (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • OPCW confirmation of Russian use of chemical weapons adds a new dimension to the conflict and requires international condemnation and potential response.

6. OTHER DEVELOPMENTS (VARIOUS PRIORITIES):

   • Continued fighting near the borders (Kursk Oblast).
   • Ukrainian internal developments (Wagner recruitment in Poland).
   • Potential diplomatic developments (Saudi offer to host Trump-Putin meeting).
   • Conflicting reports of attack on Chernobyl.

Updated Recommendations

1. MAINTAIN AIR DEFENSE READINESS, PRIORITIZE DNIPRO AND PAVLOGRAD (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Maximum alert status for air defense systems, particularly in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Dnipro and Pavlohrad), given the confirmed drone threats.
   • Deploy all available resources to DETECT, TRACK, AND INTERCEPT incoming drones.
   • Continue efforts to improve drone detection and interception capabilities.

2. VERIFY CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy all available intelligence assets (satellite imagery, drone reconnaissance, human intelligence) to confirm or refute the claimed Russian advances near Krasnoarmeisk (towards Malynivka) and in the Velyka Novosilka area.
   • Assess the impact on Ukrainian defensive positions and supply lines if the claims are confirmed.

3. ADDRESS WESTERN ALLIANCE DISUNITY (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Intensify diplomatic efforts to clarify US policy and address concerns raised by European allies.
   • Seek concrete commitments from the US regarding security guarantees and military aid.
   • Develop a coordinated Western strategy that addresses Ukraine's security concerns and avoids unilateral concessions.

4. INVESTIGATE AND RESPOND TO RUSSIAN CHEMICAL WEAPONS USE (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Gather additional evidence and document the use of chemical weapons by Russia.
   • Coordinate with international partners to condemn Russia's actions and consider potential responses, including sanctions.

5. VERIFY UKRAINIAN CASUALTIES IN KURSK OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY):

• Gather any information that will help assess the situation.
• Assess how this will effect personnel.

6. VERIFY CLAIMED STRIKE IN KURSK OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Assess the claim of Ukrainian forces carrying out the strike in Kursk Oblast.
   • Determine the casualties, and the impact on the forces.

7. VERIFY STRIKE NEAR FANASEYEVKA (HIGH PRIORITY):

• Deploy assets to determine the facts of the strike.

8. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT: Previous recommendations not addressed above remain in effect.

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND FLUID. The INTENSIFYING DRONE ATTACK, particularly targeting DNIPRO AND PAVLOGRAD, is the MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN. The POTENTIAL RUSSIAN ADVANCES near Krasnoarmeisk and Velyka Novosilka, the CONTINUED DRONE WARFARE, and the LACK OF UNITY WITHIN THE WESTERN ALLIANCE are the most pressing concerns. RAPID, DECISIVE, AND COORDINATED ACTION is crucial to address these multiple, interconnected threats. The CONFIRMED USE OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS BY RUSSIA adds a new level of urgency and requires a strong international response.