Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 14, 2025, 18:32 UTC

Changes and New Information (18:01 UTC - 18:32 UTC)

1. DRONE ACTIVITY (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN & RUSSIAN SOURCES):

   • Воин DV (18:01 UTC) posts a video of drone activity, claiming to show Russian drones at work. Colonelcassad (18:03 UTC) posts a video about a Russian drone and motorcycle resupply effort. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (18:29 UTC) reports a threat of enemy attack drones in Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (18:31 UTC) reports an enemy drone in southeastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, heading north.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS CONTINUED, WIDESPREAD DRONE ACTIVITY on both sides. The Ukrainian Air Force warnings indicate an ACTIVE AIR THREAT in southeastern Ukraine. The Russian videos highlight the use of drones for both attack and logistical purposes. HIGH PRIORITY to monitor drone activity and maintain air defense readiness.

2. CLAIMED UKRAINIAN STRIKE IN KURSK OBLAST (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (18:30 UTC) posts a video claiming a Ukrainian Air Force precision strike on a Russian military facility near Yelizavetovka, Kursk Oblast. The target is claimed to be a platoon strongpoint of the 28th Rifle Battalion, 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, used for launching drones against Sumy Oblast.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS a Ukrainian strike inside Russian territory, targeting a specific military facility. The claim of targeting a drone launch site is SIGNIFICANT, indicating a Ukrainian effort to disrupt Russian drone operations. HIGH PRIORITY to verify the extent of damage and the impact on Russian drone capabilities.

3. CLAIMED RUSSIAN STRIKE NEAR FANASEYEVKA, KURSK OBLAST (CLAIMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

• Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (18:28 UTC) posts a video claiming a Russian special forces "Anvar" strike near Fanaseyevka, Kursk Oblast, destroying a British MRAP Mastiff and blocking a bridge.
• Assessment: This REQUIRES VERIFICATION. If confirmed, it indicates CONTINUED FIGHTING near the border and destruction of a Western-supplied vehicle.

4. RUSSIAN ADVANCES NEAR VELYKA NOVOSILKA (CLAIMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Colonelcassad (18:15 UTC) provides a detailed report claiming significant Russian advances in the Velyka Novosilka area, including:
     • Penetration of Ukrainian defenses between Novoselka and Vremivka.
     • Advance south of Velyka Novosilka towards Novoocheretuvate.
     • Successful assaults south of Dachne (claimed to be fully under Russian control).
     • Ukrainian forces pushed out of most of Andreevka, with only the western outskirts remaining under Ukrainian control.
     • Increased pressure on Ulakly and Konstantynopil.
     • Concentration of forces near Preobrazhenka, creating a tactical encirclement threat.
   • Assessment: These claims, if confirmed, represent a MAJOR RUSSIAN ADVANCE and a significant shift in the front line in this area. The claimed encirclement threat to Preobrazhenka is particularly concerning. EXTREME PRIORITY to verify these claims using independent sources.

5. UKRAINIAN STRIKE ON RUSSIAN BTR (CLAIMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

• STERNENKO (18:29 UTC) posts a video, claiming that the Tortuga unit of the 23rd OBSP destroyed a Russian BTR with infantry that was heading to an assault.
• Assessment: These claims require independent verification.

6. AIR RAID ALERT IN ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (18:26 UTC) announces an air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
   • Assessment: Confirms increased risk of airstrikes or drone attacks in the region.

7. US-UKRAINE-EUROPE RELATIONS (MIXED MESSAGES, VARIOUS SOURCES):

   • Numerous sources report on statements and counter-statements regarding US involvement in the war:
     • Оперативний ЗСУ (18:22 UTC) reports shock and humiliation from Vice President Vance's speech at the Munich Conference, claiming he didn't address the war.
     • Alex Parker Returns, Старше Эдды, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна (various times) report on Vance's denial of WSJ claims about potential US troop deployment.
     • Zelenskiy / Official, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) (various times) post identical messages about a "good meeting" with Vance, Rubio, and Kellogg, emphasizing continued work on a document and looking forward to Kellogg's visit to Ukraine.
     • РБК-Україна (18:19) Zelensky states that they expect the 16th sanctions package to hit Russian oil, ships, captains and crew members.

• ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (18:09 UTC), citing the Washington Post, reports that the US offered Zelenskyy a deal giving the US rights to 50% of Ukraine's future mineral resources, which Zelenskyy rejected due to lack of security guarantees. Alex Parker Returns (18:31) reiterates this claim.
• Zelenskiy / Official (18:24 UTC) posts video of a meeting with the Danish Prime Minister, thanking Denmark for its investment model in Ukrainian defense production and discussing coordination, defense aid, countering the Russian shadow fleet, and maintaining European unity. Оперативний ЗСУ (18:28) reiterates Zelensky's statement.
• Alex Parker Returns (18:24) posts an image of Navalnaya in Munich stating that it is impossible to negotiate with Putin.
• Воин DV: (18:31) reports that China is ready to work with Russia and the US to maintain a control mechanism. It reports that Zelensky stated Europe is worried that it has no place at the table.
  • Assessment: This indicates CONTINUED CONFUSION AND DIVISION within the Western alliance regarding the approach to the war. Vance's denial of troop deployment claims suggests a reluctance for direct US military involvement, while his meetings with Ukrainian officials and emphasis on a "lasting peace" indicate continued engagement. Zelenskyy's rejection of the reported US resource deal highlights Ukraine's insistence on security guarantees and its unwillingness to make concessions without them. The meeting with the Danish PM shows ongoing efforts to secure alternative sources of support. The fractured messages highlight a potential lack of coordination and differing priorities between the US, Ukraine, and European allies. EXTREME PRIORITY to clarify US policy and foster a unified Western approach.

8. OTHER DEVELOPMENTS:
   • ASTRA (18:03 UTC) reports that two Russians were sentenced in Poland for distributing Wagner Group recruitment materials.
   • РБК-Україна (18:05 UTC) reports that OPCW laboratories confirmed the use of Russian chemical weapons (RG-Vo tear gas grenades).
   • АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (18:05) reports on the success of a Polish weapons company.
   • ТАСС (18:06) reports that the fire in Anapa has been localized.
   • ASTRA (18:22) reports that Latvia has banned tourism to Russia and Belarus.
   • РБК-Україна (18:17) reports Saudi Arabia's offer to host a meeting between Trump and Putin.
   • ТАСС (18:18) reports the operator of First Channel says he is fine and wants to return to Kursk Oblast.
   • Рыбарь (18:18) reports that Reforum Space is closing.
   • ТАСС (18:20) reports that SBP is facing glitches.
   • Олександр Вілкул: (18:20) mentions attacks on Nikopol and surroundings and reports the reopening of a kindergarten in Kryvyi Rih.
   • Kotsnews: (18:25) reports on a new exclusive video showing the "Akhmat" special forces.

Updated Situation Summary

1. INTENSE FIGHTING AND CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN VELYKA NOVOSILKA AREA (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Colonelcassad's detailed report, if confirmed, indicates a MAJOR SHIFT in the front line, with potential encirclement of Ukrainian forces.
   • IMMEDIATE AND URGENT VERIFICATION of these claims is paramount.

2. CONTINUED DRONE WARFARE AND AIR THREATS (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Widespread drone activity confirmed on both sides, with Ukrainian air defense alerts in Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.
   • Confirmed Ukrainian strike on a claimed Russian drone launch site in Kursk Oblast indicates an effort to disrupt Russian drone operations.

3. CONFUSION AND DIVISION WITHIN THE WESTERN ALLIANCE (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Conflicting messages regarding US involvement and policy, coupled with Zelenskyy's rejection of a reported US resource deal and his meetings with European leaders, highlight a lack of coordination and differing priorities.
   • CLARIFYING US POLICY AND FOSTERING A UNIFIED WESTERN APPROACH is crucial.

4. CONFIRMED USE OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS BY RUSSIA (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • OPCW confirmation of Russian use of chemical weapons adds a new dimension to the conflict and requires international condemnation and potential response.

5. OTHER DEVELOPMENTS (VARIOUS PRIORITIES):

   • Continued fighting near the borders (Kursk Oblast).
   • Ukrainian internal developments (Wagner recruitment in Poland).
   • Potential diplomatic developments (Saudi offer to host Trump-Putin meeting).

Updated Recommendations

1. VERIFY CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy all available intelligence assets (satellite imagery, drone reconnaissance, human intelligence) to confirm or refute the claimed Russian advances in the Velyka Novosilka area, particularly the claims made by Colonelcassad.
   • Assess the impact on Ukrainian defensive positions and supply lines if the claims are confirmed.

2. MAINTAIN AIR DEFENSE READINESS (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Maintain maximum alert status for air defense systems, particularly in Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, given the confirmed drone threats.
   • Continue efforts to improve drone detection and interception capabilities.

3. ADDRESS WESTERN ALLIANCE DISUNITY (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Intensify diplomatic efforts to clarify US policy and address concerns raised by European allies.
   • Seek concrete commitments from the US regarding security guarantees and military aid.
   • Develop a coordinated Western strategy that addresses Ukraine's security concerns and avoids unilateral concessions.

4. INVESTIGATE AND RESPOND TO RUSSIAN CHEMICAL WEAPONS USE (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Gather additional evidence and document the use of chemical weapons by Russia.
   • Coordinate with international partners to condemn Russia's actions and consider potential responses, including sanctions.

5. VERIFY CLAIMED STRIKE IN KURSK OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Assess the claim of Ukrainian forces carrying out the strike in Kursk Oblast.
   • Determine the casualties, and the impact on the forces.

6. VERIFY STRIKE NEAR FANASEYEVKA (HIGH PRIORITY):

• Deploy assets to determine the facts of the strike.

7. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT: Previous recommendations not addressed above remain in effect.

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND FLUID. The POTENTIAL RUSSIAN ADVANCES near Velyka Novosilka, the CONTINUED DRONE WARFARE, and the LACK OF UNITY WITHIN THE WESTERN ALLIANCE are the most pressing concerns. RAPID, DECISIVE, AND COORDINATED ACTION is crucial to address these multiple, interconnected threats. The CONFIRMED USE OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS BY RUSSIA adds a new level of urgency and requires a strong international response.