Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 14, 2025, 10:32 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (10:02 UTC - 10:32 UTC, February 14)

Chernobyl Drone Strike Disinformation (INTENSIFIED, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES)

• Andriy Kovalenko (10:19 UTC, RBC-Ukraine): Reports photo of engine from Russian drone that struck Chernobyl.
• Volodymyr Zelenskyy (10:26 UTC, RBC-Ukraine): States drone that struck Chernobyl flew at 85 meters altitude. Claims the strike hit the sarcophagus, calling it a "greeting" from Putin to the Munich Security Conference. Asserts it proves Putin "definitely doesn't want peace."
• Dmitry Peskov (10:03 UTC, ASTRA): Calls claims of a strike on Chernobyl a "provocation" and "manipulation." Asserts that "there can be no question of any strikes on nuclear infrastructure facilities."
• Sever.Realii (10:20 UTC): Reports drone strike on Chernobyl sarcophagus, significant damage, and a fire (now extinguished), citing Zelenskyy. Confirms IAEA statement: no radiation leak detected.
• Assessment: The situation at Chernobyl has become EXTREMELY VOLATILE AND DANGEROUS. Zelenskyy's direct accusation of Russia, coupled with the photographic evidence of a drone engine and claims of damage to the sarcophagus, significantly escalates the situation. Peskov's CATEGORICAL DENIAL and accusations of "provocation" are part of a CONTINUING AND INTENSIFYING RUSSIAN DISINFORMATION CAMPAIGN. The IAEA's confirmation of NO RADIATION LEAK is CRITICAL, but the damage to the sarcophagus itself is a MAJOR CONCERN. This incident has the potential to be a MAJOR TURNING POINT in the conflict, requiring IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE INTERNATIONAL RESPONSE.

Potential Negotiations and Diplomatic Developments (UNCERTAIN, MIXED SIGNALS)

• RBC-Ukraine Source (10:04 UTC): Reports that the Ukrainian side has NOT planned negotiations in Saudi Arabia next week.
• Maria Zakharova (10:20 UTC, TASS): States that Russian officials are NOT invited to the Munich Security Conference and that there will be no representatives from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
• Volodymyr Zelenskyy (10:31 UTC, Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights): States, "I don't see that the USA has a ready plan to end the war."
• Assessment: The situation regarding potential negotiations remains EXTREMELY CONFUSED AND CONTRADICTORY. The Ukrainian source's denial of planned talks in Saudi Arabia DIRECTLY CONTRADICTS earlier claims attributed to Trump (reported by Russian sources). Zakharova's confirmation of NO RUSSIAN OFFICIAL PRESENCE at the Munich Security Conference further diminishes the likelihood of any substantive negotiations taking place there. Zelenskyy's statement about the lack of a US plan adds another layer of UNCERTAINTY. This strongly suggests that NO SIGNIFICANT NEGOTIATIONS are imminent, and the conflicting narratives indicate a DEEP DIVIDE and a potential breakdown in communication between various actors.

Russian Ground Advances (CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES)

• Russian Ministry of Defense (10:23 UTC, TASS): Officially announces the liberation of Dachne in the Donetsk People's Republic.
• Russian Ministry of Defense (10:31 UTC, TASS): Officially announces the liberation of Zelene Pole in the Donetsk People's Republic.
• Colonelcassad (10:13 UTC): Shows video and images from Dachne, claiming the settlement is liberated and showing multiple Russian flags.
• Voenkor Kotenok (10:27 UTC): Reports official confirmation from the Russian Ministry of Defense of the liberation of Dachne and Zelene Pole.
• Assessment: The OFFICIAL CONFIRMATION from the Russian Ministry of Defense, coupled with supporting video and images, SOLIDLY ESTABLISHES that Russian forces have taken control of BOTH DACHNE AND ZELENE POLE in the Donetsk region. This represents a SIGNIFICANT TACTICAL ADVANCE for Russian forces and a SETBACK for Ukraine. The speed and coordination of these advances suggest a PLANNED OFFENSIVE OPERATION.

Air Activity and Alerts (ONGOING, UKRAINIAN SOURCE)

• Ukrainian Air Force (10:11 UTC): Lifts the threat of ballistic weapon use from the south. Maintains alert for enemy tactical aviation activity in the east and southeast, with the threat of aviation weapons use in Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia regions. Drone threat remains in Sumy region.
• Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration (10:22 UTC): Announces the end of the air alert in Zaporizhzhia region.
• Assessment: While the immediate threat of ballistic missiles from the south has been lifted, the OVERALL AIR THREAT REMAINS HIGH. The continued activity of Russian tactical aviation and the ongoing drone threat in Sumy region indicate that MULTIPLE THREATS PERSIST. This requires CONTINUED VIGILANCE AND HIGH READINESS of air defense systems.

Other Notable Events

• Slyvochnyi Kapriz (10:22 UTC): Reports on an image supposedly showing a Ukrainian armored vehicle destroyed by a Russian drone, with coordinates (47.971636, 37.118124) near Kurakhovo.
• TASS (10:30 UTC): Reports that the Bank of Russia has kept the key interest rate at 21%.
• ASTRA (10:21 UTC): Reports new oil spills in annexed Sevastopol.
• Dnevnik Desantnika (10:21 UTC): Claims the enemy is redirecting missile production from Sumy region to Mykolaiv. Claims workers at the Zorya plant in Mykolaiv were issued gas masks.
• Operativny ZSU (10:06 UTC): Shows the content from the joint operation with Moldovan law enforcement.

Updated Situation Summary

1. CHERNOBYL DRONE STRIKE (EXTREME PRIORITY, INTERNATIONAL CRISIS): A MAJOR ESCALATION with POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC consequences. Zelenskyy's direct accusation of Russia, the photographic evidence, and the confirmed damage to the sarcophagus necessitate IMMEDIATE AND FORCEFUL INTERNATIONAL RESPONSE. Russia's DENIAL AND DISINFORMATION CAMPAIGN must be AGGRESSIVELY COUNTERED.
2. CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN DONETSK (HIGH PRIORITY): The OFFICIAL CONFIRMATION of the capture of Dachne and Zelene Pole represents a SIGNIFICANT TACTICAL VICTORY for Russia. This requires URGENT RESPONSE to stabilize the front and prevent further Russian gains.
3. NEGOTIATIONS APPEAR UNLIKELY (HIGH PRIORITY): Contradictory statements and the confirmed absence of Russian officials at Munich make SUBSTANTIVE TALKS HIGHLY IMPROBABLE in the near term.
4. PERSISTENT AIR THREAT (HIGH PRIORITY): While the immediate ballistic missile threat has subsided, Russian tactical aviation and drone activity continue to pose a SIGNIFICANT THREAT to multiple regions.
5. ECONOMIC AND INFORMATION WARFARE CONTINUES (HIGH PRIORITY): Reports on the Russian ruble, sanctions, and internal Ukrainian politics highlight the ongoing economic and information dimensions of the conflict.

Updated Recommendations

1. LAUNCH INTERNATIONAL INVESTIGATION AND RESPONSE TO CHERNOBYL INCIDENT (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Immediately convene an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council to address the situation at Chernobyl.
   • Demand a full, transparent, and independent investigation into the incident, led by the IAEA, with full access to the site and all relevant data.
   • Coordinate with international partners (US, EU, UK) to issue a STRONG AND UNIFIED CONDEMNATION of Russia's actions (assuming the strike is confirmed as deliberate).
   • Prepare for potential sanctions and other punitive measures against Russia.
   • Assess the structural integrity of the sarcophagus and implement immediate measures to prevent any potential radiation leaks.
   • Prepare for potential escalation of the conflict.

2. COUNTER RUSSIAN DISINFORMATION ON CHERNOBYL (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Continue to publicly and forcefully refute Russian claims of a Ukrainian "false flag" operation.
   • Provide verifiable evidence (drone engine, flight path data, etc.) to support the claim of a Russian drone attack.
   • Highlight Peskov's denial as part of a coordinated disinformation campaign.
   • Coordinate with international media outlets to disseminate accurate information and counter Russian propaganda.

3. REINFORCE DEFENSES IN DONETSK REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy reinforcements to the area around Kurakhovo and other vulnerable points along the front line.
   • Strengthen defensive positions and prepare for potential further Russian advances.
   • Conduct reconnaissance missions to assess Russian troop deployments and intentions.
   • Prepare for potential counter-offensive operations to regain lost territory.

4. MAINTAIN HIGH AIR DEFENSE READINESS (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Prioritize air defense resources in areas under threat: Kharkiv, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Sumy regions.
   • Maintain constant monitoring of airspace for incoming threats.
   • Ensure rapid response capabilities are in place to intercept missiles and drones.

5. CLARIFY NEGOTIATING POSITION (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Reiterate Ukraine's stance: no bilateral talks with Russia without prior agreement with allies.
   • Continue close coordination with Western partners to develop a unified negotiating strategy.
   • Prepare for potential future negotiations, but do not assume they are imminent.
   • Monitor all statements and actions by relevant actors (US, Russia, EU) to assess their true intentions.

6. ADDRESS UKRAINIAN RECRUITMENT (HIGH PRIORITY): Address internal issues, as highlighted by БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС.

7. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

The situation has become EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND UNPREDICTABLE. The CHERNOBYL INCIDENT is a MAJOR ESCALATION that requires IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE INTERNATIONAL ACTION. The CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES in Donetsk necessitate URGENT REINFORCEMENTS AND DEFENSIVE MEASURES. The UNCERTAIN SITUATION REGARDING NEGOTIATIONS and the CONTINUED AIR THREAT further underscore the CRITICAL NEED FOR VIGILANCE, ADAPTATION, AND PROACTIVE MEASURES.