Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 14, 2025, 10:02 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (09:32 UTC - 10:02 UTC, February 14)

Chernobyl Drone Strike Disinformation Intensifies (CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES)

• Alex Parker Returns (09:36 UTC): Claims ONLY ONE drone struck the Chernobyl sarcophagus, and shows a picture of a supposedly captured Geran-2 engine. Asks "what about the other one?".
• Alex Parker Returns (09:39 UTC): Shows an image of a damaged engine, allegedly the Geran-2 engine "carefully brought" to the sarcophagus and photographed.
• Dmitry Peskov (09:58 UTC, TASS): DENIES Zelenskyy's claim of a Russian drone strike on Chernobyl, stating "the Russian Armed Forces do not do this."
• Assessment: Russia is AGGRESSIVELY pushing the narrative of a Ukrainian "false flag" operation at Chernobyl. The rapid dissemination of images and official denials indicates a COORDINATED DISINFORMATION CAMPAIGN. The claim of ONLY ONE drone impacting, along with questions about a "second drone", is designed to create confusion and sow doubt. Peskov's denial is EXPECTED and REINFORCES the disinformation effort. This is a HIGHLY DANGEROUS situation, requiring IMMEDIATE AND FORCEFUL COUNTERMEASURES.

Air Activity and Alerts (ONGOING, MULTIPLE SOURCES)

• Air Force of Ukraine (09:34 UTC): Warns of enemy tactical aviation activity in the southeast and the threat of aviation weapons use in frontline areas.
• Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration (09:35 UTC): Announces an air alert in Zaporizhzhia region.
• Air Force of Ukraine (09:36 UTC): Reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation in Zaporizhzhia region.
• Nikolaevsky Vanek (09:36 UTC): Reports S-300/S-400 launches towards Bereznehuvate.
• Air Force of Ukraine (09:36 UTC): A high-speed target is detected in the Mykolaiv region, heading north.
• Air Force of Ukraine (09:38 UTC): Warns of a threat of ballistic weapons use from the south in areas under air alert.
• Nikolaevsky Vanek (09:38 UTC): States the threat is over, but might be repeated.
• Air Force of Ukraine (09:50 UTC): Reports a high-speed target heading toward Kherson.
• Air Force of Ukraine (09:50 UTC): Reports a target heading towards Mykolaiv.
• Nikolaevsky Vanek (09:51 UTC): Reports the target is flying towards Voskresenske.
• Nikolaevsky Vanek (09:52 UTC): All-clear given.
• Air Force of Ukraine (09:56 UTC): Warns of a threat of enemy attack UAVs in Sumy region.
• Air Force of Ukraine (09:57 UTC): Specifically warns the city of Sumy about an enemy attack UAV from the northeast.
• Assessment: INTENSE AND WIDESPREAD AIR ACTIVITY continues, with threats from guided bombs, ballistic missiles, and drones. Multiple alerts and reports of targets in Mykolaiv, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and Sumy regions indicate MULTIPLE SIMULTANEOUS THREATS. The rapid sequence of alerts, target reports, and all-clears suggests a DYNAMIC AND FAST-MOVING SITUATION. This requires CONSTANT MONITORING AND RAPID RESPONSE capabilities.

Potential Negotiations and Diplomatic Developments (MIXED SIGNALS)

• Dnevnik Desantnika (09:33 UTC): Claims Trump made several statements:
  • US, Russia, and Ukraine will hold a meeting in Saudi Arabia next week to discuss a settlement.
  • US and Russian representatives will meet on February 14 at the Munich Security Conference.
  • Ukraine will participate in negotiations.
  • The parties have made significant progress towards resolving the crisis.
  • Trump wants to return Russia to the G8 (contradicting Peskov).
  • Statements by Defense Minister Pete Hegseth about the unreality of Ukraine joining NATO accurately reflected the US position.
• Voenkor Kotenok (09:45 UTC): Reports that Western media claim today's negotiations in Munich, announced by Washington, may not take place. Bild reports no Russian delegation will be present. Vance's meeting with Zelenskyy is also postponed. The US has requested time to finalize the draft agreement on mineral resources.
• Dmitry Peskov (09:55 UTC, TASS): States Russia is more interested in working in the G20, as the G7 has lost economic leadership.
• Assessment: The situation regarding potential negotiations is EXTREMELY CONFUSED AND CONTRADICTORY. Trump's alleged statements (reported by a Russian source) suggest imminent talks, while Western media and Ukrainian sources deny or downplay the possibility of immediate, direct negotiations. Peskov's statement REJECTS the idea of rejoining the G8, contradicting Trump's alleged position. The postponement of the Vance-Zelenskyy meeting and the ongoing review of the mineral resources agreement further complicate the picture. This suggests either a deliberate attempt to create confusion or a SIGNIFICANT DISCONNECT between different actors and their negotiating positions. It is HIGHLY UNLIKELY that any substantive negotiations will occur in Munich today, especially given the confirmed absence of an official Russian delegation.

Russian Ground Advances (CLAIMED, RUSSIAN SOURCES)

• Colonelcassad (09:53 UTC): Claims Russian forces advanced near Andriivka and Dachne. Claims the liberation of Andriivka will bring the start of the assault on Kostiantynopil closer.
• Assessment: This reinforces previous reports of Russian advances in the Donetsk region. The claim regarding Kostiantynopil suggests a STRATEGIC OBJECTIVE beyond the immediate tactical gains. This requires URGENT VERIFICATION.

Other Notable Events

• CyberBoroshno (09:33 UTC): Analyzes a satellite image taken a month after an attack, noting that while no damage is visible, previously damaged buildings have been rebuilt, suggesting rapid repair capabilities.
• TASS (09:34 UTC): Reports that Ukrainian forces are wearing Russian uniforms to carry out sabotage operations, according to Igor Kimakovsky, an advisor to the head of the DNR.
• Office of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine (09:35 UTC): Reports the sentencing of a former leader of the banned "Opposition Platform – For Life" party in Lviv to 13 years in prison for treason.
• Nikolaevsky Vanek (09:36 UTC): Reports launches of S-300/S-400 in the direction of Bereznehuvate.
• OTU "Kharkiv" (09:37 UTC): Reports the operational situation in the Kharkiv direction remains difficult, with Ukrainian forces holding back Russian troops. Reports no enemy assaults in the past day, but 4 airstrikes with 4 guided aerial bombs, 52 drone strikes, and 415 shelling incidents. Claims 66 Russian casualties (17 KIA, 49 WIA) and 90 pieces of equipment destroyed/damaged.
• Colonelcassad (09:37 UTC): Shows video of another American M113 APC destroyed, reportedly by the "Yastreby" unit using a night camera.
• Operativny ZSU (09:39 UTC): Quotes Shmyhal stating that the EU cannot stand without Ukraine and that Russia is already waging war against the EU.
• Rybar (09:54 UTC): Reports that the regional office of "Sputnik" in Azerbaijan is being liquidated, leaving only one employee. Claims this is another unfriendly step by Azerbaijan, along with the closure of the "Russian House," a ban on Russian deputies, and attacks on pro-Russian activists.
• Butusov Plus (09:55 UTC): Claims video footage shows the destruction of North Korean servicemen in the sanitary zone of the Kursk region by the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade. Claims a whole company (about 140 soldiers) of the DPRK army was eliminated.
• Operational ZSU (09:59 UTC): UK imposed sanctions against Pavel Fradkov, Deputy Defense Minister of Russia.
• Office of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine (10:00 UTC): Reports a joint operation with Moldovan law enforcement, "Avengers," resulting in the arrest of three mercenaries who fought for Russia in Ukraine.
• WarGonzo (10:01 UTC): Shows a video of a drone destroying a Ukrainian APC.

Updated Situation Summary

• CHERNOBYL DISINFORMATION CAMPAIGN (EXTREME PRIORITY): Russia is INTENSIFYING its disinformation campaign, claiming a Ukrainian "false flag" attack on Chernobyl. Peskov's denial and the dissemination of images are part of a COORDINATED EFFORT to sow confusion and discredit Ukraine.
• INTENSE AIR ACTIVITY (EXTREME PRIORITY): MULTIPLE AND SIMULTANEOUS THREATS from guided bombs, ballistic missiles, and drones are reported across several regions, requiring CONSTANT VIGILANCE AND RAPID RESPONSE.
• NEGOTIATIONS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN (HIGH PRIORITY): Contradictory reports and statements from various actors create a CONFUSED AND UNCERTAIN picture regarding potential negotiations. Substantive talks in Munich today are UNLIKELY.
• RUSSIAN GROUND ADVANCES (CLAIMED, HIGH PRIORITY): Reports of Russian advances near Andriivka and Dachne require URGENT VERIFICATION.
• CONTINUED INFORMATION WARFARE (HIGH PRIORITY): Both sides are actively engaged in information operations, using social media and official statements to shape narratives and influence public opinion.

Updated Recommendations

1. AGGRESSIVELY COUNTER CHERNOBYL DISINFORMATION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Continue to publicly and forcefully refute the Russian claims.
   • Provide verifiable evidence (if available) of the actual cause of any damage at Chernobyl.
   • Coordinate with international partners (IAEA, EU, US) to issue strong condemnations of the disinformation and support Ukraine.
   • Highlight Peskov's denial as part of the coordinated disinformation campaign.
   • Demand a full and transparent investigation.
   • Prepare for potential escalation of the disinformation campaign.

2. MAINTAIN MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE READINESS (EXTREME PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Prioritize air defense resources in areas under threat: Mykolaiv, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and Sumy regions.
   • Maintain constant monitoring of airspace for incoming threats.
   • Ensure rapid response capabilities are in place to intercept missiles and drones.
   • Issue public warnings and safety instructions as needed.

3. CLARIFY NEGOTIATING POSITION (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Reiterate Ukraine's stance: no bilateral talks with Russia without prior agreement with allies.
   • Continue close coordination with Western partners to develop a unified negotiating strategy.
   • Prepare for potential future negotiations, but do not assume they are imminent.
   • Monitor all statements and actions by relevant actors (US, Russia, EU) to assess their true intentions.

4. VERIFY REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy reconnaissance assets (drones, satellite imagery, HUMINT) to confirm or deny claims of Russian advances near Andriivka and Dachne.
   • Assess the strategic implications of any confirmed advances, particularly regarding Kostiantynopil.
   • Prepare counter-offensive measures if necessary.

5. MONITOR AND ANALYZE INFORMATION WARFARE (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Track and analyze both Russian and Ukrainian information operations.
   • Identify and counter disinformation campaigns.
   • Develop and disseminate accurate information to domestic and international audiences.
   • Pay particular attention to claims and videos regarding attacks, troop movements, and casualties.

6. ADDRESS UKRAINIAN RECRUITMENT (HIGH PRIORITY): Address internal issues, as highlighted by БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС.

7. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

The situation remains EXTREMELY DYNAMIC AND DANGEROUS. The HIGHEST PRIORITIES are countering the Russian disinformation campaign about Chernobyl, maintaining readiness for intense and widespread air attacks, clarifying the uncertain situation regarding potential negotiations, and verifying reported Russian ground advances. The ongoing information warfare requires CONSTANT VIGILANCE AND ANALYSIS.