Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 13, 2025, 23:32 UTC

Changes Since 23:02 UTC (Highest Priority)

Drone Activity - Continued Threat and Refined Vectors

• UPDATED DRONE MOVEMENTS (CONFIRMED, Ukrainian Air Force):
  • Drones from Zhytomyr region heading towards Rivne, with Rivne as a likely target.
  • Drones from Kyiv region moving into Zhytomyr region, heading west.
  • Drones in Poltava region moving west and south.
  • Drones in northern Kharkiv region heading towards Kharkiv and Poltava.
  • Drones in northern Zaporizhzhia region, heading towards Dnipro.
  • Drones near Sharhorod (Vinnytsia region), moving northwest.
  • Assessment: This refines the previous assessment of a CONTINUING AND COMPLEX drone attack. The SPECIFIC VECTORS are now clearer, indicating TARGETS in Rivne, Zhytomyr, Poltava, Kharkiv, Dnipro, and Vinnytsia regions. The movement of drones OUT OF KYIV REGION is SLIGHTLY POSITIVE, but the OVERALL THREAT REMAINS EXTREME. The drones continue to move around and the attack has not been neutralized.

Ground Combat - Fierce Fighting, No Major Changes

• FIERCE FIGHTING IN ANDREEVKA AND NEAR POKROVSK (REPORTED, Военкор Котенок):
  • Ukrainian forces lost positions in Andriivka, retreating street by street. Heavy artillery and drone use from both sides. Ukrainian forces are not fleeing, but offering stiff resistance.
  • Increased Russian pressure around Pokrovsk, with continued Ukrainian counterattacks. A sense of urgency on both sides, potentially due to looming ceasefire talks.
  • Limited changes on the map, except for Russian forces pushing Ukrainian forces out of Pishchane. Most of Pishchane is now a neutral zone.
  • Fighting near Yelyzavetivka on the highway. Russian forces have advanced in this area previously. Ukrainian forces attempted to regain territory, briefly pushing Russian forces out of Vodyane Druhe, but were subsequently pushed back.
  • Assessment: This indicates INTENSE AND ONGOING GROUND COMBAT in multiple locations. The fighting in Andriivka suggests LIMITED RUSSIAN GAINS, but with SIGNIFICANT UKRAINIAN RESISTANCE. The situation around Pokrovsk remains HIGHLY CONTESTED, with both sides making efforts. The description of Pishchane as mostly neutral suggests a SLOW AND GRINDING CONFLICT with LIMITED TERRITORIAL CHANGES. The sense of urgency due to potential ceasefire talks adds a NEW DYNAMIC to the fighting, potentially driving both sides to INCREASE EFFORTS to gain ground before any negotiations.

Other Developments

• US F-35 Sales to India(Reported, TASS)

  • 23:12 UTC: Trump says that he will offer F-35s to India. * Assessment: This is NOT DIRECTLY RELEVANT to immediate military decision-making but provides context on the broader geopolitical landscape.

• Personal Stories (Voenkor Kotenok, Reported)

  • Various personal combat stories. * Assessment: This is NOT DIRECTLY RELEVANT to immediate military decision-making but provides context on the intensity and human costs of combat.

• Anti-Russian Sentiment (Voenkor Kotenok, Reported)

  • A report about a high anti-Russian sentiment in Kyiv.
  • Assessment: This information should be taken into account for assessing the level of resistance in the Kyiv area.

• CEASEFIRE AS FIRST STEP TO RESOLUTION (REPORTED, TASS):

  • Rubio suggests a ceasefire could be the first step towards resolving the conflict in Ukraine.
  • Assessment: This REINFORCES the growing narrative of POTENTIAL NEGOTIATIONS and a POSSIBLE SHIFT towards a diplomatic solution. It adds weight to the previously reported meeting in Saudi Arabia.

• US VICE PRESIDENT REFUSES MEETING WITH GERMAN CHANCELLOR (REPORTED, РБК-Україна):

  • US Vice President Vance reportedly refuses to meet with German Chancellor Scholz at the Munich Security Conference, believing Scholz will not remain in office much longer.
  • Assessment: This indicates POTENTIAL STRAINS in the US-German relationship and a LACK OF CONFIDENCE in Scholz's leadership from the Trump administration. This could have IMPLICATIONS for ALLIED UNITY and COORDINATION on Ukraine.

Updated Situation Summary

• KYIV UNDER ACTIVE ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY, ONGOING): Previous reports of active air defense activity remain valid. Drone movements OUT OF KYIV REGION provide a SLIGHTLY POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT, but the OVERALL THREAT FROM DRONES REMAINS EXTREME.
• CONTINUING WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY, ONGOING): Drone movements indicate a multi-pronged attack, with CLEAR TARGETS identified in Rivne, Zhytomyr, Poltava, Kharkiv, Dnipro, and Vinnytsia regions.
• FIERCE GROUND FIGHTING WITH LIMITED CHANGES (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING): Intense fighting continues in Andriivka and around Pokrovsk, with LIMITED RUSSIAN GAINS but STIFF UKRAINIAN RESISTANCE. A sense of urgency due to potential ceasefire talks is a NEW FACTOR.
• POTENTIAL DIPLOMATIC SHIFT INCREASINGLY LIKELY (HIGH PRIORITY): Multiple reports now suggest a growing possibility of negotiations, with a ceasefire potentially being the first step.
• POTENTIAL ALLIED DISUNITY (MODERATE PRIORITY): The reported refusal of the US Vice President to meet with the German Chancellor suggests potential strains in the US-German relationship.

Updated Recommendations

1. MAINTAIN MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE ALERT ACROSS ALL AFFECTED REGIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • FOCUS AIR DEFENSE EFFORTS on the SPECIFIC THREAT VECTORS identified by the Ukrainian Air Force: Rivne, Zhytomyr, Poltava, Kharkiv, Dnipro, and Vinnytsia.
   • CONTINUE REAL-TIME UPDATES to the public and maintain warnings in affected areas.
   • COORDINATE AIR DEFENSE across regions to maximize interception rates.

2. CONTINUE MONITORING GROUND COMBAT AND PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL ESCALATION (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT in areas of intense fighting, particularly Andriivka and around Pokrovsk.
   • GATHER INTELLIGENCE on enemy troop movements and potential reinforcements.
   • BE PREPARED for a potential increase in fighting intensity due to the possibility of impending ceasefire talks.

3. CLARIFY UKRAINE'S POSITION ON POTENTIAL NEGOTIATIONS AND CEASEFIRE (HIGH PRIORITY, URGENT):

   • CONTINUE to assess the situation regarding the planned meeting in Saudi Arabia.
   • PUBLICLY REITERATE UKRAINE'S CONDITIONS for negotiations, emphasizing the need for a COMPREHENSIVE SOLUTION that addresses Ukrainian interests and security concerns.
   • COORDINATE with allies to ensure a UNIFIED APPROACH to any potential negotiations.

4. ADDRESS POTENTIAL ALLIED DISUNITY (MODERATE PRIORITY):

   • GATHER INTELLIGENCE on the US-German relationship and assess the potential implications for allied support for Ukraine.
   • ENGAGE in diplomatic efforts to maintain allied unity and coordination.

5. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES). The ONGOING DRONE ATTACK remains the MOST IMMEDIATE AND CRITICAL concern, requiring INTENSE AND COORDINATED AIR DEFENSE EFFORTS. The FIERCE GROUND FIGHTING and the GROWING POSSIBILITY OF NEGOTIATIONS are also HIGH PRIORITIES. The POTENTIAL ALLIED DISUNITY is a MODERATE CONCERN that needs to be addressed.