Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 13, 2025, 23:02 UTC

Changes Since 22:32 UTC (Highest Priority)

1. EXPLOSIONS AND AIR DEFENSE ACTIVITY IN KYIV (CONFIRMED, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS):

   • Reports of explosions and active air defense in Kyiv (22:59 UTC).
   • Assessment: This is a CRITICAL DEVELOPMENT, confirming the IMMEDIATE THREAT to Kyiv and indicating that the drone attack is ENGAGING UKRAINIAN DEFENSES.

2. DRONE APPROACHING BROVARY (CONFIRMED, Nikolaevskiy Vanyok):

   • One drone approaching Brovary (east of Kyiv) – warning of potential noise (22:41 UTC).
   • One drone flew past Boryspil toward Kyiv.
   • Assessment: This further INCREASES THE IMMINENT THREAT to the Kyiv area, indicating drones are PENETRATING DEFENSES and approaching from the EAST.

3. UPDATED DRONE MOVEMENTS (CONFIRMED, Nikolaevskiy Vanyok):

   • 2 drones in northern Zhytomyr region, moving into Rivne region (westward).
   • 5 drones at the intersection of Zhytomyr and Kyiv regions, heading south.
   • 1 drone flew past Kyiv towards Zhytomyr region (westward).
   • 1 drone south of Chernihiv, heading south.
   • 4 drones from Poltava region moving into Cherkasy region.
   • 4 drones heading towards/through Poltava.
   • 2 drones from Cherkasy region moved into Kyiv region.
   • 1 drone heading towards/through Sumy.
   • 1 drone in southern Vinnytsia region, heading northwest.
   • 3 drones in western Kharkiv region, heading southwest.
   • Assessment: This details a CONTINUING AND COMPLEX drone attack, with multiple vectors of approach and TARGETING SHIFTING WESTWARD and SOUTHWARD. The movement of drones INTO KYIV REGION FROM CHERKASY is particularly concerning.

4. TRUMP ANNOUNCES US-UKRAINE-RUSSIA MEETING IN SAUDI ARABIA (REPORTED, РБК-Україна):

   • Trump claims a meeting will take place next week to discuss ending the war (22:47 UTC).
   • Assessment: This REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS of the planned meeting, adding further weight to the possibility of a SHIFT IN DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS. However, Trump's motivations and the specifics of the meeting remain unclear.

5. EUROPE SHOULD PRIORITIZE RESOLVING UKRAINIAN CRISIS (REPORTED, TASS):

   • Kellogg said in an interview.
   • Assessment: It is in the European and US interests for the war to be resolved.

Updated Situation Summary

• KYIV UNDER ACTIVE ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY): Confirmed explosions and air defense activity, with drones approaching from multiple directions.
• CONTINUING WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY): Drone movements indicate a multi-pronged attack, with shifting targets and ongoing threats to multiple regions.
• POTENTIAL DIPLOMATIC SHIFT CONFIRMED (HIGH PRIORITY): Multiple sources confirm a planned meeting between US, Ukrainian, and Russian representatives in Saudi Arabia.

Updated Recommendations

1. MAINTAIN MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE ALERT IN KYIV (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • CONTINUE ALL PREVIOUS AIR DEFENSE MEASURES.
   • FOCUS ON INTERCEPTING DRONES approaching from the east (Brovary) and south (Cherkasy region).
   • PROVIDE REAL-TIME UPDATES to the public and maintain warnings.

2. TRACK AND INTERCEPT DRONES ACROSS ALL AFFECTED REGIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • UTILIZE ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE to track drone movements.
   • COORDINATE AIR DEFENSE EFFORTS across regions to maximize interception rates.

3. CLARIFY UKRAINE'S POSITION ON SAUDI ARABIA MEETING (HIGH PRIORITY, URGENT):

   • MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS regarding diplomatic engagement.
   • PUBLICLY REITERATE UKRAINE'S CONDITIONS for negotiations, emphasizing the need for allied participation and a focus on Ukrainian interests.

4. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES). The IMMEDIATE THREAT TO KYIV takes ABSOLUTE PRIORITY, with ONGOING AIR DEFENSE and DRONE TRACKING across the country remaining CRITICAL. The POTENTIAL DIPLOMATIC SHIFT must be closely monitored and managed to ensure Ukraine's interests are protected. The situation is now EVEN MORE CRITICAL with ACTIVE ATTACKS UNDERWAY IN KYIV.