Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 13, 2025, 20:02 UTC

Changes Since 19:32 UTC (Highest Priority)

1. Drone Activity Update (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (19:33 UTC) reports a strike drone near Dnipro, moving from the east.
   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (19:58 UTC) provides a comprehensive update on drone movements:
     • Drones in eastern Mykolaiv Oblast and western Kherson Oblast, moving northwest.
     • Drones in eastern Kirovohrad Oblast, moving northwest.
     • Drones in the southeast, center, and northwest of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, moving northwest.
     • Drones in western Kharkiv Oblast, moving west.
     • Drones in eastern Sumy Oblast, moving southwest.
     • New groups of drones in northeastern Sumy Oblast, moving southwest (towards Chernihiv Oblast).
     • A reconnaissance drone in Chernihiv Oblast; possible air defense activity.
   • Nikolaevskiy Vanyok (19:42 UTC) reports two drones near Snihurivka (northwestern course), three drones moving from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast to Kirovohrad Oblast, two drones near Zaporizhzhia (northwestern course), and seven drones near Dnipro and Samar (northwestern course), and two drones moving from Kharkiv Oblast to Poltava Oblast.
   • Assessment: This confirms a WIDESPREAD AND MULTI-DIRECTIONAL DRONE ATTACK across Ukraine. The concentration of drones in the Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Kirovohrad, Kharkiv, and Sumy Oblasts indicates these are PRIMARY TARGET AREAS. The report of a reconnaissance drone in Chernihiv Oblast suggests POTENTIAL TARGET IDENTIFICATION for future strikes. The involvement of multiple drone groups from different directions indicates a COORDINATED EFFORT to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses.

2. Reported Fighting in Vovchansk (REPORTED, RUSSIAN-ALIGNED SOURCE, HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Сливочный каприз (19:33 UTC) reports active fighting in the Vovchansk area, claiming a Russian infantry attack in eastern Vovchansk and "clearing" of Ukrainian positions. Provides geographic coordinates (50.30141, 36.95616).
   • Assessment: These claims REQUIRE URGENT VERIFICATION. If confirmed, this represents a SIGNIFICANT ESCALATION in the Kharkiv Oblast and a POTENTIAL BREAKTHROUGH by Russian forces. The provided coordinates place the fighting INSIDE VOVCHANSK CITY, indicating a MAJOR SHIFT in the frontline.

3. Reported Fighting near Sudzha (REPORTED, RUSSIAN-ALIGNED SOURCE, HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Сливочный каприз (19:48 UTC) reports positional fighting near Sudzha (Kursk Oblast, Russia), claiming Russian shelling of Ukrainian positions in the village of Kosytsia. Claims Ukrainian forces expanded their control zone by approximately 1 km near Russkoye Porechnoye. Provides geographic coordinates (51.315555, 35.320800).
   • Assessment: These claims REQUIRE VERIFICATION. They indicate continued fighting along the border in the Kursk region, with potential LIMITED UKRAINIAN GAINS. The reported coordinates place the fighting INSIDE RUSSIA, highlighting the cross-border nature of the conflict in this area.

4. Guided Aerial Bomb Attacks, Zaporizhzhia Oblast (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (19:40 UTC) reports launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
   • Assessment: This confirms INCREASED RUSSIAN AIR ACTIVITY and PRECISION STRIKE CAPABILITY in this region. This poses a SIGNIFICANT THREAT to Ukrainian forces and infrastructure.

5. Russian Drone Control Point Destroyed (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, MEDIUM PRIORITY): * Colonelcassad (20:00 UTC) claims that the 16th Special Forces Brigade destroyed a Ukrainian UAV control point in the Serebryansky forest area using two fiber-optic-guided drones. * Assessment: This claim REQUIRES VERIFICATION. If confirmed, it demonstrates Russian use of ADVANCED DRONE TECHNOLOGY and highlights the INTENSE DRONE WARFARE ongoing in the conflict.

6. Request for Trucks Near Pokrovsk (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Butusov Plus (19:54 UTC) relays a request from the 1st Separate Assault Battalion "Da Vinci," Material Support Company, for two cargo trucks to support operations near Pokrovsk.
   • Assessment: This confirms LOGISTICAL CHALLENGES for Ukrainian forces in a KEY BATTLEGROUND AREA. The need for basic transport vehicles highlights the strain on resources and the importance of civilian support.

7. Trump's Statements:

   • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (19:38) Trump says: "Ukraine will have a seat at any peace talks with Russia," and adds, "I trust Putin and I believe he wants peace."
   • RBC-Ukraine (19:42) reports that Trump wants to bring Russia back into the G7 and guarantees Ukraine a seat at the negotiating table.
   • Оперативний ЗСУ (19:48) reiterates the information about Trump and G7.
   • STERNENKO (19:51) repeats Trump's claim about G7 and Ukraine having a spot in potential negotiations.
   • РБК-Україна (19:50) says Trump expects to meet with Xi and Putin after "everything calms down."
   • Assessment: Trump is indicating a potentially large change to international relations, which will affect the war.

8. US Diplomatic Aircraft near Moscow (REPORTED, MIXED SOURCES, HIGH PRIORITY):

   • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (19:50 UTC) reports a US Air Force C-37B VIP aircraft from Washington is preparing to land in Moscow, likely carrying a diplomatic delegation.
   • Alex Parker Returns (19:55 UTC) also reports another plane is on the way to Moscow.
   • Assessment: This REQUIRES URGENT CONFIRMATION AND MONITORING. If confirmed, this represents a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT and could indicate HIGH-LEVEL TALKS between the US and Russia, POTENTIALLY RELATED TO THE UKRAINE CONFLICT. The purpose of the flight is unknown, but the timing and location are HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT.

Updated Situation Summary

• WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACK UNDERWAY (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): A MAJOR, MULTI-DIRECTIONAL DRONE ATTACK is targeting multiple regions of Ukraine, particularly Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Kirovohrad, Kharkiv, and Sumy Oblasts.
• POTENTIAL ESCALATION IN KHARKIV OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Reports of fighting INSIDE VOVCHANSK CITY indicate a POTENTIAL MAJOR SHIFT in the frontline and a POSSIBLE RUSSIAN BREAKTHROUGH.
• CONTINUED FIGHTING ALONG KURSK BORDER (HIGH PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Reports suggest continued cross-border fighting, with potential LIMITED UKRAINIAN GAINS inside Russia.
• INCREASED RUSSIAN AIR ACTIVITY IN ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Guided aerial bomb attacks confirm PRECISION STRIKE CAPABILITY and pose a SIGNIFICANT THREAT.
• LOGISTICAL CHALLENGES FOR UKRAINIAN FORCES NEAR POKROVSK (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): A request for trucks highlights resource constraints in a key battleground area.
• POTENTIAL HIGH-LEVEL US-RUSSIA TALKS (HIGH PRIORITY, REQUIRES URGENT CONFIRMATION): The reported flight of a US VIP aircraft to Moscow is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT that needs IMMEDIATE INVESTIGATION.

Updated Recommendations

1. MAINTAIN EXTREME VIGILANCE FOR DRONE AND MISSILE STRIKES (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Maintain highest alert level across ALL AFFECTED REGIONS, particularly Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Kirovohrad, Kharkiv, and Sumy Oblasts.
   • Deploy all available air defense assets to intercept incoming drones and missiles.
   • Prepare for mass casualty events and infrastructure damage.
   • Prioritize the protection of critical infrastructure and civilian populations.

2. URGENTLY VERIFY REPORTS OF FIGHTING IN VOVCHANSK (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy all available intelligence assets (drones, satellite imagery, human intelligence) to confirm or refute the reports of fighting inside Vovchansk.
   • Assess the extent of Russian advances and the status of Ukrainian defenses in the area.
   • Prepare for a potential rapid response to reinforce Ukrainian positions if necessary.

3. VERIFY REPORTS OF FIGHTING NEAR SUDZHA (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Gather intelligence to confirm or refute the reports of fighting and potential Ukrainian gains in the Kursk region.
   • Assess the implications for cross-border security and potential escalation.

4. MONITOR ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST FOR FURTHER AIR ATTACKS (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Maintain heightened air defense readiness in the region.
   • Track Russian aircraft movements and anticipate potential targets.

5. ADDRESS LOGISTICAL NEEDS NEAR POKROVSK (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Explore options for providing the requested trucks to the 1st Separate Assault Battalion.
   • Assess broader logistical needs in the Pokrovsk area and address any shortages.

6. URGENTLY INVESTIGATE REPORTED US AIRCRAFT FLIGHT TO MOSCOW (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Confirm the flight's arrival and purpose.
   • Monitor for any official statements from the US or Russian governments.
   • Assess the potential implications for the Ukraine conflict and US-Russia relations.

7. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

The situation is EXTREMELY DYNAMIC AND DANGEROUS. The WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACK, the POTENTIAL ESCALATION IN VOVCHANSK, and the REPORTED US AIRCRAFT FLIGHT TO MOSCOW are the MOST IMMEDIATE AND CRITICAL CONCERNS. VERIFYING REPORTS OF FIGHTING, MONITORING AIR ACTIVITY, and ADDRESSING LOGISTICAL NEEDS remain HIGH PRIORITIES. All previous recommendations remain in effect.