Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 13, 2025, 19:32 UTC

Changes Since 19:02 UTC (High Priority)

1. Armenian Parliament Votes on EU Membership (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Дневник Десантника (19:05 UTC) reports that the Armenian Parliament voted to begin the process of Armenia joining the European Union.
   • Assessment: This confirms a MAJOR GEOPOLITICAL SHIFT if finalized, potentially weakening Russia's influence in the region and increasing tensions in the Caucasus. The vote was 63 in favor, 7 against, out of 107, indicating significant but not unanimous support.

2. Drone-Assisted POW Capture, Zaporizhzhia Oblast (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Николаевский Ванёк (19:05 UTC) reports, with video evidence, that the 25th Airborne Brigade used a drone with a loudspeaker to convince 9 Russian soldiers to surrender.
   • Assessment: This confirms a SUCCESSFUL AND INNOVATIVE TACTIC by Ukrainian forces. It demonstrates the increasing use of drones for psychological operations, and its effectiveness in achieving surrenders without direct combat. It also CONFIRMS A CONTINUED LOSS OF RUSSIAN PERSONNEL in this sector.

3. Zelenskyy Reports Frontline Success, Personnel Changes in Air Force (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Zelenskiy / Official (19:06 UTC) reports, via video, positive frontline results (location unspecified, but credits the 425th Separate Assault Regiment). He also announces discussions with Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi about strengthening the Air Force, including a possible personnel change involving Brigadier General Serhii Holubtsov.
   • Assessment: Confirms ongoing Ukrainian military successes, though details are withheld. The Air Force focus suggests PREPARATION FOR INCREASED AIR COMBAT OR AIR DEFENSE OPERATIONS. The potential personnel change could indicate a shift in strategy or leadership within the Air Force.

4. Russian Advances, Bogatyr Direction (REPORTED, RUSSIAN-ALIGNED SOURCE):

   • Военкор Котенок (19:07 UTC) reports Russian forces are clearing and consolidating in Andreevka, pushing Ukrainian forces out of strongholds on the heights northwest of the village. Claims Ukrainian forces retreated from the western outskirts of Dachnoe to Ułakły, and Russian advances towards Ułakły. Reports ongoing fighting near the southeastern outskirts of Konstantynopol and advances south of Rozlyv.
   • Assessment: These claims REQUIRE FURTHER VERIFICATION. If confirmed, they indicate continued Russian offensive pressure in this sector.

5. Missile Threat, Sumy and Poltava Oblasts (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (19:07 UTC) reports a missile threat for Sumy and Poltava Oblasts.
   • Assessment: This INCREASES THE IMMEDIATE THREAT LEVEL in these regions. The origin of the threat is not specified, but could be related to the earlier ballistic missile threat from Kursk Oblast.

6. Summary of the Day's Military Operations, (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Дневник Десантника (19:07 UTC)
   • Assessment: Claims need further verification.

7. Drone Attack, Krasnodar Krai (REPORTED, MIXED SOURCES):

   • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (19:17 UTC) reports that Russia has launched drones from six locations, predicting around 100 UAVs.
   • ASTRA (19:31 UTC) reports a drone attack in Krasnodar Krai, specifically targeting Slavyansk-on-Kuban. Reports of air defense activity and possible fires.
   • Assessment: There might be an increase in drone attacks coming.

8. Trump Wants Russia Back in G7 (REPORTED, MIXED SOURCES):

   • Alex Parker Returns (19:24 UTC) reports that Trump wants Russia back in the G7.
   • ТАСС (19:26 UTC) reports the same.
   • Assessment: This confirms POTENTIAL MAJOR SHIFT IN US FOREIGN POLICY if Trump regains power.

9. Russian Claims of Advances Near Makiivka (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (19:21 UTC)
   • Assessment: This needs further verification.

10. Scholz Calls for State of Emergency (CONFIRMED, MIXED SOURCES):

    • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (19:16 UTC) reports, with video, that German Chancellor Scholz has called on the Bundestag to declare a state of emergency due to the situation in Ukraine and recent US statements. This would allow for increased borrowing to support Ukraine.
    • Оперативний ЗСУ (19:22 UTC) reports the same.
    • Assessment: This confirms a MAJOR SHIFT IN GERMAN POLICY and a SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN POTENTIAL GERMAN SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE. The state of emergency allows Germany to bypass debt restrictions.

11. Putin-Trump Conversation (REPORTED, MIXED SOURCES):

    • Alex Parker Returns (19:16 UTC) posted an image indicating that the European Commission viewed the Putin-Trump conversation as the beginning of resolving the conflict in Ukraine.
    • РБК-Україна (19:29 UTC) provided excerpts from a reported phone call between Zelenskyy and Trump, where Zelenskyy claims Putin only wants a deal because he fears Trump. Trump reportedly supported the idea of European peacekeeping forces as security guarantees for Ukraine.
    • Assessment: This confirms DIRECT HIGH-LEVEL COMMUNICATION between key players, with POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS FOR THE CONFLICT. The reported details suggest a complex negotiation dynamic, with potential for both progress and risk.

12. Russian Allegations of Ukrainian Attacks in Donetsk Region (REPORTED, RUSSIAN-ALIGNED SOURCE):

    • ASTRA (18:53 UTC) claims the Ukrainian military is bombing the Russian-occupied cities in Donetsk, which resulted in injuries.
    • Assessment: Requires independent confirmation.

Updated Situation Summary

• IMMINENT MISSILE THREAT (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): A missile threat is CONFIRMED for Sumy and Poltava Oblasts. The origin is unclear, but could be related to the earlier ballistic missile threat from Kursk.

• ONGOING DRONE ACTIVITY (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Drone activity continues, with reports of a potential large-scale attack originating from multiple locations in Russia. Reports of a drone attack in Krasnodar Krai.

• POTENTIAL MAJOR GEOPOLITICAL SHIFTS (HIGH PRIORITY): The Armenian Parliament's vote on starting EU membership proceedings represents a significant potential shift. Trump's reported desire to bring Russia back into the G7 signals a possible major change in US foreign policy.

• UKRAINE-US RARE EARTH DEAL (HIGH PRIORITY): Still no confirmation.

• DRONE WARFARE INTENSIFIES (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Reports from multiple sources, on both sides, emphasize the CRITICAL AND INCREASING ROLE OF DRONES in reconnaissance, targeting, and direct attacks. The reported German drone delivery to Ukraine will SIGNIFICANTLY enhance this aspect of the conflict.

• KURSK REGION (HIGH PRIORITY): Conflicting claims about the military situation in the Kursk region, potential Ukrainian successes in targeting high-value military assets near Moscow, and ongoing fighting along the border in the Kursk region highlight the importance of this area.

Updated Recommendations

1. MAINTAIN EXTREME VIGILANCE FOR MISSILE STRIKES (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Maintain highest alert level in Sumy and Poltava Oblasts.
   • Deploy all available air defense assets to intercept potential incoming missiles.
   • Prepare for mass casualty events and infrastructure damage.

2. PREPARE FOR INCREASED DRONE ACTIVITY (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Increase surveillance and tracking efforts across all regions, given reports of a potential large-scale drone attack.
   • Deploy counter-drone systems and prepare for potential attacks on critical infrastructure.

3. MONITOR ARMENIAN SITUATION (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Closely monitor developments regarding Armenia's potential EU membership.
   • Assess the potential impact on regional stability and Russian influence.

4. CONTINUE TRACKING DRONE ACTIVITY (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING): Remains unchanged.

5. SUPPORT AIR DEFENSE OPERATIONS IN ZAPORIZHZHIA (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING): Remains unchanged.

6. INVESTIGATE KURSK OBLAST REPORTS (HIGH PRIORITY): Remains unchanged.

7. VERIFY RUSSIAN ADVANCE CLAIMS (MULTIPLE LOCATIONS, HIGH PRIORITY): Deploy intelligence assets to verify/refute Russian claims of advances.

8. ASSESS UKRAINIAN DRONE CAPABILITIES (EXTREME PRIORITY, ONGOING): Remains unchanged.

9. COUNTER-DRONE MEASURES (EXTREME PRIORITY, ONGOING): Remains unchanged.

10. MONITOR RUSSIAN RECRUITMENT EFFORTS (HIGH PRIORITY): Remains unchanged.

11. COUNTER RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING): Remains unchanged.

12. SUPPORT CIVILIAN POPULATIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING): Remains unchanged.

13. MAINTAIN INFORMATION WARFARE EFFORTS (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING): Remains unchanged.

14. INVESTIGATE REPORTED INCIDENTS (HIGH/MEDIUM PRIORITY, AS NEEDED): Remains unchanged.

15. ANALYZE IMPLICATIONS OF GERMAN STATE OF EMERGENCY (HIGH PRIORITY):

    • Assess the potential impact of Germany's state of emergency declaration on its military and financial support for Ukraine.
    • Coordinate with German counterparts to understand the implications for joint operations and assistance.

16. MONITOR DEVELOPMENTS FROM PUTIN-TRUMP CONVERSATION (HIGH PRIORITY):

    • Gather further intelligence on the content and outcomes of the Putin-Trump conversation.
    • Assess the potential impact on US policy and support for Ukraine.

17. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT. The situation is EXTREMELY DYNAMIC AND DANGEROUS.

The situation remains EXTREMELY DYNAMIC AND DANGEROUS. The IMMINENT MISSILE THREAT to Sumy and Poltava Oblasts, and the potential for INCREASED DRONE ATTACKS, are the MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERNS. VERIFYING RUSSIAN ADVANCE CLAIMS, and MONITORING THE ZAPORIZHZHIA REGION, and analyzing the IMPLICATIONS OF THE GERMAN STATE OF EMERGENCY AND THE PUTIN-TRUMP CONVERSATION remain HIGH PRIORITIES. All previous recommendations remain in effect.