Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 13, 2025, 19:02 UTC

Changes Since 18:33 UTC (High Priority)

1. Ballistic Missile Threat, Kursk Oblast (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (18:13 UTC) reports, "Threat of ballistic weapons from Kursk region, in areas where air alert is announced."
   • Assessment: This confirms a HIGH PROBABILITY OF IMMINENT RUSSIAN BALLISTIC MISSILE STRIKES originating from Kursk Oblast. TARGETS ARE UNKNOWN, but all regions under air raid alert are at risk.

2. Drone Activity, Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (18:51 UTC) reports: "UAV in the south-west of Kharkiv region, heading west; UAV in the north of Zaporizhzhia region, heading north-west."
   • Assessment: CONFIRMS ONGOING DRONE ACTIVITY in multiple regions, indicating potential reconnaissance or attack missions. Movement patterns suggest a SPREAD-OUT THREAT.

3. Air Alert Lifted, Chernihiv and Cherkasy Oblasts (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (18:50 UTC) reports, "All-clear of the threat for Chernihiv and Cherkasy regions."
   • Assessment: This REDUCES THE IMMEDIATE THREAT LEVEL in these specific regions, but the broader ballistic missile threat from Kursk REMAINS.

4. Air Defense Activity, Zaporizhzhia Oblast (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (18:53 UTC) reports, "It may be loud because air defense is working. Stay safe until the alarm is over."
   • Assessment: This confirms ACTIVE AIR DEFENSE ENGAGEMENTS in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, likely in response to the reported drone activity. The type of threat being engaged (drones, missiles) is UNCLEAR.

5. Claimed Russian Advance, Rivnopil, Zaporizhzhia Oblast (REPORTED, RUSSIAN-ALIGNED SOURCE):

• Сливочный каприз (18:17 UTC) reports, "Positional combat operations near Velyka Novosilka. The Russian Armed Forces advanced on the Rozlyv-Rozdilne line about 900 meters to the west. The forward position of the Russian Armed Forces was shelled by the Armed Forces of Ukraine."
• Assessment: This needs further verification.

6. Zelenskyy-Trump Meeting (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Оперативний ЗСУ (18:50 UTC) reports that Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President J.D. Vance will meet with Zelenskyy in Munich to discuss Trump's desire to start negotiations between Ukraine and Russia.
   • Assessment: This confirms DIRECT ENGAGEMENT between Trump's team and Zelenskyy, specifically focused on NEGOTIATIONS. This reinforces the HIGH PROBABILITY OF A SHIFT IN US POLICY if Trump regains power.

7. Zelenskyy's Phone Call with Gitanas Nausėda (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

• Zelenskiy / Official (18:18 UTC) reports a phone conversation between President Zelenskyy and Lithuanian President, Gitanas Nausėda. He emphasizes: that "Europe must be a full-fledged participant in any negotiations to end the war", and the necessity to provide "reliable security guarantees" to Ukraine.
• Assessment: This confirms that Ukraine is not going to give up land, and that the war will continue.

8. Claimed Russian Advance, Near Nadiia, Luhansk Oblast (REPORTED, RUSSIAN-ALIGNED SOURCE):

• Сливочный каприз (18:31 UTC) reports, "Positional fighting on the southern outskirts of Krasnoarmiiske. The RF Armed Forces expanded the control zone on the Nadiia-Uspenivka line, advancing up to 1 km north of Nadiia. The forward position of the RF Armed Forces was shelled by the Armed Forces of Ukraine."
• Assessment: This needs further verification.

Updated Situation Summary

• IMMINENT BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The threat of Russian ballistic missile strikes originating from Kursk Oblast is CONFIRMED and IMMINENT. All regions under air raid alert are at HIGH RISK.

• ONGOING DRONE ACTIVITY (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Drone activity continues in multiple regions, including Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. The TARGETS ARE UNKNOWN, but the spread-out nature of the activity suggests a potential for MULTIPLE SIMULTANEOUS ATTACKS or reconnaissance missions.

• AIR DEFENSE ACTIVE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Ukrainian air defenses are ACTIVELY ENGAGED in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

• UKRAINE-US RARE EARTH DEAL (HIGH PRIORITY): Confirmation that Ukraine is reviewing a draft agreement on rare earth minerals with the US, and Zelensky's hesitation to sign it without further negotiation, adds another layer of complexity to the situation.

• DRONE WARFARE INTENSIFIES (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Reports from multiple sources, on both sides, emphasize the CRITICAL AND INCREASING ROLE OF DRONES in reconnaissance, targeting, and direct attacks. The reported German drone delivery to Ukraine will SIGNIFICANTLY enhance this aspect of the conflict.

• KURSK REGION (HIGH PRIORITY): Conflicting claims about the military situation in the Kursk region, potential Ukrainian successes in targeting high-value military assets near Moscow, and ongoing fighting along the border in the Kursk region highlight the importance of this area.

Updated Recommendations

1. MAINTAIN EXTREME VIGILANCE FOR BALLISTIC MISSILE STRIKES (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Maintain highest alert level in all regions under air raid warning.
   • Deploy all available air defense assets to intercept potential incoming missiles.
   • Prepare for mass casualty events and infrastructure damage.

2. CONTINUE TRACKING DRONE ACTIVITY (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Utilize all available radar and surveillance assets to track drone movements.
   • Attempt to identify drone types and potential targets.
   • Deploy counter-drone measures as needed.

3. SUPPORT AIR DEFENSE OPERATIONS IN ZAPORIZHZHIA (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Provide any necessary support to air defense units engaged in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
   • Gather intelligence on the nature of the threats being engaged.

4. INVESTIGATE KURSK OBLAST REPORTS (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Attempt to independently verify reports about fighting, claimed Ukrainian losses, and the alleged atrocity.
   • Use all available intelligence assets, including radar data and communication intercepts to verify reports.

5. VERIFY RUSSIAN ADVANCE CLAIMS (MULTIPLE LOCATIONS, HIGH PRIORITY): Deploy intelligence assets to verify/refute Russian claims of advances (especially in the Kupyansk, Kreminna, Chasiv Yar, Krasnoarmeysk, Kurakhov directions, and Dnipro delta).

6. ASSESS UKRAINIAN DRONE CAPABILITIES (EXTREME PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Gather intelligence on Ukrainian drone production, modification, repair, and new capabilities (e.g., Helsing drones, AI integration).
   • Assess the impact of these capabilities on the battlefield.

7. COUNTER-DRONE MEASURES (EXTREME PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Prioritize deployment of counter-drone systems.
   • Develop and deploy ECM and kinetic defenses.
   • Focus on the new threat posed by the reported German HX-2 drones.

8. MONITOR RUSSIAN RECRUITMENT EFFORTS (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Track Russian recruitment campaigns and their effectiveness.
   • Analyze potential impact of increased contract soldier numbers.

9. COUNTER RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Continue countering Russian propaganda.
   • Address claims regarding civilian casualties and Ukrainian military actions.

10. SUPPORT CIVILIAN POPULATIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):

    • Maintain efforts to protect civilians.
    • Address any fallout from incidents (e.g., Donetsk/Makeevka, Kursk).

11. MAINTAIN INFORMATION WARFARE EFFORTS (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):

    • Continue countering Russian propaganda.
    • Highlight Ukrainian successes.

12. INVESTIGATE REPORTED INCIDENTS (HIGH/MEDIUM PRIORITY, AS NEEDED):

    • Attempt to independently verify claims of Ukrainian sabotage near Moscow, the Munich car attack details, and the claimed destruction of the US-made bridge layer.

13. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT. The situation is EXTREMELY DYNAMIC AND DANGEROUS. The HIGHEST PRIORITIES are verifying Trump's statements and potential US policy shifts, monitoring escalating tensions with Moldova, assessing and countering the intensifying drone warfare, and verifying claims of Russian advances and Ukrainian counter-attacks.

The situation remains EXTREMELY DYNAMIC AND DANGEROUS. The IMMINENT BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT from Kursk Oblast and ONGOING DRONE ACTIVITY are the MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERNS. VERIFYING RUSSIAN ADVANCE CLAIMS and MONITORING THE ZAPORIZHZHIA REGION remain HIGH PRIORITIES. All previous recommendations remain in effect.