Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 13, 2025, 11:38 UTC

Changes Since 11:08 UTC (Very High Priority)

1. UKRAINE WILL NOT JOIN NATO (TRUMP CLAIM, FINNISH SOURCE):

   • Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEET/TIEDOTTEET (11:08 UTC) reports, citing an image of Finnish and Swedish officials, that Trump claims Ukraine will never join NATO.
   • Assessment: This is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT if confirmed, and would represent a SIGNIFICANT VICTORY FOR RUSSIAN DIPLOMATIC/MILITARY PRESSURE. It fundamentally alters the strategic landscape. However, this is currently a CLAIM based on an image caption, not a direct statement from Trump, and should be treated with caution until verified. The source is known for pro-Russian views.

2. DRONE WARFARE INTENSIFICATION (RUSSIAN & UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

   • Старше Эдды (11:09 UTC) provides video evidence of a Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" heavy drone being destroyed by a Russian "Upyr" kamikaze drone, after a failed attempt to capture a Russian "Mavic" drone with a net. Claims increased Russian drone production.
   • Рыбарь (11:17 UTC) relays the same video and information.
   • Assessment: This confirms the INTENSE AND EVOLVING DRONE WARFARE on both sides. The incident highlights both offensive and counter-drone tactics. The claim of increased Russian drone production is significant and requires verification. The video SUPPORTS the previous assessment of increasing drone threats.

3. CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCE, KOTLYNE CEMETERY (UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (11:20 UTC) provides video claimed to be from the Kotlyne cemetery in the Pokrovsk direction, showing numerous dead Russian soldiers. Claims they were killed by FPV drones during an attack using a captured M113 and a BTR-82A.
   • Assessment: If verified, this CONFIRMS SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN CASUALTIES in the area and SUPPORTS claims of a Russian advance (or attempted advance). The video also showcases Ukrainian EFFECTIVENESS WITH FPV DRONES. The use of a cemetery for combat is noteworthy, indicating either desperate tactics or potential violations of the laws of war. The video requires further analysis to confirm the claims.

4. UKRAINIAN SANCTIONS (UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • РБК-Україна (11:22 UTC) provides the news of indefinite sanctions.
   • Assessment: This indicates continued efforts by the Ukrainian government to address internal issues and consolidate control, even during wartime.

5. CLAIMED UKRAINIAN DRONE DELIVERIES (UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • STERNENKO (11:16 UTC) claims another 300 drones were delivered to various Ukrainian units, with specific numbers and unit designations.
   • Assessment: This further emphasizes the CRITICAL ROLE OF DRONES in the Ukrainian defense and the reliance on CIVILIAN FUNDING AND SUPPORT. The specific unit designations provide insight into where these drones are being deployed. The provided videos reinforce the claims of drone effectiveness.

6. RUSSIAN COUNTER-TERRORISM OPERATION, PSKOV (RUSSIAN SOURCES):

   • Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (11:31 UTC) reports an FSB operation in Pskov preventing a planned terrorist attack on a railway station. Claims the attackers were affiliated with a banned international terrorist organization and planned to flee to the Middle East. Provides video evidence of the operation.
   • АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (11:35 UTC) repeats the same information.
   • Assessment: This indicates INTERNAL SECURITY CONCERNS within Russia and the ongoing threat of terrorism. The video evidence supports the FSB's claims, showing a raid and the discovery of IED-making materials.

7. UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKES, KHARKIV DIRECTION (UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 (11:36 UTC) provides video evidence of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian positions in the Kharkiv direction, claiming 8 positions were hit.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS CONTINUED UKRAINIAN DRONE ACTIVITY and their effectiveness in targeting enemy positions. It reinforces the strategic importance of the Kharkiv region.

8. SMOKE AND ODOR IN DONETSK/MAKEEVKA (RUSSIAN-ALIGNED SOURCE):

   • Mash на Донбассе (11:36 UTC) reports a strong, choking smell and smoke in Makeevka and Donetsk, with the source unknown. The MChS (Ministry of Emergency Situations) claims no fires are burning.
   • Assessment: This could indicate a SIGNIFICANT INCIDENT, potentially an industrial accident, a concealed military strike, or a deliberate act. The lack of explanation from the MChS is concerning. It requires IMMEDIATE INVESTIGATION.

9. GERMAN DRONE DELIVERY TO UKRAINE (RUSSIAN SOURCE):

• Два майора (11:32) reports on a plan by the German company "Helsing" to supply 6,000 HX-2 drones with AI capabilities to Ukraine. Claims the AI can overcome EW jamming and the drone has a range of 100km. Mentions a "swarm drone" concept.
• Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT in the potential escalation of the conflict. AI-enabled drones with a 100km range pose a MAJOR THREAT. The "swarm drone" concept, if realized, would further complicate air defense. This requires EXTREME HIGH PRIORITY for monitoring and developing countermeasures.

10. UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKES, NAVAL FORCES (UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

• Оперативний ЗСУ (11:24 UTC) provides a video claiming the Ukrainian Navy downed 11 drones.
• Assessment: Demonstrates the Ukrainian Navy's capability in drone defense.

Updated Situation Summary

• INTENSIFIED DRONE WARFARE (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Multiple reports and video evidence confirm the widespread and increasingly sophisticated use of drones by both sides, including counter-drone tactics. New German drones pose a significant new threat.
• POTENTIAL MAJOR SHIFT IN NATO POLICY (HIGH PRIORITY, UNCONFIRMED): The claim that Trump stated Ukraine will never join NATO is potentially game-changing, but requires confirmation.
• POSSIBLE INCIDENT IN DONETSK/MAKEEVKA (HIGH PRIORITY, UNCONFIRMED): The unexplained smoke and odor require immediate investigation.
• RUSSIAN INTERNAL SECURITY CONCERNS (HIGH PRIORITY): The reported FSB operation in Pskov highlights internal terrorist threats.
• CONTINUED FIGHTING IN MULTIPLE DIRECTIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY): Reports continue of heavy fighting and drone strikes along multiple axes, particularly in the Pokrovsk and Kharkiv directions.
• UKRAINIAN RELIANCE ON CIVILIAN SUPPORT (CONFIRMED): Continued reports of drone deliveries funded by donations highlight this dependency.
• ALL PREVIOUS ASSESSMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT, with the addition of the new developments.

Updated Recommendations

1. VERIFY TRUMP'S NATO STATEMENT (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Seek confirmation from official US sources, the Trump campaign, or reliable media outlets.
   • Analyze any available audio or video of the alleged statement.
   • Assess the potential impact on NATO policy and Ukrainian security guarantees.

2. INVESTIGATE DONETSK/MAKEEVKA INCIDENT (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy reconnaissance assets (drones, satellites) to determine the source of the smoke and odor.
   • Gather HUMINT (human intelligence) from local sources.
   • Prepare for potential humanitarian consequences (air quality, evacuations).

3. COUNTER-DRONE MEASURES (EXTREME PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Accelerate deployment of counter-drone systems across all frontline areas, prioritizing those with confirmed heavy drone activity.
   • Focus on countering the new threat posed by the reported German HX-2 drones, including their AI capabilities. Develop and deploy ECM (electronic countermeasures) and kinetic defenses.
   • Continue to train personnel on drone identification and response.

4. MONITOR RUSSIAN INTERNAL SECURITY (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Increase intelligence gathering on potential terrorist threats within Russia and occupied territories.
   • Analyze the FSB operation in Pskov for lessons learned and potential vulnerabilities.

5. REINFORCE HOTSPOTS (EXTREME PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Continue to prioritize reinforcement and resource allocation to areas experiencing heavy fighting, particularly Pokrovsk and Kharkiv directions.
   • Analyze the reported Russian casualties in Kotlyne to assess the effectiveness of Ukrainian tactics and identify potential weaknesses in Russian operations.

6. SUPPORT CIVILIAN POPULATIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Maintain efforts to protect civilians in conflict zones, including evacuations and provision of humanitarian aid.
   • Address the potential impact of the Donetsk/Makeevka incident on civilian health and safety.

7. MAINTAIN INFORMATION WARFARE EFFORTS (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Continue to counter Russian propaganda and disseminate accurate information about the conflict.
   • Highlight Ukrainian successes in repelling attacks and utilizing donated equipment.

8. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT. The situation remains EXTREMELY DYNAMIC AND DANGEROUS, with multiple evolving threats. The HIGHEST PRIORITIES are verifying Trump's statement, investigating the Donetsk/Makeevka incident, and countering the escalating drone threat.