Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 13, 2025, 11:08 UTC

Changes Since 10:38 UTC (Very High Priority)

1. RUBLE STRENGTHENING (CLAIMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • TASS (10:41 UTC) reports the ruble will continue to strengthen, citing international conditions and central bank policies.
   • Assessment: This could indicate economic stability within Russia, potentially allowing for sustained military spending. However, it could also be propaganda to project an image of strength.

2. PUTIN-TRUMP MEETING ANALYSIS (RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Kotsnews (10:42 UTC) emphasizes the format of the upcoming Putin-Trump meeting as being more important than the initial content. It stresses that Ukraine will be a "bystander" in the talks.
   • Assessment: This reinforces the previous assessment that the meeting is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT with potentially GRAVE IMPLICATIONS for Ukraine. It highlights the possibility of a deal being made without Ukrainian input.

3. NEW UKRAINIAN APPOINTMENT (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • RBC-Ukraine (10:44 UTC) reports Serhiy Kyslytsia, former Ukrainian representative to the UN, has been appointed First Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs.
   • Assessment: This strengthens Ukraine's diplomatic team, potentially to counter any negative outcomes from the Putin-Trump meeting. Kyslytsia's reputation for strong statements against Russia could be significant.

4. KRAMATORSK STRIKE (CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES, EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Colonelcassad (10:44 UTC) confirms a strike on an industrial object in Kramatorsk. Claims strikes have intensified recently, and will increase further as Russian forces advance.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS earlier reports of strikes in Kramatorsk. The stated intention to increase strikes is a MAJOR THREAT.

5. DRONE STRIKES AND FUNDING (UKRAINIAN PROPAGANDA):

   • STERNENKO (10:44 UTC) releases a video showing drone strikes on Russian targets, claiming they were funded by donations. Mentions conversations between Trump, Putin, and Zelensky.
   • Assessment: This is a propaganda effort to showcase Ukrainian effectiveness and encourage continued support. The mention of Trump, Putin, and Zelensky is likely meant to capitalize on current news.

6. POKROVSK DIRECTION (RUSSIAN CLAIM):

   • Военкор Котенок (10:45 UTC) reports Russian advances in Udachne, with continued fighting and drone use. Claims Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold positions in Peschanoye, with Russian counterattacks.
   • Assessment: This map, if accurate, shows a SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN ADVANCE, specifically that they are close to Ukrainian lines.

7. UKRAINE OIL PRODUCTION THREAT (UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Оперативний ЗСУ (10:46) claims that Russia may be forced to reduce oil production.
   • Assessment: This may be propaganda, however, it may also contain truth due to the number of strikes carried out against Russian refineries.

8. BRYANSK GOVERNOR MEETING (RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • AV БогомаZ (10:47 UTC) reports on a meeting between Putin and the Bryansk governor, discussing border security and support for military personnel.
   • Assessment: This reinforces the importance of border regions and the ongoing impact of the conflict on Russian society.

9. RUSSIAN MILITARY OPERATIONS (RUSSIAN SOURCE):

• Военкор Котенок (10:47 UTC) reports powerful explosions in the industrial area in Kramatorsk.
• Assessment: Confirms a heavy focus on the city.

Updated Situation Summary

• IMMEDIATE KRAMATORSK STRIKE (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): A strike is confirmed in the city, and more strikes are expected.
• CONTINUED AIR ATTACK THREAT (EXTREME PRIORITY): Enemy tactical aviation activity is confirmed in the northeast, threatening frontline areas with airstrikes.
• PREPARATIONS FOR THE PUTIN-TRUMP MEETING CONTINUE. The format of the meeting is deemed more important than the content by Russian sources.
• DIPLOMATIC TENSIONS WITH MOLDOVA, likely related to drones.
• RUSSIAN FORCES CONTINUE OPERATIONS targeting crucial areas in the east.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT: The overall situation remains highly dynamic and dangerous, with multiple ongoing threats and potential for rapid escalation.

Updated Recommendations

1. IMMEDIATE RESPONSE TO KRAMATORSK STRIKE (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Activate all available air defense systems in and around Kramatorsk.
   • Issue immediate public warnings to seek shelter.
   • Deploy rapid response teams to assess damage and provide assistance after the strike.
   • Prioritize the protection of critical infrastructure.

2. MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT FOR AIR THREATS (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Maintain high alert for air defenses across Ukraine, particularly in the northeast and in areas previously targeted by guided bombs.
   • Continuously monitor for further launches of missiles or drones.
   • Prepare for potential follow-up attacks.

3. ADDRESS THE PUTIN-TRUMP MEETING (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Continue with all recommendations.

4. COUNTER RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA (EXTREME PRIORITY): All previous recommendations, plus:

• Actively debunk false or misleading information.

5. ADDRESS UKRAINIAN MORALE (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Investigate the claims made by Ukrainian soldiers.
   • Work to ensure their needs are addressed.

6. INVESTIGATE MOLDOVA DRONE INCIDENT (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Continue to provide full support to Moldovan authorities in investigating the drone incidents.
   • Continue to share intelligence on potential drone launch sites and flight paths.

7. VERIFY RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN VODYANE DRUHE AND NEAR BURLATS'KE (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Continue to use all means to confirm claims.

8. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT: Priorities have been adjusted as indicated above. The MOST CRITICAL IMMEDIATE TASKS are responding to the strikes in Sumy and Kramatorsk, and continuous monitoring of air activity.

9. MONITOR THE ECONOMIC SITUATION (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Evaluate reports of the Ruble strengthening.
   • Attempt to confirm information related to oil production.

10. UKRAINIAN DIPLOMATIC TEAM (HIGH PRIORITY):

• Assess the strategic implications of Kyslytsia's new role.

11. POKROVSK DIRECTION (HIGH PRIORITY):

• Verify the claimed Russian advances using multiple sources.
• Adjust troop deployments and resource allocation in response to the situation.

12. BRYANSK BORDER REGION (MONITOR):

• Maintain situational awareness of events, and potential escalation.