Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 13, 2025, 10:38 UTC

Changes Since 10:08 UTC (Very High Priority)

1. ROCKET ATTACK ON SUMY (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN AIR FORCE):

   • Ukrainian Air Force (10:18 UTC) reports a high-speed target on the border of Sumy Oblast, heading southwest.
   • Ukrainian Air Force (10:19 UTC) reports a rocket heading towards the city of Sumy.
   • RBC-Ukraine (10:19 UTC) confirms the rocket threat to Sumy.
   • Assessment: This constitutes a MAJOR AND IMMEDIATE THREAT to Sumy. The short warning time and the speed of the target suggest a ballistic missile attack, posing an extreme danger to civilians and infrastructure. This CONFIRMS the earlier report of a drone threat.

2. AIR ACTIVITY IN NORTHEAST (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN AIR FORCE):

   • Ukrainian Air Force (10:21 UTC) reports enemy tactical aviation activity in the northeast, with a threat of airstrikes in frontline areas.
   • Assessment: This reinforces the ongoing threat of air attacks, particularly for areas close to the Russian border.

3. RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR BURLATS'KE (CLAIMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Военкор Котенок (10:25 UTC) provided a map from 09:56.
   • Assessment: This map, if accurate, shows a SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN ADVANCE, specifically that they are close to Ukrainian lines.

4. RUSSIAN AIRCRAFT LOSSES (UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

• ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 (10:07 UTC) states that the area is named after the type of settlement called "Sloboda", where refugees lived.
• Assessment: This message is about Ukrainian history, and is most likely used to build morale, but has no operational impact.

5. PUTIN-TRUMP MEETING PREPARATIONS (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCES, EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • WarGonzo (10:20 UTC) reports key moments from the preparations for the talks, most importantly, topics such as the recognition of Crimea, Sevastopol, Donbass and Novorossiya were not discussed.
   • Assessment: This confirms that preparations for the meeting are in full motion.

6. MOLDOVA DRONE INCIDENT (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • ТАСС (10:09 UTC) reports the Russian Ambassador has arrived at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Moldova, after claims of drones falling.
   • Assessment: This confirms a DIPLOMATIC INCIDENT is taking place, related to the war.

7. RUSSIAN MILITARY OPERATIONS (RUSSIAN SOURCE):

• MoD Russia (10:03 UTC) reports on progress, listing a long number of enemy losses.
• Assessment: These reports cannot be confirmed, but indicate Russia is still intensely focused on the operation.

8. RUSSIAN MILITARY OPERATIONS (RUSSIAN SOURCE):

• Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (10:34 UTC) reports powerful explosions and a massive attack in Kramatorsk, near the railway station and a machinery factory.
• Assessment: Confirms a heavy focus on the city.

9. RUSSIAN MILITARY OPERATIONS (RUSSIAN SOURCE):

• Colonelcassad (10:34 UTC) reports the precise and effective work of pilots using FAB bombs.
• Assessment: Confirms a focus on precision.

10. RUSSIAN MILITARY OPERATIONS (RUSSIAN SOURCE):

• Дневник Десантника (10:31 UTC) reports activity on the Lipetsk and Volchansk fronts.
• Assessment: Confirms fighting and small advances in the area.

Updated Situation Summary

• IMMEDIATE ROCKET ATTACK ON SUMY (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): A ballistic missile attack is underway, posing an EXTREME AND IMMEDIATE THREAT to the city.
• CONTINUED AIR ATTACK THREAT (EXTREME PRIORITY): Enemy tactical aviation activity is confirmed in the northeast, threatening frontline areas with airstrikes. Guided bomb launches are ongoing in Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts.
• PREPARATIONS FOR THE PUTIN-TRUMP MEETING CONTINUE.
• DIPLOMATIC TENSIONS WITH MOLDOVA, likely related to drones.
• RUSSIAN FORCES CONTINUE OPERATIONS targeting crucial areas in the east.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT: The overall situation remains highly dynamic and dangerous, with multiple ongoing threats and potential for rapid escalation.

Updated Recommendations

1. IMMEDIATE RESPONSE TO SUMY ROCKET ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Activate all available air defense systems in and around Sumy.
   • Issue immediate public warnings to seek shelter.
   • Deploy rapid response teams to assess damage and provide assistance after the strike.
   • Prioritize the protection of critical infrastructure.

2. MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT FOR AIR THREATS (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Maintain high alert for air defenses across Ukraine, particularly in the northeast and in areas previously targeted by guided bombs.
   • Continuously monitor for further launches of missiles or drones.
   • Prepare for potential follow-up attacks.

3. ADDRESS THE PUTIN-TRUMP MEETING (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Continue with all recommendations.

4. COUNTER RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA (EXTREME PRIORITY): All previous recommendations, plus:

• Actively debunk false or misleading information.

5. ADDRESS UKRAINIAN MORALE (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Investigate the claims made by Ukrainian soldiers.
   • Work to ensure their needs are addressed.

6. INVESTIGATE MOLDOVA DRONE INCIDENT (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Continue to provide full support to Moldovan authorities in investigating the drone incidents.
   • Continue to share intelligence on potential drone launch sites and flight paths.

7. VERIFY RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN VODYANE DRUHE AND NEAR BURLATS'KE (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Continue to use all means to confirm claims.

8. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT: Priorities have been adjusted as indicated above. The MOST CRITICAL IMMEDIATE TASKS is responding to the missile attack in Sumy, and continuous monitoring of air activity.