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Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-02-13 07:08:46Z
7 months ago
Previous (2025-02-13 06:38:38Z)

Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 13, 2025, 07:08 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (06:38 UTC - 07:08 UTC, February 13)

Kharkiv Oblast Shelling and Drone Attacks (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE)

  • Oleg Sinegubov Summary (CONFIRMED): The head of the Kharkiv Regional State Administration, Oleg Sinegubov, provides a summary of attacks over the past 24 hours:
    • No strikes on Kharkiv city.
    • February 12, 21:48: Kharkiv district, Novovodolazka community, Rokytne village. Shahed drone debris found.
    • 21:45: Chuhuiv district, Taranivka village. Glazing and fence of 2 private houses and a gas station damaged by a drone falling in a forest strip.
    • 13:00: Izium district, Borivska community, Horokhovatka village. Glazing of windows and doors of a shop building and an ambulance service car damaged by shelling.
    • 12:30: Bohodukhiv district, Zolochiv community, Karasivka village. 10 private houses and outbuildings damaged by KAB strikes.
    • 09:36: Izium district, Borivska community, Pisky-Radkivski village. Glazing of windows and roof of a house damaged by MLRS shelling.
    • No active enemy actions in the Kharkiv direction.
    • Eight enemy attacks repelled in the Kupiansk direction near Kindrashivka, Petropavlivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Novoosinove, Pishchane, Lozova, and Zahryzove.
    • 48 people (1 child) evacuated from the Kupiansk and Borivska directions.
  • Assessment: This confirms CONTINUED SHELLING AND DRONE ATTACKS in Kharkiv Oblast, targeting CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE and causing damage. The report also reinforces the INTENSE FIGHTING in the Kupiansk direction, with Ukrainian forces repelling multiple attacks. The evacuation figures highlight the CONTINUING HUMANITARIAN IMPACT of the conflict.

Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Evacuations (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE)

  • Sergiy Lysak Reports (CONFIRMED): Sergiy Lysak, head of the Dnipropetrovsk Regional State Administration, reports on evacuations from frontline villages in the Novopavlivska, Mezhivska, and Velykomykhailivska communities of the Synelnykivskyi district:
    • Over 75% of residents have left voluntarily.
    • Efforts are focused on families with children, the elderly, and people with limited mobility.
    • A hotline (066 748 69 81) is operational.
    • Local authorities, police, and regional and international charities (including UNHCR and "Proliska") are involved.
    • 100% of evacuation requests have been fulfilled.
    • Evacuees are being relocated mainly to the Samarivskyi and Kamianskyi districts.
  • Assessment: This confirms LARGE-SCALE CIVILIAN EVACUATIONS from frontline areas in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, indicating a SIGNIFICANT DETERIORATION in the security situation. The involvement of multiple agencies highlights the COMPLEXITY of the humanitarian response.

Sumy Drone Attack (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE)

  • Sumi Regional Military Administration Report (Confirmed): They confirm that the drones were aimed at a private housing sector.
  • Assessment: The information points to Russia's strategic targeting of civilian areas.

IAEA Convoy Attack (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE)

  • TASS Report (CONFIRMED): TASS reports that three IAEA experts have returned to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) after the disrupted rotation, and they are safe. The station's communications director confirms this.
  • Cars (Confirmed): TASS reports that cars were not damaged during the attack.
  • Assessment: This PARTIALLY CONTRADICTS earlier Russian reports claiming damage to vehicles. It confirms the DISRUPTION of the rotation but suggests the IMMEDIATE DANGER to the IAEA personnel has passed. The conflicting reports on vehicle damage need FURTHER INVESTIGATION.
  • Timeline: A detailed timeline has been created with help of multiple sources.

Ukrainian Military "Elite" Brigade Redeployment (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE)

  • Arkhangel Spetsnaza Report (REPORTED): Claims the 3rd Assault Brigade (considered "elite") has been noted in the north of Kharkiv Oblast. The source suggests this deployment may indicate a potential intensification of fighting in the Belgorod direction or the Volchansk area. The report characterizes the brigade's previous actions as largely for "image" and "hype."
  • Assessment: This report requires CAREFUL VERIFICATION. The presence of the 3rd Assault Brigade in Kharkiv Oblast, IF CONFIRMED, could indicate a SHIFT IN UKRAINIAN STRATEGY or preparations for a counteroffensive. However, the source's NEGATIVE CHARACTERIZATION of the brigade's effectiveness should be treated with SKEPTICISM.

Drone Warfare Statistics (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE)

  • Voenkor Kotenok Report (REPORTED): Claims Ukrainian forces organized a "massive raid" of fixed-wing drones on Russian regions, with 83 drones shot down by air defenses. Specific regions and numbers are listed:
    • Bryansk Oblast: 37
    • Kursk and Lipetsk Oblasts: 12 each
    • Tver Oblast: 9
    • Belgorod, Kaluga, Smolensk, and Voronezh Oblasts: 3 each
    • Rostov Oblast: 1
  • Assessment: This report highlights the INTENSE AND WIDESPREAD nature of drone warfare, with Ukraine demonstrating the capability to launch LARGE-SCALE ATTACKS deep into Russian territory. The high number of claimed shootdowns suggests SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN AIR DEFENSE ACTIVITY. The report needs INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION.

Propaganda and Information Warfare

  • "Putin's Kiss" (Confirmed): The video shows the destruction of a soldier. This is a propaganda effort.
  • Victory Day (Confirmed): Xi Jinping has reportedly agreed to go to the Victory Day Parade in Moscow.
  • Kellogg Kellogg is travelling to Europe to discuss the situation in Ukraine.
  • Ammunition (Reported): Multiple sources are discussing ammunition shortages and reliance on drones.
  • Medvedev's Statement (Reported): The world was supposedly close to destruction, before the call between Putin and Trump.
  • Fighterbomber (Reported): Fighterbomber discusses Ukraine's situation after the call.
  • New Russian Recruitment (Reported): There is a new unified electronic system for the military registration in Russia.

Updated Situation Summary

  1. CONTINUED INTENSE FIGHTING ACROSS MULTIPLE FRONTS (EXTREME PRIORITY): Confirmed by multiple sources, with particular focus on the Kupiansk, Pokrovsk, and Kursk directions.
  2. SIGNIFICANT EUROPEAN SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE (HIGH PRIORITY): Remains a key factor.
  3. POTENTIAL RUSSIAN MILITARY BASE IN LIBYA (MEDIUM PRIORITY): Requires monitoring.
  4. TRUMP-PUTIN CALL AFTERMATH (HIGH PRIORITY): Reports of the call's impact continue to fuel uncertainty and concern, particularly in Europe.
  5. PARTISAN ACTIVITY IN CRIMEA (MEDIUM PRIORITY): Remains a factor.
  6. LIPETSK DRONE ATTACK TARGET CONFIRMED (EXTREME PRIORITY): The attack on the Lipetsk Metallurgical Plant is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT, demonstrating Ukrainian capability to strike deep within Russian territory and target critical infrastructure.
  7. ALLEGED UKRAINIAN ATTACK ON IAEA CONVOY (EXTREME PRIORITY): This is a VERY SERIOUS incident with MAJOR INTERNATIONAL IMPLICATIONS, requiring IMMEDIATE INVESTIGATION. Conflicting reports on damage to vehicles.
  8. NAIEV'S REASSIGNMENT (HIGH PRIORITY): Confirms a significant command change within the Ukrainian military.
  9. RUSSIAN MILITARY RECRUITMENT ISSUES (MEDIUM PRIORITY): Reports highlight ongoing Russian efforts to bolster manpower through potentially controversial means.
  10. ONGOING WIDESPREAD DRONE WARFARE (EXTREME PRIORITY): Remains a dominant feature of the conflict, with reports of large-scale Ukrainian drone attacks deep into Russian territory.
  11. LARGE-SCALE CIVILIAN EVACUATIONS IN DNIPROPETROVSK OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY): Indicates a significant deterioration in the security situation in frontline areas.
  12. POTENTIAL REDEPLOYMENT OF UKRAINIAN "ELITE" BRIGADE (UNCLEAR): Requires verification, but could signal a shift in Ukrainian strategy.
  13. CONTINUED SHELLING AND DRONE ATTACKS IN KHARKIV OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY): Targeting civilian infrastructure and causing damage.

Updated Recommendations

  1. INVESTIGATE ALLEGED ATTACK ON IAEA CONVOY (EXTREME PRIORITY):

    • Immediately and thoroughly investigate the reported Ukrainian drone and artillery attack on the Russian military convoy escorting IAEA inspectors to the ZNPP.
    • Gather all available evidence, including drone footage, witness testimonies, and forensic analysis of the attack site.
    • Correlate information from Russian sources with independent sources, including the IAEA, to determine the veracity of the claims.
    • Assess the potential consequences of this incident, including its impact on international relations, the safety of the ZNPP, and the future of IAEA inspections.
    • If the attack is confirmed as deliberate, prepare a strong condemnation and consider appropriate diplomatic and legal responses.
    • Verify claims of damage to vehicles.

  2. EXPLOIT LIPETSK ATTACK (HIGH PRIORITY):

    • Confirm the extent of damage to the Lipetsk Metallurgical Plant through satellite imagery and other intelligence sources.
    • Assess the impact of the attack on Russian industrial capacity and the war effort.
    • Prepare further strikes on similar targets within Russia, prioritizing those with the greatest strategic impact.
    • Communicate the success of the attack to bolster Ukrainian morale and demonstrate capability to strike deep within Russian territory.

  3. ADDRESS CONCERNS RAISED BY TRUMP-PUTIN CALL (HIGH PRIORITY):

    • Continue to track any developments related to potential Trump-Putin interactions.
    • Engage with European allies to address their concerns and reaffirm commitment to Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity.
    • Prepare for various diplomatic scenarios, including the possibility of negotiations that exclude Ukraine.
    • Reinforce the message that any settlement must respect Ukraine's interests and involve its full participation.

  4. VERIFY REPORTED REDEPLOYMENT OF 3RD ASSAULT BRIGADE (HIGH PRIORITY):

    • Gather intelligence to confirm the presence and location of the 3rd Assault Brigade in Kharkiv Oblast.
    • Assess the brigade's operational readiness and potential objectives.
    • Analyze the potential implications of this redeployment for the balance of forces and the likelihood of future offensives in the region.

  5. ADDRESS HUMANITARIAN CRISIS IN DNIPROPETROVSK OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY):

    • Provide support to local authorities in managing the large-scale civilian evacuations.
    • Ensure adequate resources (shelter, food, medical care) are available for evacuees.
    • Coordinate with international aid organizations to maximize assistance efforts.
    • Monitor the security situation in frontline areas to anticipate further evacuations.

  6. COUNTER RUSSIAN DRONE THREAT (EXTREME PRIORITY):

    • Enhance air defense capabilities across Ukraine, prioritizing the protection of critical infrastructure and population centers.
    • Invest in counter-drone technologies to improve detection and interception rates.
    • Develop strategies to disrupt the supply and deployment of Russian drones.

  7. VERIFY RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF DRONE SHOOTDOWNS (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

    • Gather independent intelligence to confirm or refute the reported number of Ukrainian drones shot down over Russian territory.
    • Assess the effectiveness of Russian air defenses and identify potential vulnerabilities.

  8. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT, WITH PRIORITIES ADJUSTED AS INDICATED. This includes:

    • PRIORITIZE REINFORCEMENTS AND DEFENSES IN KEY HOTSPOTS (EXTREME PRIORITY).
    • INTEGRATE NEW EUROPEAN MILITARY AID (HIGH PRIORITY).
    • MONITOR POTENTIAL RUSSIAN ACTIVITY IN LIBYA (HIGH PRIORITY).
    • TRACK DIPLOMATIC DEVELOPMENTS (HIGH PRIORITY).
    • VERIFY AND EXPLOIT PARTISAN INTELLIGENCE (MEDIUM PRIORITY).
    • ADDRESS CIVILIAN IMPACT OF DRONE ATTACKS (MEDIUM PRIORITY).
    • MAINTAIN PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).
    • INVESTIGATE MAGATE CONVOY ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY).
    • MAINTAIN MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE READINESS (EXTREME PRIORITY).
    • COUNTER RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA (HIGH PRIORITY).
    • ADDRESS DAMAGE TO CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE (HIGH PRIORITY).
    • INVESTIGATE CLAIMS OF TEENAGERS SERVING IN AFU (HIGH PRIORITY).
    • ASSESS IMPLICATIONS OF US-UKRAINE RELATIONS (MEDIUM PRIORITY).
    • TRACK HUNGARY-UKRAINE TENSIONS (MEDIUM PRIORITY).
    • ANALYZE EFFECTIVENESS OF UKRAINIAN "DRONE LINE" (HIGH PRIORITY).
    • CONTINUE TO MONITOR RUSSIAN ATTACKS ON INFRASTRUCTURE (HIGH PRIORITY).
    • ADDRESS WATER SITUATION IN DONETSK (MEDIUM PRIORITY).
    • VERIFY KILLING OF UKRAINIAN FIGHTER (MEDIUM PRIORITY).
      • VERIFY CLAIMS of RUSSIAN SOLDIER MISTREATMENT (EXTREME PRIORITY).
      • VERIFY REPORTED TERRITORIAL CHANGES near VOZDVIZHENKA (EXTREME PRIORITY).
      • GATHER INTELLIGENCE on the "SIVALKA VM-8" SYSTEM (HIGH PRIORITY).
      • VERIFY REPORT of BRITISH MERCENARY DEATH (MEDIUM PRIORITY).
      • MONITOR NIKOPOL and KRYVYI RIH DISTRICTS (HIGH PRIORITY).
      • ASSESS IMPLICATIONS of ZELENSKY'S ANNOUNCEMENT (MEDIUM PRIORITY).

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND DYNAMIC. The confirmed attack on the Lipetsk Metallurgical Plant and the alleged Ukrainian attack on the IAEA convoy are MAJOR EVENTS requiring IMMEDIATE ATTENTION. The widespread use of drones by both sides, the large-scale civilian evacuations, and the potential redeployment of Ukrainian forces all point to an ESCALATING AND EVOLVING CONFLICT. The continued intense fighting and the uncertain diplomatic landscape further underscore the CRITICAL NEED FOR CONSTANT MONITORING, ADAPTATION, AND PROACTIVE MEASURES.

Previous (2025-02-13 06:38:38Z)