Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 13, 2025, 06:38 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (06:08 UTC - 06:38 UTC, February 13)

Putin-Trump Call Aftermath (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCES)

• "Delighted" Moscow (REPORTED): Dnevnik Desantnika provides further details, claiming Trump previously demanded rare earth resources from Ukraine (which are largely in Russian-held territory). Now, Trump allegedly demands a document guaranteeing the return of US funds invested in Ukraine. The source emphasizes Putin will not return "our territories."
• "World on the Brink" (REPORTED): TASS cites Medvedev, stating the Putin-Trump call was crucial because the "world was balancing on the brink of the Apocalypse." Medvedev claims Biden's America "almost cost humanity its life."
• European Shock (REPORTED): TASS, citing Bloomberg, reports European officials were unaware of the call and "shocked" by it, fearing a Trump-Putin deal excluding them.
• Bolton's view (Reported): Operatsia Z reports John Bolton claiming that Putin "is happier than ever" and that "today in the Kremlin, they're drinking vodka straight from the bottle."
• Assessment: These reports paint a consistent, albeit highly biased, picture of the call's impact. The emphasis on Trump's demands and the potential for a deal favorable to Russia fuels Ukrainian anxieties. The "Apocalypse" rhetoric is likely hyperbole, but it reflects the perceived gravity of the situation in Moscow. The European reaction indicates a significant diplomatic rift.

Lipetsk Metallurgical Plant Attack (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE)

• Multiple Explosions (REPORTED): Shef Hayabusa reports "unknown drones" attacked the Lipetsk Metallurgical Plant, with at least 12 explosions reported. A video and images show a fire and a drone.
• Assessment: This CORROBORATES previous reports of a drone attack in Lipetsk Oblast, but now specifies the target as a MAJOR INDUSTRIAL FACILITY. The reported number of explosions suggests a significant strike. This is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT, demonstrating Ukrainian capability to strike deep within Russian territory and target critical infrastructure.

Odesa Oblast Drone Activity (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE)

• Shahed Drones (REPORTED): Shef Hayabusa states that, "it was fun in Odesa region at night too."
• Assessment: This requires monitoring.

Ukrainian Military Situation Update (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE)

• General Staff Summary (CONFIRMED): Operativnyi ZSU repeats the General Staff's key points:
  • 116 combat clashes.
  • Pokrovsk direction: 34 clashes.
  • Kursk: 18 repelled attacks.
  • Novopavlivsk direction: 17 enemy attacks.
  • Russian strikes: 7 missiles, 128 KABs on Ukraine, 28 KABs on Kursk. Over 5,800 shellings, 137 with MLRS, 3,038 kamikaze drones.
  • Ukrainian strikes: Hit 5 enemy drone control points, an air defense system, a concentration of weapons and equipment, and 2 radar stations.
• Assessment: This confirms the INTENSE FIGHTING and HIGH CASUALTY reports from the General Staff maps. The scale of Russian strikes, especially the use of drones and guided bombs, is noteworthy.

Naiev's New Role (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE)

• Frontline Deployment (CONFIRMED): Serhiy Naiev, former Commander of the Joint Forces, confirms he has arrived at his new combat assignment, stating he is "getting up to speed" and "studying the forces and resources." RBC reports that he has been given a combat order as commander of a tactical group "Velyka Novosilka".
• Assessment: This confirms Naiev's reassignment, following earlier reports of him criticizing Ukraine's leadership. His statement emphasizes the "unbreakable warriors" under his command. This is a SIGNIFICANT command change.

Ukrainian Drone Attack near Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE)

• Attack on IAEA Convoy (CONFIRMED): Mash na Donbasse and Dnevnik Desantnika, provide videos and a detailed timeline of an alleged Ukrainian drone and artillery attack targeting a Russian military convoy escorting IAEA inspectors to the ZNPP. The attack reportedly involved mortars, FPV drones, and artillery, causing damage to vehicles but no reported casualties. The rotation of IAEA experts was disrupted.
• Russian Confirmation (Confirmed): Operatsia Z confirms the story.
• Assessment: This is a VERY SERIOUS incident, with MAJOR INTERNATIONAL IMPLICATIONS. The targeting of an IAEA convoy, if confirmed as deliberate, is a grave breach of protocol and risks escalating the conflict. The detailed timeline provided by Russian sources needs to be CAREFULLY CORRELATED with independent information.

Russian Military Recruitment and Legal Issues (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE)

• Electronic Conscription (REPORTED): Sever.Realii reports the activation of a unified military registration system in Russia, allowing for electronic conscription notices. A court case is cited where a conscript was fined for not appearing after receiving an electronic notice.
• Murder Suspect Recruited (REPORTED): ASTRA reports residents of Mogoch, Zabaykalsky Krai, are petitioning against the release of a murder suspect, Sanan Huseynov, who allegedly killed his ex-wife and has now signed a contract with the Ministry of Defense to fight in Ukraine.
• Assessment: These reports highlight ongoing Russian efforts to bolster its military manpower, even through controversial means. The electronic conscription system streamlines the process, while the recruitment of a murder suspect raises serious ethical and legal questions.

Kellogg Trip (Confirmed, Ukrainian Source)

• Kellogg is in Europe (Confirmed): RBC confirms that he has started his trip to meet with allies and partners.

Drone Shootdowns in South Korea (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE)

• Korean Drone (Reported): Rybar reports that a South Korean drone was jammed by North Korea.
• Assessment: This is irrelevant to the Ukrainian situation.

Updated Situation Summary

1. CONTINUED INTENSE FIGHTING ACROSS MULTIPLE FRONTS (EXTREME PRIORITY): Confirmed by multiple sources.
2. SIGNIFICANT EUROPEAN SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE (HIGH PRIORITY): Remains a key factor.
3. POTENTIAL RUSSIAN MILITARY BASE IN LIBYA (MEDIUM PRIORITY): Requires monitoring.
4. TRUMP-PUTIN CALL AFTERMATH (HIGH PRIORITY): Reports of the call's impact continue to fuel uncertainty and concern, particularly in Europe.
5. PARTISAN ACTIVITY IN CRIMEA (MEDIUM PRIORITY): Remains a factor.
6. LIPETSK DRONE ATTACK TARGET CONFIRMED (EXTREME PRIORITY): The attack on the Lipetsk Metallurgical Plant is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT, demonstrating Ukrainian capability to strike deep within Russian territory and target critical infrastructure.
7. ALLEGED UKRAINIAN ATTACK ON IAEA CONVOY (EXTREME PRIORITY): This is a VERY SERIOUS incident with MAJOR INTERNATIONAL IMPLICATIONS, requiring IMMEDIATE INVESTIGATION.
8. NAIEV'S REASSIGNMENT (HIGH PRIORITY): Confirms a significant command change within the Ukrainian military.
9. RUSSIAN MILITARY RECRUITMENT ISSUES (MEDIUM PRIORITY): Reports highlight ongoing Russian efforts to bolster manpower through potentially controversial means.
10. ONGOING WIDESPREAD DRONE WARFARE (EXTREME PRIORITY): Remains a dominant feature of the conflict.

Updated Recommendations

1. INVESTIGATE ALLEGED ATTACK ON IAEA CONVOY (EXTREME PRIORITY):

• Immediately and thoroughly investigate the reported Ukrainian drone and artillery attack on the Russian military convoy escorting IAEA inspectors to the ZNPP.
• Gather all available evidence, including drone footage, witness testimonies, and forensic analysis of the attack site.
• Correlate information from Russian sources with independent sources, including the IAEA, to determine the veracity of the claims.
• Assess the potential consequences of this incident, including its impact on international relations, the safety of the ZNPP, and the future of IAEA inspections.
• If the attack is confirmed as deliberate, prepare a strong condemnation and consider appropriate diplomatic and legal responses.

2. EXPLOIT LIPETSK ATTACK (HIGH PRIORITY):

• Confirm the extent of damage to the Lipetsk Metallurgical Plant through satellite imagery and other intelligence sources.
• Assess the impact of the attack on Russian industrial capacity and the war effort.
• Prepare further strikes on similar targets within Russia, prioritizing those with the greatest strategic impact.
• Communicate the success of the attack to bolster Ukrainian morale and demonstrate capability to strike deep within Russian territory.

3. ADDRESS CONCERNS RAISED BY TRUMP-PUTIN CALL (HIGH PRIORITY):

• Continue to track any developments related to potential Trump-Putin interactions.
• Engage with European allies to address their concerns and reaffirm commitment to Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity.
• Prepare for various diplomatic scenarios, including the possibility of negotiations that exclude Ukraine.
• Reinforce the message that any settlement must respect Ukraine's interests and involve its full participation.

4. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT, WITH PRIORITIES ADJUSTED AS INDICATED. This includes:
   • PRIORITIZE REINFORCEMENTS AND DEFENSES IN KEY HOTSPOTS (EXTREME PRIORITY).
   • INTEGRATE NEW EUROPEAN MILITARY AID (HIGH PRIORITY).
   • MONITOR POTENTIAL RUSSIAN ACTIVITY IN LIBYA (HIGH PRIORITY).
   • TRACK DIPLOMATIC DEVELOPMENTS (HIGH PRIORITY).
   • VERIFY AND EXPLOIT PARTISAN INTELLIGENCE (MEDIUM PRIORITY).
   • ADDRESS CIVILIAN IMPACT OF DRONE ATTACKS (MEDIUM PRIORITY).
   • MAINTAIN PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).
   • INVESTIGATE MAGATE CONVOY ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY).
   • MAINTAIN MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE READINESS (EXTREME PRIORITY).
   • COUNTER RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACKS (HIGH PRIORITY).
   • COUNTER RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA (HIGH PRIORITY).
   • ADDRESS DAMAGE TO CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE (HIGH PRIORITY).
   • INVESTIGATE CLAIMS OF TEENAGERS SERVING IN AFU (HIGH PRIORITY).
   • ASSESS IMPLICATIONS OF US-UKRAINE RELATIONS (MEDIUM PRIORITY).
   • TRACK HUNGARY-UKRAINE TENSIONS (MEDIUM PRIORITY).
   • ANALYZE EFFECTIVENESS OF UKRAINIAN "DRONE LINE" (HIGH PRIORITY).
   • CONTINUE TO MONITOR RUSSIAN ATTACKS ON INFRASTRUCTURE (HIGH PRIORITY).
   • ADDRESS WATER SITUATION IN DONETSK (MEDIUM PRIORITY).
   • VERIFY KILLING OF UKRAINIAN FIGHTER (MEDIUM PRIORITY).
     • VERIFY CLAIMS of RUSSIAN SOLDIER MISTREATMENT (EXTREME PRIORITY).
     • VERIFY REPORTED TERRITORIAL CHANGES near VOZDVIZHENKA (EXTREME PRIORITY).
     • GATHER INTELLIGENCE on the "SIVALKA VM-8" SYSTEM (HIGH PRIORITY).
     • VERIFY REPORT of BRITISH MERCENARY DEATH (MEDIUM PRIORITY).
     • MONITOR NIKOPOL and KRYVYI RIH DISTRICTS (HIGH PRIORITY).
     • ASSESS IMPLICATIONS of ZELENSKY'S ANNOUNCEMENT (MEDIUM PRIORITY).

The situation remains highly volatile and dynamic, with significant developments occurring rapidly. The confirmed attack on the Lipetsk Metallurgical Plant and the alleged Ukrainian attack on the IAEA convoy are MAJOR EVENTS requiring IMMEDIATE ATTENTION. The continued intense fighting, the potential for a new Russian military base in Libya, and the ongoing diplomatic maneuvering surrounding the Trump-Putin call all contribute to a complex and evolving situation.