Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 13, 2025, 06:08 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (05:38 UTC - 06:08 UTC, February 13)

Lipetsk Oblast Drone Attack Aftermath (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE)

• Casualty Reported (CONFIRMED): ASTRA reports that a worker at an aeration station was injured due to falling drone debris in Lipetsk Oblast. Power outages occurred but were reportedly resolved.
• Assessment: This confirms INJURIES resulting from the Ukrainian drone attack, though the severity is unclear. It underscores the risk to civilian infrastructure and personnel even when drones are intercepted.

European Support for Ukraine (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE)

• Joint Declaration (CONFIRMED): Foreign Ministers of France, UK, Spain, Italy, Poland, Germany, the EU, and Ukraine issued a joint declaration emphasizing:
  • Strong support for Ukraine's independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity.
  • Commitment to a lasting peace and security guarantees for Ukraine.
  • Importance of Euro-Atlantic security and strengthening collective defense.
  • Ukrainian and European participation in any negotiations.
• Military Aid (CONFIRMED):
  • Germany: ~100 IRIS-T air defense missiles.
  • Netherlands: 25 YPR armored vehicles for casualty transport.
  • Latvia: 42 armored personnel carriers.
  • Norway: Joins the drone coalition.
• Assessment: This is a VERY SIGNIFICANT development, demonstrating continued strong European commitment to Ukraine. The emphasis on security guarantees and participation in negotiations is particularly important. The military aid, especially the IRIS-T missiles, will bolster Ukrainian defenses.

Potential Russian Military Base in Libya (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE)

• Increased Flights (REPORTED): Operativnyi ZSU cites Le Monde reporting increased flights between Syria and Benghazi, Libya, by Cham Wings, a Syrian airline.
• Base Construction (REPORTED): Reconstruction of the Maaten es-Sarra airfield in southeastern Libya is reportedly underway, with frequent Il-76 flights suggesting a new Russian base.
• Assessment: This requires CAREFUL MONITORING. If confirmed, a new Russian base in Libya would have significant strategic implications, extending Russian influence in the region and potentially impacting the Ukraine conflict indirectly. This could represent a MAJOR GEOPOLITICAL SHIFT.

Trump-Putin Call Aftermath (REPORTED, RUSSIAN & UKRAINIAN SOURCES)

• 90-Minute Call (REPORTED): Operation Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny, citing The Times, reports a 90-minute call between Trump and Putin, causing "delight in Moscow and fear in Kyiv."
• Ukrainian Concerns (REPORTED): Ukrainian sources express concern that Trump plans to exclude Ukraine from peace talks.
• Assessment: This fuels existing anxieties about Trump's potential policy towards Ukraine. The reported length of the call and the contrasting reactions in Moscow and Kyiv are significant.

Balaklava Bay Partisan Activity (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE)

• Weaknesses Identified (REPORTED): RBC-Ukraine reports that partisans from the "ATESH" movement claim to have identified weaknesses in the Russian defense system of Balaklava Bay in occupied Crimea.
• Increased Defenses (REPORTED): Russians are reportedly installing new boom barriers and mining entry points.
• Assessment: This confirms ongoing partisan activity in occupied Crimea. The claimed identification of weaknesses in Russian defenses is potentially valuable intelligence, though it requires verification. The reported increase in Russian defensive measures suggests they are concerned about potential attacks.

U.S. Diplomatic Mission (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE)

• Kellogg's Trip (REPORTED): Operativnyi ZSU reports that Keith Kellogg, a special representative of President Trump, will visit Germany, Belgium, and Ukraine before February 22nd to discuss ending the war.
• Itinerary: Includes participation in the Munich Security Conference and visits to NATO and EU headquarters in Brussels.
• Assessment: This indicates active U.S. diplomatic engagement, albeit under the auspices of a potential future Trump administration. Kellogg's "tough diplomacy" approach is noteworthy.

Reported Drone Shootdowns (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE)

• 83 Drones (CONFIRMED): Dnevnik Desantnika repeats previous claims from Russian MOD, stating that air defenses destroyed 83 Ukrainian drones overnight, over various regions.
• Assessment: Continues to demonstrate large-scale drone warfare.

Ukrainian General Staff Maps (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE)

• Multiple Fronts (CONFIRMED): The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine released maps showing:
  • Kupyansk Direction: 8 repelled attacks near Kindrashivka, Petropavlivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Novoosinove, Pishchane, Lozova, and Zahryzove.
  • Lyman Direction: 9 attacks near Kopanky, Novomykhailivka, Novoliubivka, Yampolivka, and Kolodyazi.
  • Siversk Direction: 4 repelled assaults near Bilohorivka and Verkhnokamyanske.
  • Kramatorsk Direction: 7 clashes near Chasiv Yar and Vasylivka.
  • Toretsk Direction: 11 attacks near Toretsk and Shcherbynivka.
  • Pokrovsk Direction: 34 attacks repelled near Vodiane Druhe, Yelyzavetivka, Promin, Zvirove, Nadiivka, Uspeniivka, Andriivka, Oleksandrivka, Dachne, Zelene Pole, Ulakly, and Shevchenko.
  • Novopavlivsk Direction: 17 attacks near Kostyantynopil, Burlatske, and Rivnopil.
  • Huliaipole Direction: Airstrike on Kamyanske.
  • Orikhiv Direction: Repelled attacks near Shcherbaky and Kamyanske.
  • Kharkiv and Prydniprovsky Directions: No enemy active actions.
  • Kursk Direction: 18 attacks repelled, 527 artillery strikes, 19 air strikes (28 guided bombs).
• Assessment: These maps, while likely biased, confirm INTENSE FIGHTING across multiple fronts, particularly in the Pokrovsk, Kupyansk, Lyman, and Kursk directions. The high number of reported attacks and strikes indicates a VERY HIGH level of combat activity.

Updated Situation Summary

1. CONTINUED INTENSE FIGHTING ACROSS MULTIPLE FRONTS (EXTREME PRIORITY): The Ukrainian General Staff maps confirm intense fighting, particularly in the Pokrovsk, Kupyansk, Lyman, and Kursk directions. The reported numbers of attacks, strikes, and clashes indicate a VERY HIGH level of combat activity.
2. SIGNIFICANT EUROPEAN SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE (HIGH PRIORITY): The joint declaration and new military aid pledges demonstrate strong and continued European commitment.
3. POTENTIAL RUSSIAN MILITARY BASE IN LIBYA (MEDIUM PRIORITY): The reported activity in Libya requires careful monitoring due to its potential strategic implications.
4. TRUMP-PUTIN CALL AND U.S. DIPLOMACY (MEDIUM PRIORITY): The reported call and Kellogg's upcoming trip signal potential shifts in the diplomatic landscape.
5. PARTISAN ACTIVITY IN CRIMEA (MEDIUM PRIORITY): The reported identification of weaknesses in Russian defenses in Balaklava Bay is potentially valuable intelligence.
6. LIPETSK DRONE ATTACK AFTERMATH (CONFIRMED): Confirmed injury from the drone attack.
7. ONGOING WIDESPREAD DRONE WARFARE (EXTREME PRIORITY): Remains a dominant feature of the conflict.

Updated Recommendations

1. PRIORITIZE REINFORCEMENTS AND DEFENSES IN KEY HOTSPOTS (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Based on the Ukrainian General Staff maps and previous reports, immediately prioritize reinforcing Ukrainian defenses in the Pokrovsk, Kupyansk, Lyman, and Kursk directions.
   • Deploy additional troops, artillery, air defense systems, and anti-tank weapons to these areas.
   • Focus on protecting critical infrastructure and supply routes.

2. INTEGRATE NEW EUROPEAN MILITARY AID (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Rapidly integrate the newly pledged military aid, particularly the IRIS-T air defense missiles, into the Ukrainian defense system.
   • Ensure proper training and deployment of personnel to operate and maintain the new equipment.

3. MONITOR POTENTIAL RUSSIAN ACTIVITY IN LIBYA (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Increase intelligence gathering efforts to confirm or refute the reports of a new Russian military base in Libya.
   • Assess the potential strategic implications of such a development.

4. TRACK DIPLOMATIC DEVELOPMENTS (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Closely monitor Keith Kellogg's trip and any developments related to potential Trump-Putin interactions.
   • Assess the potential impact on Ukrainian interests and prepare for various diplomatic scenarios.

5. VERIFY AND EXPLOIT PARTISAN INTELLIGENCE (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Attempt to independently verify the claims of identified weaknesses in Russian defenses in Balaklava Bay.
   • If confirmed, develop plans to exploit these weaknesses through potential special operations or targeted strikes.

6. ADDRESS CIVILIAN IMPACT OF DRONE ATTACKS (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Continue efforts to improve drone detection and interception capabilities.
   • Provide medical care and assistance to civilians injured in drone attacks.

7. MAINTAIN PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other previous recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated. This includes:

   • INVESTIGATE MAGATE CONVOY ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY).
   • MAINTAIN MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE READINESS (EXTREME PRIORITY).
   • COUNTER RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACKS (HIGH PRIORITY).
   • COUNTER RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA (HIGH PRIORITY).
   • ADDRESS DAMAGE TO CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE (HIGH PRIORITY).

The situation remains highly volatile and dynamic, with intense fighting across multiple fronts, significant international developments, and ongoing drone warfare. The confirmed European support for Ukraine and the potential for a new Russian military base in Libya are major developments requiring close attention. The continued intense fighting and air threats remain the most immediate and pressing concerns.