Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 13, 2025, 05:38 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (05:08 UTC - 05:38 UTC, February 13)

Zaporizhzhia Oblast Strikes (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE)

• Extensive Russian Attacks (CONFIRMED): The Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration reported 441 strikes on 13 settlements within the region over the past 24 hours.
  • 10 Airstrikes: Targeted P'yatihatky, Huliaipole, Shcherbaky, Luhivske, Novodarivka, and Dolynka.
  • 296 Drone Attacks: Targeted Lobkove, P'yatihatky, Huliaipole, Shcherbaky, Novodanylivka, Novoandriivka, Bilohir'ya, Mala Tokmachka, Malynivka, Novodarivka, Olhivske, and Luhivske.
  • 4 MLRS Attacks: Targeted Mala Tokmachka, Novodanylivka, and Novodarivka.
  • 131 Artillery Strikes: Targeted Lobkove, P'yatihatky, Huliaipole, Shcherbakiv, Novoandriivka, Novodanylivka, Mala Tokmachka, Bilohir'ya, Luhivske, Malynivka, Novodarivka, and Olhivske.
  • Damage: 20 reports of damage to apartments and private houses. No civilian casualties reported.
  • Assessment: This confirms a VERY HIGH INTENSITY of Russian attacks in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, using a combination of airpower, drones, MLRS, and artillery. The widespread nature of the attacks suggests an attempt to disrupt Ukrainian defenses and potentially terrorize the civilian population. The lack of reported casualties is fortunate, but the damage to civilian infrastructure is significant.

Vremivka Direction Drone Strike (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE)

• FPV Drone Attack (CONFIRMED): "Voin DV" released a video showing Russian FPV drones targeting a Ukrainian dugout, causing a fire and possible ammunition detonation.
  • Assessment: This confirms continued Russian use of FPV drones as precision strike weapons. The potential detonation of ammunition suggests a successful strike against a Ukrainian position.

Russian Naval Activity in Korean Waters (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE)

• US Submarine in Busan (REPORTED): Rybar reports the USS Alexandria, a US nuclear-powered submarine, arrived in Busan, South Korea. Officially for resupply and bilateral cooperation, but perceived as a deterrent against North Korea.
  • North Korean Reaction (REPORTED): North Korea condemned the move, warning of potential armed conflict.
  • Assessment: While not directly related to Ukraine, this highlights increased global tensions. The deployment of a US nuclear-powered submarine, even without ballistic missiles, is a significant show of force. North Korea's reaction is predictable but adds to the overall atmosphere of instability.

MAGATE Convoy Attacked (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE)

• Ukrainian Attacks on Convoy (CONFIRMED): The Russian Ministry of Defense released video and a detailed timeline claiming Ukrainian forces attacked a convoy carrying MAGATE personnel near the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) on February 12th.
  • Attack Methods: Mortar fire, artillery fire, and FPV drones.
  • Damage: Damage to Russian vehicles providing security.
  • Disrupted Rotation: The planned rotation of MAGATE personnel was disrupted.
  • Assessment: This is a VERY SERIOUS INCIDENT. Targeting international personnel is a grave violation of international norms. The Russian account, while detailed, should be treated with caution. Independent verification is essential. The potential for a nuclear incident, either accidental or intentional, is increased by these attacks.

Widespread Drone Attacks on Russia (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCES)

• Multiple Regions Targeted (REPORTED): Russian sources (ASTRA, Archangel Spetsnaz) claim 83 Ukrainian drones were shot down over nine Russian regions overnight, including Belgorod, Kursk, Lipetsk, Tver, Bryansk, Kaluga, Smolensk, and Voronezh.
  • Targets: Primarily industrial and energy infrastructure.
  • Assessment: This confirms CONTINUED AND WIDESPREAD Ukrainian drone attacks deep inside Russian territory. The reported number of drones shot down is very high, but the exact number should be verified. The targeting of industrial and energy infrastructure is intended to disrupt the Russian war effort.

Belarus Drone Interception (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE)

• Drone Activity Near Gomel (REPORTED): ASTRA reports drone sightings and air defense activity near Gomel, Belarus.
  • Assessment: This suggests potential Ukrainian drone incursions into Belarusian airspace. Belarus's involvement in the conflict, even indirectly, could escalate tensions.

Ukrainian Forces Leaving Positions Near Bilohorivka (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE)

• Russian Pressure (REPORTED): TASS cites Andrei Marochko claiming Ukrainian forces are leaving positions near Bilohorivka, LNR, due to Russian pressure and ammunition shortages.
  • Assessment: This requires independent verification. If confirmed, it would indicate a localized Russian advance.

China Proposes Trump-Putin Summit (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE)

• Mediation Offer (REPORTED): Operativnyi ZSU reports WSJ sources claiming China proposed a summit between Trump and Putin to facilitate peace efforts.
  • Assessment: This suggests China is seeking a more active role in mediating the conflict. The inclusion of Trump, rather than Biden, is significant and potentially reflects China's assessment of the political landscape.

Ukrainian Military Losses (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES)

• High Casualty Figures (REPORTED): The Ukrainian General Staff and RBC-Ukraine report significant Russian losses over the past 24 hours, including 1250 personnel, 17 tanks, 23 armored fighting vehicles, 58 artillery systems, 2 MLRS, and 2 air defense systems.
  • Assessment: These figures are likely inflated for propaganda purposes. However, even if significantly lower, they suggest ongoing heavy fighting and attrition on both sides.

Lipetsk Oblast Drone Attack (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE)

• Drone Attack Repelled (CONFIRMED): Igor Artamonov (Lipetsk governor) confirms a drone attack on the region was repelled, with 12 drones intercepted.
  • Assessment: This confirms Ukrainian attempts to strike targets deep inside Russia.

Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Attacks (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE)

• Drone and Artillery Strikes (CONFIRMED): Serhiy Lysak (Dnipropetrovsk governor) reports drone and artillery attacks on the Marganets community and Nikopol, damaging a private enterprise, a funeral agency, 10 houses, 2 outbuildings, power lines, and a gas pipeline.
  • Air Defense Activity (CONFIRMED): 7 Ukrainian drones were shot down over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
  • Assessment: This confirms continued Russian attacks on civilian infrastructure in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The successful interception of 7 drones indicates effective Ukrainian air defense.

Air Raid Alerts (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES)

• Missile Threat (CONFIRMED): Air raid alerts were issued for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast due to a missile threat.
• Drone Threat (CONFIRMED): Air raid alerts were issued for Sumy due to a drone threat. Reconnaissance drones were active in the Dnipro area and Kharkiv oblast, with potential air defense action.
• Assessment: Active air threats.

Updated Situation Summary

1. EXTREME INTENSITY ATTACKS IN ZAPORIZHZHIA (EXTREME PRIORITY): The confirmed 441 strikes in Zaporizhzhia Oblast represent an EXTREMELY HIGH level of Russian aggression.
2. MAGATE CONVOY ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY): The confirmed attack on the MAGATE convoy is a VERY SERIOUS incident with potential international ramifications.
3. WIDESPREAD DRONE WARFARE CONTINUES (EXTREME PRIORITY): Both sides continue to utilize drones extensively, with Ukraine targeting deep inside Russia and Russia attacking various Ukrainian regions.
4. POTENTIAL RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR BILOHORIVKA (MEDIUM PRIORITY): The claimed Ukrainian withdrawal requires verification.
5. POTENTIAL DIPLOMATIC SHIFTS (MEDIUM PRIORITY): The reported Chinese proposal for a Trump-Putin summit and continued discussions about potential meetings between the two leaders suggest possible changes in the diplomatic landscape.
6. ONGOING AIR THREATS (EXTREME PRIORITY): The air threat warnings for multiple oblasts represent an IMMEDIATE DANGER and require constant monitoring and air defense readiness.

Updated Recommendations

1. INVESTIGATE MAGATE CONVOY ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Immediately demand an independent international investigation into the attack on the MAGATE convoy.
   • Coordinate with international organizations to gather evidence and determine responsibility.
   • Demand full accountability for the perpetrators.

2. REINFORCE AIR DEFENSES IN ZAPORIZHZHIA (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Deploy additional air defense assets to Zaporizhzhia Oblast to counter the high intensity of Russian attacks.
   • Prioritize protection of critical infrastructure and civilian populations.

3. MAINTAIN MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE READINESS (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Maintain maximum alert status for air defense systems across Ukraine, particularly in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, and Sumy Oblasts.
   • Continuously monitor for incoming threats and respond promptly.

4. COUNTER RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACKS (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Continue efforts to improve drone detection and interception capabilities.
   • Investigate the possibility of disrupting Russian drone supply chains.

5. VERIFY BILOHORIVKA WITHDRAWAL (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Use independent intelligence sources to confirm or refute the reported Ukrainian withdrawal from positions near Bilohorivka.

6. MONITOR POTENTIAL DIPLOMATIC SHIFTS (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Track any developments regarding potential meetings between Trump and Putin or Chinese mediation efforts.
   • Assess the potential impact on the conflict and Ukrainian interests.

7. COUNTER RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Continue to address Russian propaganda claims, particularly regarding alleged Ukrainian attacks on civilians and international personnel.

8. ADDRESS DAMAGE TO CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Provide assistance to civilians affected by Russian attacks, including shelter, medical care, and repair of damaged infrastructure.

9. MAINTAIN PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other previous recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation remains highly volatile, with intense fighting, widespread drone warfare, and potential diplomatic shifts. The attack on the MAGATE convoy and the continued air threats are the most immediate and pressing concerns.