Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 13, 2025, 05:08 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (04:38 UTC - 05:08 UTC, February 13)

Gorlovka Civilian Injured (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE)

Shelling of Zheleznaya Balka (CONFIRMED): The head of the Gorlovka city district, Ivan Prikhodko, reported that a civilian resident of Gorlovka was wounded due to shelling by Ukrainian forces in the settlement of Zheleznaya Balka.
- Assessment: This confirms continued hostilities in the Gorlovka area and the ongoing risk to civilians. It highlights a violation of the principles of distinction and proportionality in warfare, assuming the target was not a valid military objective.

Trump-Putin Meeting Discussion (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE)

Key Talking Points (REPORTED): Following a reported conversation between the presidents of Russia and the United States, Donald Trump reportedly stated:
- A first meeting with Putin will take place in Saudi Arabia.
- Ukraine's membership in NATO is unrealistic and "impractical."
- The US will continue to provide assistance to Ukraine, but "under guarantees."
- Assessment: These statements indicate a potential shift in US policy towards Ukraine under a hypothetical Trump administration. The choice of Saudi Arabia as a meeting location signifies a desire for a neutral venue. The comments on NATO membership and aid with "guarantees" suggest a more transactional approach to supporting Ukraine. It's crucial to understand that these are reported statements and may not reflect actual US policy. This is a long-term strategic consideration, not an immediate battlefield change.

Rybar's Morning Summary (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE)

Key Points (REPORTED): Rybar's morning summary highlights the following:
- Reactions to the reported Trump-Putin and Trump-Zelensky phone calls, with perceived impact on morale on both sides of the front.
- Continued drone attacks on both sides, including Lipetsk, Rostov, Bryansk, and Crimea. Reports of explosions near Gomel, Belarus.
- Russian strikes on Ukrainian military-industrial targets in multiple regions.
- Russian advances west of Makiivka (acknowledged by Ukraine) and near Andreevka.
- Ukrainian shelling of MAGATE personnel near the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP).
- Ukrainian shelling of civilians in Novaya Kakhovka and Belgorod Oblast.
- Ukrainian shelling of civilians in Donetsk People's Republic (DPR), resulting in casualties.
- Assessment: This provides a broad overview of the military situation from a pro-Russian perspective. It emphasizes Russian advances and Ukrainian attacks on civilians and international personnel. Independent verification is necessary for many of these claims.

BM-21 "Grad" Strike (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE)

MLRS Attack (CONFIRMED): The Russian Ministry of Defense released a video showing BM-21 "Grad" multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) of the "West" grouping striking platoon strongholds and infantry concentrations of Ukrainian forces in the Luhansk People's Republic (LNR).
- Assessment: This confirms continued Russian use of MLRS in the LNR, targeting Ukrainian positions. The use of MLRS is inherently indiscriminate, posing a risk to civilians.

EMC Testing Chamber (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE)

Anechoic Chamber (REPORTED): A photo shows an electromagnetic compatibility (EMC) testing chamber, likely used to test military equipment.
- Assessment: This indicates ongoing efforts to ensure the reliability and security of Russian military electronic equipment against interference and electromagnetic attacks.

Drone Purchase for VDV (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE)

Crowdfunding for Drones (REPORTED): A video shows a Russian soldier thanking the "Archangel Spetsnaz" channel and its subscribers for purchasing drones for VDV (airborne) troops, specifically for use in the Chasov Yar area.
- Assessment: This highlights the reliance on crowdfunding and public support for supplying Russian troops with essential equipment, particularly drones. It also indicates a focus on operations in the Chasov Yar area.

Ukrainian Drone Interception Claims (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN AND RUSSIAN SOURCES):

Multiple sources report on drone interceptions.
Assessment: Ongoing conflict and use of drones.

Russian Soldier Interview (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE)

Propaganda Piece (REPORTED): A video features a Russian soldier (callsign "Staryi") condemning alleged Ukrainian use of civilians as shields and praising the D-30 howitzer.
- Assessment: This is primarily a propaganda piece aimed at bolstering Russian morale and demonizing Ukrainian forces. It also provides some insight into Russian artillery tactics.

Air Alert for Sumy Oblast.

Air Raid Alert, with Drone Threat.
Assessment: High-priority threat.

Updated Situation Summary

CONTINUED MASSIVE DRONE WARFARE (EXTREME PRIORITY): Both sides continue to utilize large numbers of drones.
CONFIRMED LIPETSK OBLAST ATTACK (HIGH PRIORITY): Ukrainian drones targeted industrial areas in Lipetsk Oblast.
RUSSIAN NAVAL SHIFT PERSISTS (HIGH PRIORITY): The absence of Russian warships in the Black and Azov Seas, coupled with a presence in the Mediterranean.
POTENTIAL RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR MAKIIVKA (MEDIUM PRIORITY): A Russian military expert claims a localized advance near Makiivka.
LONG-TERM NATO THREAT ASSESSMENT (MEDIUM PRIORITY): Danish intelligence warns of a potential Russian war with NATO within 5 years.
GORLOVKA CIVILIAN INJURED (HIGH PRIORITY): Confirmed shelling in the Gorlovka area, resulting in a civilian casualty.
POTENTIAL US POLICY SHIFT (MEDIUM PRIORITY): Reported statements by Donald Trump suggest a possible change in US policy towards Ukraine under a hypothetical Trump administration.
CONTINUED RUSSIAN ARTILLERY STRIKES (HIGH PRIORITY): Confirmed use of BM-21 "Grad" MLRS in the LNR.
ONGOING AIR THREAT (EXTREME PRIORITY): The air threat warnings for Sumy oblasts represent an IMMEDIATE DANGER and require constant monitoring and air defense readiness.

Updated Recommendations

MAINTAIN INTENSE AIR DEFENSE READINESS (EXTREME PRIORITY):
- Continue to prioritize air defense readiness across all threatened regions.
- Analyze the discrepancy in reported drone numbers.
INVESTIGATE LIPETSK ATTACK (HIGH PRIORITY):
- Gather intelligence on the damage in Lipetsk Oblast.
- Assess the impact on Russian industrial capacity.
MONITOR RUSSIAN NAVAL MOVEMENTS (HIGH PRIORITY):
- Continue to track Russian naval activity.
- Assess the implications of the absence of warships in the Black and Azov Seas.
VERIFY MAKIIVKA ADVANCE (MEDIUM PRIORITY):
- Independently verify the claimed Russian advance.
ASSESS LONG-TERM NATO THREAT (MEDIUM PRIORITY):
- Analyze the Danish intelligence report.
INVESTIGATE GORLOVKA SHELLING (HIGH PRIORITY):
- Gather evidence to determine the circumstances of the shelling in Zheleznaya Balka and assess whether a valid military objective was targeted.
MONITOR POTENTIAL US POLICY SHIFT (MEDIUM PRIORITY):
- Analyze the reported statements by Donald Trump and assess their potential implications for long-term support for Ukraine.
COUNTER RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA (MEDIUM PRIORITY):
- Develop counter-narratives to address Russian propaganda claims, particularly regarding alleged Ukrainian attacks on civilians.
ADDRESS RUSSIAN CROWDFUNDING (MEDIUM PRIORITY):
- Investigate the extent of Russian crowdfunding for military equipment and consider potential measures to disrupt these funding streams.
MAINTAIN PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other previous recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.
MAINTAIN MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE READINESS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
- Maintain maximum alert status for air defense systems across Ukraine, particularly in Sumy Oblast.
- Continuously monitor for incoming threats and respond promptly.

The situation remains dynamic, with continued drone warfare, artillery strikes, and potential long-term strategic shifts. The ongoing air threat and the civilian casualty in Gorlovka require immediate attention.

Situation Report