Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 13, 2025, 04:38 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (04:08 UTC - 04:38 UTC, February 13)

Confirmed: Massive Drone Attack on Ukraine, 83 Drones (CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES)

• Multiple sources confirm the Russian Ministry of Defense's claim of 83 Ukrainian drones shot down overnight, across nine regions.
  • Belgorod Oblast: 37 drones.
  • Kursk and Lipetsk Oblasts: 12 drones each.
  • Tver Oblast: 9 drones.
  • Bryansk, Kaluga, Smolensk, and Voronezh Oblasts: 3 drones each.
  • Rostov Oblast: 1 drone.
  • Assessment: This corroborates the Ukrainian General Staff's earlier report of a massive drone attack, although the numbers reported by each side differ. This represents a major escalation in the drone war, with widespread attacks targeting multiple regions. The discrepancy in reported drone numbers (Ukraine reported 61 downed, Russia reports 83) needs further clarification. It's possible Russia is counting drones that were "locationally lost" by Ukraine as "shot down."

Lipetsk Oblast Attack (CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES)

• Multiple Reports (CONFIRMED): Multiple sources confirm a drone attack on Lipetsk Oblast, targeting industrial areas.
  • Reports mention the Novolipetsk Metallurgical Combine and possibly a tractor factory as potential targets.
  • An employee at the Lipetsk aeration station was reportedly injured by drone debris.
  • Damage to two private residences was also reported.
  • Power outages were reported in Lipetsk during the attack, but later restored.
  • Assessment: This confirms a significant Ukrainian drone attack targeting Russian industrial infrastructure. The injury of a civilian and damage to residential areas underscores the risk of collateral damage.

Naval Situation (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES)

• Absence of Russian Ships in Black and Azov Seas (CONFIRMED): The Ukrainian Navy and General Staff report the absence of Russian warships and missile carriers in the Black and Azov Seas.
  • Mediterranean Presence: 4 Russian warships and 3 "Kalibr" missile carriers (with a total of 26 missiles) are present in the Mediterranean Sea.
  • Kerch Strait Transit: Two Russian ships transited to the Black Sea, and four to the Azov Sea.
  • Assessment: This confirms a continued shift in Russian naval posture, with a concentration of forces in the Mediterranean. The absence of warships in the Black and Azov Seas could be due to various factors, including strategic repositioning, maintenance, or heightened threat assessment.

Russian Advance near Makiivka (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE)

• Claim of Control over Tekuch River Bank (REPORTED): A Russian military expert claims that Russian forces have taken control of approximately 3 km of the bank of the Tekuch River near Makiivka in the Luhansk People's Republic (LNR).
  • Assessment: Requires independent verification. If confirmed, this represents a localized Russian advance.

Danish Intelligence Report (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE)

• Potential Russian War with NATO (REPORTED): The Danish Defense Intelligence Service (DDIS) reportedly assesses that Russia could be ready for war with NATO within the next 5 years.
  • The report highlights Russia's increasing military capabilities and the influence of support from China, North Korea, and Iran.
  • Assessment: This is a significant warning from a NATO intelligence agency. It underscores the long-term threat posed by Russia's military buildup and its growing ties with other authoritarian states.

Irrelevant or Low-Impact Developments

• Valentine's Day Poll (REPORTED, TASS): Less than half of Russians consider Valentine's Day a holiday. (No direct military impact).
• Rybar's Request for Donations.

Updated Situation Summary

1. MASSIVE DRONE WARFARE CONTINUES (EXTREME PRIORITY): Both sides continue to utilize large numbers of drones, with confirmed attacks across multiple regions of both Ukraine and Russia. Lipetsk, in particular, was targeted.
2. CONFIRMED LIPETSK OBLAST ATTACK (HIGH PRIORITY): Ukrainian drones targeted industrial areas in Lipetsk Oblast, causing damage and at least one civilian injury.
3. RUSSIAN NAVAL SHIFT PERSISTS (HIGH PRIORITY): The absence of Russian warships in the Black and Azov Seas, coupled with a presence in the Mediterranean, indicates a continued strategic shift.
4. POTENTIAL RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR MAKIIVKA (MEDIUM PRIORITY): A Russian military expert claims a localized advance near Makiivka, which requires independent verification.
5. LONG-TERM NATO THREAT ASSESSMENT (MEDIUM PRIORITY): Danish intelligence warns of a potential Russian war with NATO within 5 years, highlighting the long-term strategic implications.
6. The situation is a continuation of the last 6 hours.

Updated Recommendations

1. MAINTAIN INTENSE AIR DEFENSE READINESS (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Continue to prioritize air defense readiness across all threatened regions, particularly in areas targeted by recent drone attacks.
   • Analyze the discrepancy in reported drone numbers between Ukrainian and Russian sources.

2. INVESTIGATE LIPETSK ATTACK (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Gather further intelligence on the extent of the damage to industrial facilities in Lipetsk Oblast.
   • Assess the potential impact on Russian industrial capacity.

3. MONITOR RUSSIAN NAVAL MOVEMENTS (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Continue to track Russian naval activity, particularly in the Mediterranean Sea.
   • Assess the potential implications of the absence of warships in the Black and Azov Seas.

4. VERIFY MAKIIVKA ADVANCE (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Independently verify the claimed Russian advance near Makiivka.

5. ASSESS LONG-TERM NATO THREAT (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Analyze the Danish intelligence report and consider its implications for long-term defense planning.

6. MAINTAIN PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other previous recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated. The situation is a continuation of the last 6 hours, with no significant change on the ground.