Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 13, 2025, 01:08 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (00:38 UTC - 01:08 UTC, February 13)

Expanded Drone Attack Threat in Lipetsk Oblast, Russia (NEW, EXTREME PRIORITY)

• Gryazi and Gryazinsky District Added to Red Alert (CONFIRMED): Igor Artamonov (Governor of Lipetsk Oblast) announced a "red level" UAV attack threat for the CITY OF GRYAZI and GRYAZINSKY DISTRICT (01:06 UTC). This is IN ADDITION to the existing red alert for Lipetsk and Lipetsk Municipal District.

  • Assessment: The threat area is EXPANDING, indicating a wider area of potential drone activity. This further reinforces the possibilities outlined previously: long-range Ukrainian capability, internal Russian sabotage, or a false flag operation. The consistent warnings from the Governor suggest a credible and imminent threat.

• Warning Against Sharing Images/Videos (CONFIRMED): Artamonov (00:56 UTC) specifically requested residents NOT to publish or share photos/videos of air defense operations or drone activity. He stated this helps the enemy adjust targeting.

  • Assessment: This is a standard operational security (OPSEC) measure, but also reveals that Russian authorities are CONCERNED ABOUT UKRAINIAN INTELLIGENCE GATHERING. It suggests a level of sophistication in Ukrainian drone operations and targeting.

ISW Report: Claimed Ukrainian Advances Near Toretsk and in Kursk Oblast (REPORTED, REQUIRES CAREFUL ASSESSMENT)

• ISW Report (01:00 UTC, РБК-Україна): The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) released a report (dated February 13) claiming:
  • Ukrainian forces advanced near Toretsk.
  • Ukrainian forces advanced in Kursk Oblast, southeast of Sudzha.
  • Russian forces advanced near Pokrovsk, Borova, Siversk, Kurakhove, Toretsk, and in Kursk Oblast west of Sudzha.
  • Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT report, but requires CAREFUL ASSESSMENT. ISW reports are generally reliable, but:
    • The claims of UKRAINIAN ADVANCES near Toretsk and INSIDE KURSK OBLAST are BOLD and require INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION. These would represent significant shifts in the front lines.
    • The claims of Russian advances in multiple locations align with previous reports and ongoing fighting, but also require verification.
    • The multiple images from the source confirm that the ISW report is focused on several battle fronts.
    • The claim about Ukrainian advancements in Kursk near Sudzha is a DIRECT CONTRADICTION with claims from Russian sources, which claim retaking of the city. This contradiction must be resolved.

Updated Drone Movements (CONFIRMED)

• Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (01:01 UTC):
  • Drone in Chernihiv Oblast, heading north.
  • Drone in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, heading south.
  • Assessment: The shift to a NORTHWARD movement in Chernihiv MAY indicate a return to base or a change in target. The SOUTHWARD movement in Dnipropetrovsk requires continued monitoring.

Zaporizhzhia Air Raid Alert Lifted (CONFIRMED)

• Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration (01:02 UTC): Announced the end of the air raid alert for Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
  • Assessment: This indicates a temporary reduction in the immediate threat, but vigilance remains necessary.

Captured Equipment (RUSSIAN SOURCE, PROPAGANDA)

• Colonelcassad: (01:03 UTC) Several images, including one of captured equipment from 155th Detached Marine Brigade.
  • Assessment: This is used for propaganda purposes, but the equipment shows some insight into the logistics and weaponry of the Ukranian army.

Irrelevant Data

• Reports of a scam in the game Roblox (01:00 UTC).
• Reports on new training aircraft for the Russian Air Force (01:02 UTC)

Updated Situation Summary

• EXPANDING DRONE ATTACK THREAT IN LIPETSK OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY): The threat has expanded to include Gryazi and Gryazinsky District, reinforcing the serious and unusual nature of this development.
• CLAIMED UKRAINIAN ADVANCES (HIGH PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): The ISW report claiming Ukrainian advances near Toretsk and inside Kursk Oblast is significant, but requires independent confirmation. This is a potential MAJOR DEVELOPMENT, but also potentially disinformation.
• CONTINUED AND WIDESPREAD DRONE ACTIVITY (HIGH PRIORITY): Drone activity continues, though with some shifts in direction.
• GOMEL, BELARUS, DRONE ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY): Remains unchanged.
• NOVOPAVLOVSK DIRECTION (HIGH PRIORITY): Remains unchanged.
• TRUMP COMMENTS (POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT): Remains unchanged.
• ENGELS AIRBASE ATTACK (CONFIRMED): Remains unchanged.
• Allegations of Torture of Ukrainian POWs (REPORTED): Remains unchanged.

Updated Recommendations

1. INVESTIGATE EXPANDED LIPETSK DRONE THREAT (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • All previous recommendations regarding the Lipetsk threat remain in effect.
   • Expand intelligence gathering to cover Gryazi and Gryazinsky District.
   • Determine if this expansion represents a larger number of drones, a wider area of origin, or a change in targeting strategy.

2. VERIFY ISW REPORT OF UKRAINIAN ADVANCES (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy all available intelligence assets to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the claimed Ukrainian advances near Toretsk and in Kursk Oblast (southeast of Sudzha).
   • Cross-reference ISW claims with other intelligence sources, including satellite imagery, signal intelligence, and human intelligence.
   • Pay particular attention to the Kursk Oblast claim, given the conflicting reports from Russian sources.

3. MONITOR DRONE MOVEMENTS (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Track the drone reported moving north in Chernihiv Oblast. Determine if this represents a return to base or a change in target.
   • Continue to monitor the drone moving south in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

4. MAINTAIN AIR DEFENSE READINESS (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • All previous recommendations regarding air defense readiness remain in effect. The expanding threat in Lipetsk Oblast INCREASES the need for high alert levels.

5. COUNTER RUSSIAN DISINFORMATION AND PROPAGANDA (ONGOING):

   • Continue all previous efforts to counter Russian disinformation.

6. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES). The situation continues to deteriorate, with the expanding drone threat in Russia and the potentially significant (but unconfirmed) claims of Ukrainian advances. The ongoing drone attacks within Ukraine remain a critical priority. The need for verification of conflicting claims remains paramount.