Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 13, 2025, 00:38 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (00:08 UTC - 00:38 UTC, February 13)

Lipetsk Oblast Air Alert and Drone Attack Threat (NEW, HIGH PRIORITY)

• Air Danger Alert (CONFIRMED): Igor Artamonov (Governor of Lipetsk Oblast, Russia) announced a "yellow level" air danger alert for the ENTIRE Lipetsk Oblast (00:13 UTC). This was subsequently upgraded to a "RED LEVEL" UAV attack threat specifically for the CITY OF LIPETSK and LIPETSK MUNICIPAL DISTRICT (00:25 UTC). Residents were advised to stay indoors, away from windows, or seek shelter in buildings, parking garages, or underground passages.
  • Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. Lipetsk Oblast is EAST of Ukraine and RELATIVELY FAR from the front lines. A drone attack threat in this region indicates either:
    • Long-Range Ukrainian Drone Capability: Ukraine has developed or acquired drones capable of reaching targets deep inside Russian territory.
    • Internal Russian Sabotage: The threat originates from within Russia, potentially from anti-government groups.
    • False Flag Operation: Russia is staging a false threat to justify further escalation or mobilization.
  • The rapid escalation from "yellow" to "red" alert suggests a HIGH LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE in the imminent threat. This requires IMMEDIATE INVESTIGATION.

Continued Drone Activity in Ukraine (CONFIRMED, ONGOING)

• Drone Movements (CONFIRMED, Николаевский Ванёк):

  • 00:18 UTC:
    • 2 drones circling in the north of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
    • 2 drones south of Pavlohrad, heading west.
    • 1 drone still circling north of Pryluky.
  • Assessment: This confirms the CONTINUED PRESENCE of drones in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with a westward movement suggesting potential targets further west. The persistent drone near Pryluky maintains a threat to that area.

• Geran Drone Attacks in Odesa (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

• "Operatsiya Z" (00:32 UTC) reports that "Geran" drones are attacking Odesa ports and other targets in Ukraine. Claims:

  • Over 50 drones in the air.
  • Main target is the port infrastructure in Odesa and Odesa region.
  • Up to 10 strikes reported in Reni port.
  • Explosions reported in Kirovohrad and Dnipropetrovsk regions, and near Kyiv and Kharkiv.

• Assessment: This source is NOTORIOUSLY UNRELIABLE, but the claim of "over 50 drones" is a MAJOR ESCALATION, if true. The focus on port infrastructure aligns with previous Russian efforts to disrupt Ukrainian grain exports. The reported explosions in multiple regions corroborate the earlier reports of widespread drone activity. The claim of "up to 10 strikes" in RENI PORT (on the Danube, near the Romanian border) is PARTICULARLY CONCERNING due to its proximity to a NATO member.

Russian Drone Strike in Polohy Direction (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE)

• "Voin DV" (00:25 UTC): Provides video footage claiming to show UAV operators of the 35th Army, "Vostok" group, targeting concentrations of Ukrainian infantry in the Polohy direction.
  • Assessment: This confirms the continued use of drones for targeting Ukrainian forces. The Polohy direction is in ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST, a KEY FRONT LINE AREA. This reinforces the ongoing ground combat activity in this region. The claim is not verified independently.

Ukrainian Soldier Claims Bribery to Avoid Front Line (RUSSIAN SOURCE, PROPAGANDA)

• TASS (00:35 UTC): Captured Ukrainian soldier Vladimir Volodarsky, claimed that it is possible to avoid going to the front lines for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. He reported that it costs $15,000.
• Assessment: This is standard RUSSIAN DISINFORMATION. While corruption undoubtedly exists within the Ukrainian military (and any large organization), the claim of a fixed price to avoid deployment is HIGHLY DUBIOUS. The purpose of this report is to DEMORALIZE UKRAINIAN TROOPS and UNDERMINE PUBLIC TRUST in the military leadership.

Irrelevant Data

• Reports of tax officer arrest (00:19 UTC).

Updated Situation Summary

• LIPETSK OBLAST DRONE ATTACK THREAT (HIGH PRIORITY): A "red level" UAV attack threat in Lipetsk Oblast, Russia, represents a SIGNIFICANT AND UNEXPECTED DEVELOPMENT, requiring immediate investigation.
• CONTINUED AND WIDESPREAD DRONE ACTIVITY (HIGH PRIORITY): Drone attacks continue across multiple Ukrainian regions, with a reported major attack on Odesa port infrastructure. The claim of "over 50 drones" is a MAJOR ESCALATION, if true.
• GOMEL, BELARUS, DRONE ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY): Remains unchanged.
• NOVOPAVLOVSK DIRECTION (HIGH PRIORITY): Remains unchanged.
• TRUMP COMMENTS (POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT): Remains unchanged.

Updated Recommendations

1. INVESTIGATE LIPETSK DRONE THREAT (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Gather all available intelligence on the reported drone threat in Lipetsk Oblast.
   • Determine the origin and type of drones involved.
   • Assess the credibility of the threat and the potential for a false flag operation.
   • Monitor for any further developments or actual drone attacks in the region.
   • Alert Ukrainian Air Defenses.
   • Communicate with allies.

2. MAINTAIN AND REINFORCE AIR DEFENSE READINESS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Maintain a MAXIMUM LEVEL OF ALERT across ALL REGIONS experiencing drone activity, particularly ODESA, DNIPROPETROVSK, and areas around KYIV and KHARKIV.
   • Prioritize the protection of critical infrastructure, especially PORT FACILITIES and ENERGY GRIDS.
   • Deploy additional air defense assets to areas with high drone concentrations.
   • Coordinate air defense efforts with neighboring countries, particularly ROMANIA given the reported attacks near Reni.

3. ADDRESS REPORTED ATTACK ON RENI (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Gather intelligence on the reported drone strikes on Reni port.
   • Assess the extent of damage and any impact on shipping.
   • Communicate with Romanian authorities regarding the incident and potential cross-border implications.

4. COUNTER RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA (ONGOING):

   • Continue to actively counter Russian disinformation about bribery and corruption within the Ukrainian military.

5. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES). The situation remains extremely dangerous and volatile. The new threat in Lipetsk Oblast adds a significant layer of uncertainty and potential escalation. The ongoing drone attacks across Ukraine remain a critical priority. The attack on Gomel remains a top priority.