Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 12, 2025, 23:08 UTC

Changes Since 22:38 UTC (Highest Priority)

1. UPDATED DRONE ACTIVITY (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN/RUSSIAN SOURCES, HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Reports drone activity in Sumy, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Poltava, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Kirovohrad, and Dnipropetrovsk regions, with various courses.
   • Nikolaevskiy Vanyok: Reports that the Odesa region is currently clear of drones. 9 drones remain near Yelanets, with some turning south. 3 drones near Poltava. 1 drone near Samar. 2 drones moving from Poltava to Dnipropetrovsk. 4 drones approaching Izyum. 2 drones in the north of Poltava, heading west. 1 drone north of Cherkasy. 1 drone west of Sumy. 1 drone over Pryluki.
   • Assessment: Confirms CONTINUED, WIDESPREAD DRONE ACTIVITY across numerous regions of Ukraine. The activity is LESS CONCENTRATED than previously reported, with drones dispersed across multiple regions. The threat to the RENI AND IZMAIL AREAS APPEARS TO HAVE DECREASED.

2. EUROPEAN MINISTERS REITERATE SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE, DEMAND FOR PARTICIPATION IN NEGOTIATIONS (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN/RUSSIAN SOURCES, HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Оперативний ЗСУ reiterates the joint statement from the foreign ministers of Ukraine, France, the UK, Spain, Italy, Poland, Germany, and the EU, emphasizing their commitment to Ukraine's independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity, and their demand for participation in negotiations.
   • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны provides a similar report, framing it as "Europe frightened and demands participation from Trump in negotiations."
   • Assessment: This confirms the CONTINUED EUROPEAN PUSHBACK against the US-brokered negotiation process. The OPERATIVNY ZSU report highlights European solidarity with Ukraine. The OPERATSIYA Z report, consistent with a Russian perspective, attempts to portray Europe as fearful and subservient to the US, highlighting the existing divisions among Western allies.

3. RUSSIAN CLAIM OF TEENAGE SOLDIERS IN UKRAINIAN ARMY (CLAIMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Colonelcassad presents a video of a captured Ukrainian soldier, Petr Polinkevich, claiming to have seen 16-year-old teenagers serving in his brigade. He describes them as being from orphanages and afraid. He also advises his comrades to surrender.
   • Assessment: This is LIKELY PROPAGANDA, aimed at demoralizing Ukrainian forces and portraying the Ukrainian army as desperate and unethical. The claim of underage soldiers requires INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION. The video of the captured soldier is consistent with Russian psychological operations tactics. The captured soldier provides details on the battle that resulted in his surrender, highlighting low morale and providing details on casualties and weaponry.

4. UKRAINIAN SOLDIER EXPRESSES FRUSTRATION WITH MOBILIZATION (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, LOW PRIORITY):

   • Шеф Hayabusa reports on feelings of frustration regarding the mobilization process.
   • Assessment: This suggests a dissatisfaction.

5. RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA REGARDING ZAPORIZHZHIA (CLAIMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, LOW PRIORITY):

• Colonelcassad presents a video regarding the "integration" of the Zaporizhzhia region.
• Assessment: This is propaganda, attempting to legitimize their occupation.

Updated Situation Summary

• ATTACK ON IAEA CONVOY (EXTREME PRIORITY): The reported Ukrainian attack on the IAEA convoy is a MAJOR ESCALATION with potentially SEVERE CONSEQUENCES for nuclear safety and international relations. URGENT INVESTIGATION is required.
• EUROPEAN PUSHBACK AGAINST US NEGOTIATIONS (HIGH PRIORITY): European ministers demanding participation in negotiations creates a MAJOR CHALLENGE to the US-brokered process and INCREASES TENSIONS among Western allies. This remains a SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.
• CONTINUED AND DISPERSED DRONE THREAT (HIGH PRIORITY): Widespread drone activity continues across Ukraine, but the threat appears LESS CONCENTRATED than previously reported, with drones dispersed across multiple regions.
• NEW AIR DEFENSE SYSTEM (MEDIUM PRIORITY): The deployment of the "Gravehawk" system enhances Ukrainian short-range air defense capabilities.
• US POLICY SHIFT TOWARDS FORCED UKRAINIAN CONCESSIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY): This continues.
• TRUMP-PUTIN MEETING IN SAUDI ARABIA CONFIRMED (EXTREME PRIORITY): This will likely be the place that a peace plan is forced upon Ukraine.

Updated Recommendations

1. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): The highest priority remains investigating the IAEA convoy attack, addressing the European pushback on negotiations, and monitoring the dispersed drone threat. The Russian claim of underage soldiers in the Ukrainian army, while likely propaganda, should be investigated to ensure compliance with international law.

2. MAINTAIN HIGH AIR DEFENSE READINESS (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Maintain a HIGH LEVEL OF ALERT across ALL REGIONS experiencing drone activity.
   • Continuously monitor drone movements and adjust deployments accordingly.
   • Prioritize the protection of critical infrastructure.

3. INVESTIGATE RUSSIAN CLAIM OF UNDERAGE SOLDIERS (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Gather information to verify or refute the claim of 16-year-old soldiers in the Ukrainian army.
   • If confirmed, take immediate action to remove underage soldiers from combat roles and ensure compliance with international law.
   • Prepare a response to counter the Russian propaganda narrative.

4. GATHER INTELLIGENCE ON RUSSIAN PSYCHOLOGICAL OPERATIONS (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

• Collect and analyze Russian propaganda messages related to the conflict.
• Identify the target audiences and the intended effects of these messages.
• Develop counter-narratives and communication strategies to mitigate the impact of Russian propaganda.