Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 12, 2025, 22:38 UTC

Changes Since 22:08 UTC (Highest Priority)

1. CONFIRMED DRONE ATTACK ON ZAPORIZHZHIA NPP IAEA ROTATION (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCES, EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Colonelcassad and Воин DV report that Ukrainian forces attacked an IAEA observer rotation convoy heading to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). The attack reportedly involved mortars, artillery, and FPV drones (2 mortar strikes, 5 artillery strikes, and 4 FPV drone strikes). The rotation was reportedly aborted. Colonelcassad suggests the new IAEA team was "more realistic" and prepared to report Ukrainian violations. Воин DV provides a video purportedly showing the attack.
   • Assessment: This is an EXTREMELY SERIOUS INCIDENT. Attacking an IAEA convoy is a MAJOR ESCALATION and a DIRECT THREAT TO NUCLEAR SAFETY. The claim that Ukraine targeted the convoy because the new IAEA team was "more realistic" needs IMMEDIATE INVESTIGATION. The video provided by Воин DV should be analyzed for authenticity and to determine the nature of the attack. This incident SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES TENSIONS and could lead to international condemnation of Ukraine.

2. CONFIRMED DRONE SHOOTDOWN OVER GOMEL, BELARUS (CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES, HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Шеф Hayabusa reports a UAV shot down over Gomel, Belarus, with a video purportedly showing falling lights (possibly flares or debris). Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны confirms reports of explosions and falling debris near Gomel.
   • Assessment: This confirms INCREASED DRONE ACTIVITY and potential AIR DEFENSE ENGAGEMENTS over Belarus. The falling lights in the video require analysis to determine their nature (flares, debris, etc.). This incident further expands the geographical scope of the conflict and raises questions about Belarusian involvement.

3. EUROPEAN MINISTERS DEMAND PARTICIPATION IN NEGOTIATIONS (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, HIGH PRIORITY):

   • РБК-Україна reports a joint statement from the foreign ministers of Ukraine, France, the UK, Spain, Italy, Poland, Germany, and the EU following a meeting in Paris. They express readiness to strengthen support for Ukraine and demand European participation in any future negotiations to end the war. They expect to discuss the path forward "together with American allies." They insist on "strong" security guarantees for Ukraine and assert that a "fair and lasting peace" is a prerequisite for Euro-Atlantic security.
   • Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT and a DIRECT CHALLENGE to the US-brokered negotiation process that is excluding European participation. It signals GROWING EUROPEAN DISSATISFACTION with the US approach and a determination to assert their influence. This could complicate the negotiation process and create further divisions among Western allies.

4. NEW "GRAVEHAWK" AIR DEFENSE SYSTEM DEPLOYED (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Шеф Hayabusa reports the deployment of the "Gravehawk" air defense system in Ukraine, developed by the UK. The system is containerized, mobile, and uses modified R-73 air-to-air missiles. Two systems are reportedly already operational, with 15 more to be delivered this year. Denmark is covering half the cost.
   • Assessment: This represents a SIGNIFICANT BOOST to Ukrainian SHORT-RANGE AIR DEFENSE capabilities, specifically targeting drones and cruise missiles. The rapid development and deployment (18 months) demonstrate Western efforts to quickly address Ukrainian needs. The use of existing R-73 missiles is a cost-effective solution.

5. UPDATED DRONE ACTIVITY (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN/RUSSIAN SOURCES, HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Reports drone activity in Sumy, Chernihiv, Poltava, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, and Odesa regions, with various courses. An air alert has been issued for the Kyiv region (excluding the capital).
   • AV БогомаZ: Reports a drone attack being repelled in Bryansk Oblast, Russia.
     • Nikolaevskiy Vanyok: Reports 7 drones remaining in the Izmail district (2 near Orlovka, 5 near Izmail heading towards Reni).
   • Assessment: Confirms CONTINUED, WIDESPREAD DRONE ACTIVITY across numerous regions of Ukraine and into Russian territory (Bryansk Oblast). The RENI AND IZMAIL AREAS REMAIN A PRIMARY FOCUS. The air alert in the Kyiv region is a PRECAUTIONARY MEASURE.

6. RUSSIAN "MANCHURIAN CANDIDATE" ACCUSATION (CLAIMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Alex Parker Returns posts a tweet from Russian politician Ilya Yashin that reads simply, "Manchurian candidate."
   • Assessment: This adds to the ongoing Russian narrative of outside interference in Russian politics.

7. RUSSIAN CLAIM THAT THE US IS NO LONGER INTERESTED IN EUROPEAN SECURITY (CLAIMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, LOW PRIORITY):

   • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны and Оперативний ЗСУ quote The Telegraph as saying that the US is no longer interested in ensuring the security of Ukraine and Europe.
   • Assessment: This is a highly unlikely claim.

Updated Situation Summary

• ATTACK ON IAEA CONVOY (EXTREME PRIORITY): The reported Ukrainian attack on the IAEA convoy is a MAJOR ESCALATION with potentially SEVERE CONSEQUENCES for nuclear safety and international relations. URGENT INVESTIGATION is required.
• EUROPEAN PUSHBACK AGAINST US NEGOTIATIONS (HIGH PRIORITY): European ministers demanding participation in negotiations creates a MAJOR CHALLENGE to the US-brokered process and INCREASES TENSIONS among Western allies.
• CONTINUED AND EXPANDING DRONE THREAT (HIGH PRIORITY): Widespread drone activity continues across Ukraine and into Belarus and Russia. The RENI AND IZMAIL AREAS REMAIN A PRIMARY FOCUS.
• NEW AIR DEFENSE SYSTEM (MEDIUM PRIORITY): The deployment of the "Gravehawk" system enhances Ukrainian short-range air defense capabilities.
• US POLICY SHIFT TOWARDS FORCED UKRAINIAN CONCESSIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY): This continues.
• TRUMP-PUTIN MEETING IN SAUDI ARABIA CONFIRMED (EXTREME PRIORITY): This will likely be the place that a peace plan is forced upon Ukraine.

Updated Recommendations

1. INVESTIGATE IAEA CONVOY ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Gather all available evidence (video footage, witness testimonies, forensic analysis) to confirm the attack and determine the nature of the weapons used.
   • Identify the units responsible for the attack.
   • Assess the potential impact on the safety and security of the ZNPP.
   • Prepare a strong international response condemning the attack and demanding accountability.

2. ADDRESS BELARUS DRONE INCIDENT (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Analyze the video of the falling lights over Gomel to determine their nature (flares, debris, etc.).
   • Gather intelligence on the origin and purpose of the downed drone.
   • Assess the potential for further drone incursions into Belarusian airspace.
   • Engage in diplomatic discussions with Belarus to address the incident and prevent further escalation.

3. COORDINATE WITH EUROPEAN ALLIES (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Engage in urgent consultations with European allies to discuss their demands for participation in negotiations.
   • Develop a unified strategy for addressing the US-brokered process and ensuring Ukrainian interests are protected.
   • Coordinate public messaging to present a united front.

4. MAINTAIN EXTREME AIR DEFENSE READINESS (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Maintain the highest level of alert across ALL REGIONS experiencing drone activity, particularly the RENI AND IZMAIL AREAS.
   • Continuously monitor drone movements and adjust deployments accordingly.
   • Prioritize the protection of critical infrastructure.

5. INTEGRATE "GRAVEHAWK" SYSTEM (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Rapidly integrate the new "Gravehawk" systems into the existing air defense network.
   • Provide training to personnel on the operation and maintenance of the system.
   • Prioritize deployment to areas facing the greatest drone threat.

6. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): The situation is EXTREMELY DANGEROUS due to the attack on the IAEA convoy.