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Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-02-12 22:08:36Z
7 months ago
Previous (2025-02-12 21:38:35Z)

Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 12, 2025, 22:08 UTC

Changes Since 21:38 UTC (Highest Priority)

  1. TRUMP-PUTIN MEETING CONFIRMED FOR SAUDI ARABIA (CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES, EXTREME PRIORITY):

    • TASS, Рыбарь, and Colonelcassad confirm that Trump plans to meet with Putin in Saudi Arabia. Colonelcassad notes that Europe is no longer considered a viable neutral ground for such talks.
    • Assessment: This SOLIDIFIES the previous reports and adds a CRITICAL DETAIL: the location. Saudi Arabia's role as a mediator is now CONFIRMED. This meeting is HIGHLY LIKELY to be the venue for finalizing and potentially imposing a "peace plan" on Ukraine. Europe's exclusion as a potential location is SIGNIFICANT and indicates a MAJOR SHIFT in diplomatic power dynamics.

  2. TRUMP'S POSITION ON UKRAINE'S SOVEREIGNTY (CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES, EXTREME PRIORITY):

    • Multiple sources (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, РБК-Україна, НгП раZVедка) report on Trump's response to a question about whether Ukraine is an "equal participant" in the peace process. He hesitated and said, "M-m-m, that's an interesting question. I think they'll have to make peace."
    • Assessment: This is a DAMNING STATEMENT from the perspective of Ukraine. Trump's REFUSAL TO ACKNOWLEDGE UKRAINE AS AN EQUAL PARTNER in negotiations signals a COMPLETE DISREGARD FOR UKRAINIAN SOVEREIGNTY. This confirms the worst fears about the US-brokered "peace plan" being imposed on Ukraine, likely with unfavorable terms.

  3. TRUMP WANTS "GUARANTEES" FOR US AID TO UKRAINE (CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES, EXTREME PRIORITY):

    • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Alex Parker Returns, РБК-Україна and Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны report that Trump wants "guarantees" for US financial aid to Ukraine, specifically mentioning that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent should bring back a document outlining these guarantees from Kyiv. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны suggests this relates to an agreement on Ukrainian natural resources.
    • Assessment: This adds another CRITICAL LAYER OF PRESSURE on Ukraine. Trump is CONDITIONING FURTHER AID on securing economic concessions, potentially related to Ukrainian natural resources. This represents a MAJOR LEVERAGE being used against Ukraine and a POTENTIAL EXPLOITATION of its vulnerable position.

  4. TRUMP: CEASEFIRE POSSIBLE, DOESN'T WANT "TEMPORARY" SOLUTION (CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES, HIGH PRIORITY):

    • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны and НгП раZVедка report that Trump believes a ceasefire in Ukraine is possible "in the not too distant future." Trump claims he suggested a ceasefire to Putin, who reportedly said he doesn't want a "temporary" solution.
    • Assessment: This indicates a PUSH FOR A RAPID, BUT POTENTIALLY PERMANENT, RESOLUTION on terms favorable to Russia. The rejection of a "temporary" solution suggests a desire to SOLIDIFY RUSSIAN GAINS and prevent any future attempts by Ukraine to reclaim its territory.

  5. UKRAINIAN GENERAL STAFF REPORT: FOCUS ON POKROVSK AND KURSK (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, HIGH PRIORITY):

    • RBC-Ukraine reports that the Ukrainian General Staff states that 112 combat clashes occurred on February 12. The enemy is concentrating its attacks in Donetsk and Kursk Oblasts.
    • Assessment: This CONFIRMS the continued intensity of fighting, particularly in the POKROVSK DIRECTION (DONETSK OBLAST) and ACROSS THE BORDER IN KURSK OBLAST. This is consistent with previous reports and indicates a MAJOR RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE EFFORT in these areas.

  6. UPDATED DRONE MOVEMENTS (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN/RUSSIAN SOURCES, EXTREME PRIORITY):

    • Nikolaevskiy Vanyok: Provides EXTREMELY DETAILED updates on drone movements:
      • 5 drones approaching Reni.
      • 4 drones north of Izmail, heading towards Reni.
      • 4 drones north of Kiliya, heading west.
      • 3 drones from the sea towards the Izmail district.
      • 2 drones flying back into Moldova from the Odesa region.
      • 4 drones flew past Koblevo heading northwest.
      • 4 drones flew near Snihurivka heading northwest.
      • 5 drones in the Poltava region.
      • 3 drones west of Kharkiv Oblast, heading south.
      • 1 drone heading towards/through Kropyvnytskyi.
      • 3 drones in the Sumy region.
      • 3 drones near Konotop, heading south.
      • 1 drone heading towards/through Nizhyn.
      • 1 drone flew past Pryluky towards Kyiv Oblast.
      • 1 drone approaching Dnipro.
      • 1 drone flying from Odesa Oblast to Vinnytsia Oblast.
    • Assessment: The drone threat is EXTREMELY WIDESPREAD AND DYNAMIC, with a CONTINUED AND INTENSIFIED FOCUS ON THE RENI AND IZMAIL AREAS. The MULTIPLE DRONE INCURSIONS INTO MOLDOVAN AIRSPACE are EXTREMELY SERIOUS and require immediate action. The drone activity across numerous other regions indicates a SUSTAINED AND COORDINATED RUSSIAN EFFORT designed to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses and strike multiple targets.

  7. RUSSIAN "GERAN-3" DRONE (CLAIMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, MEDIUM PRIORITY):

    • Colonelcassad claims Russia is using a new "Geran-3" drone with a speed of 600 km/h, a 2.5m wingspan, a 3.5m length, and radar invisibility.
    • Assessment: Requires verification. If true, this would represent a significant upgrade in Russian drone capabilities, posing a greater threat to Ukrainian infrastructure and defenses.

  8. JAPAN TO ESTABLISH JOINT OPERATIONAL COMMAND WITH US (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, MEDIUM PRIORITY):

    • Colonelcassad reports Japan plans to establish a joint operational command with the US by March 24, further strengthening military ties in the region.
    • Assessment: This represents a further strengthening of military capabilities in the Pacific.

Updated Situation Summary

  • US POLICY SHIFT TOWARDS FORCED UKRAINIAN CONCESSIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY): This remains the DOMINANT DEVELOPMENT. Trump's statements and actions confirm a MAJOR SHIFT towards forcing Ukraine to accept a "peace plan" on unfavorable terms, likely involving territorial concessions. His refusal to acknowledge Ukraine as an equal partner and the demand for economic "guarantees" are EXTREMELY CONCERNING.
  • TRUMP-PUTIN MEETING IN SAUDI ARABIA CONFIRMED (EXTREME PRIORITY): This meeting is HIGHLY LIKELY to be the venue for finalizing and imposing the "peace plan" on Ukraine.
  • INTENSIFIED AND WIDESPREAD DRONE THREAT (EXTREME PRIORITY): The RENI AND IZMAIL AREAS remain the PRIMARY FOCUS, but drone activity is reported across NUMEROUS REGIONS. The REPEATED MOLDOVAN AIRSPACE VIOLATIONS are EXTREMELY SERIOUS.
  • INTENSE GROUND FIGHTING (HIGH PRIORITY): The Ukrainian General Staff report confirms ongoing intense fighting, with a FOCUS ON POKROVSK AND KURSK.
  • CLAIMED NEW "GERAN-3" (MEDIUM): Russia is working to improve the capabilities of the drones used in Ukraine.

Updated Recommendations

  1. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES):

    • The OVERRIDING PRIORITY remains COUNTERING THE US POLICY SHIFT and mitigating its damage. This requires a MASSIVE AND COORDINATED DIPLOMATIC AND PUBLIC RELATIONS EFFORT.
    • The IMMEDIATE TACTICAL PRIORITY is addressing the INTENSIFIED AND WIDESPREAD DRONE THREAT, particularly in the RENI AND IZMAIL AREAS, and dealing with the REPEATED MOLDOVAN AIRSPACE VIOLATIONS.
    • The GROUND FIGHTING in POKROVSK AND KURSK requires CONTINUED MONITORING AND RESPONSE.

  2. ADDRESS MOLDOVAN AIRSPACE VIOLATIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY):

    • Take the same actions already described. This is EXTREMELY IMPORTANT.

  3. MAINTAIN EXTREME AIR DEFENSE READINESS, PRIORITIZE RENI AND IZMAIL (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

    • Maintain the highest level of alert in the Reni and Izmail areas due to the CONTINUED AND INTENSIFIED drone threat.
    • Continuously monitor UAV movements and adjust deployments accordingly.
    • Maintain high alert across ALL REGIONS experiencing drone activity.

  4. INVESTIGATE AND RESPOND TO CLAIMS ABOUT "GERAN-3" DRONE (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

    • Gather intelligence on the claimed "Geran-3" drone.
    • Assess its capabilities and the potential threat it poses.
    • Develop countermeasures if necessary.

  5. VERIFY NEW TRUMP INFORMATION (EXTREME PRIORITY)

    • Verify Trump's claim that he suggested a ceasefire to Putin, and that Putin rejected it because it wasn't permanent.

The situation has deteriorated significantly due to the confirmed shift in US policy and the intensified drone threat. The need for immediate and decisive action is paramount.

Previous (2025-02-12 21:38:35Z)