Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 12, 2025, 21:38 UTC

Changes Since 21:08 UTC (Highest Priority)

1. REPEATED CONFIRMATION: TRUMP AGREES WITH IDEA OF DENYING UKRAINE NATO MEMBERSHIP (CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES, EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Multiple sources (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Alex Parker Returns, Operativnyi ZSU) report Trump's agreement with the idea of denying Ukraine NATO membership. Trump is quoted as saying, "It suits me. I don't think it's practical." He confirms the statement by US Defense Secretary Hegseth that Ukraine's NATO membership is unrealistic.
   • Assessment: This STRONGLY REINFORCES the mounting evidence of a MAJOR SHIFT IN US POLICY regarding Ukraine. The repeated confirmation from multiple sources, even those with differing biases, lends significant credibility to this development. This is a CRITICAL DEVELOPMENT that undermines a cornerstone of Ukraine's long-term security strategy.

2. TRUMP: UKRAINE UNLIKELY TO REGAIN TERRITORY (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • TASS, citing Reuters, reports that Trump believes Ukraine is unlikely to regain territories "liberated" by Russia.
   • Assessment: This is a HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT AND DAMAGING STATEMENT from the perspective of Ukraine. Coming from the US President, it severely undermines Ukraine's negotiating position and morale. It directly contradicts Ukraine's stated war aims and signals a potential acceptance of Russian territorial gains. This requires immediate and forceful diplomatic efforts to counter this narrative.

3. UKRAINIAN SOURCES REPORT TRUMP "PEACE PLAN," EUROPE SHOCKED (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES, EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS: Reports Trump telling Zelenskiy to abandon his hopes of returning Russian-captured territory, and presenting a "peace plan." This is a moment that "Europe has feared for months and even years," Politico is quoted.
   • Operativnyi ZSU: Reports comparison of the current situation to the Munich Agreement.
   • Assessment: These reports add a CRITICAL DIMENSION to the understanding of the US policy shift. It's no longer just about NATO membership; it's about DIRECT PRESSURE ON UKRAINE TO CEDE TERRITORY. The comparison to the 1938 Munich Agreement (where Czechoslovakia was forced to cede territory to Nazi Germany) is EXTREMELY ALARMING and highlights the perceived betrayal by allies.

4. TRUMP: CEASEFIRE POSSIBLE "IN THE NOT TOO DISTANT FUTURE" (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Operativnyi ZSU reports that Trump believes a ceasefire in Ukraine is possible "in the not too distant future" and that new elections should be held in Ukraine "at some point."
   • Assessment: This further reinforces the impression of a US-driven push for a rapid resolution, potentially on unfavorable terms for Ukraine. The call for new elections raises concerns about potential interference in Ukraine's internal affairs and could be interpreted as a veiled attempt to install a more pro-Russian government.

5. DRONE MOVEMENTS (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN/RUSSIAN SOURCES, HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Nikolaevskiy Vanyok: Five more drones are flying in formation towards Reni ("will be loud"). One drone from Odesa Oblast flew into Moldova.

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine:

     • Drones in Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts heading southwest.
     • Drones in Poltava Oblast, heading east and north.
     • Drones in Cherkasy and Mykolaiv Oblasts, heading west.
     • Drones in Poltava, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, heading north.
     • Large group of drones in southern Odesa Oblast, some near the border with Moldova.

   • One drone reported in Donetsk region, heading east.

   • Assessment: The drone threat REMAINS EXTREMELY DYNAMIC AND WIDESPREAD. The continued concentration of drones targeting the Reni area is the most immediate tactical concern. The report of a drone entering Moldovan airspace is a SERIOUS INCIDENT that could have international repercussions. The drone activity across numerous other regions indicates a SUSTAINED AND COORDINATED RUSSIAN EFFORT.

6. CHINA CONTINUES MILITARY PURGES (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, MEDIUM):

   • Colonelcassad: Reports the arrest of Liu Weidun, a high-ranking official from a Chinese state-owned weapons manufacturer.
   • Assessment: This signals China's commitment to strengthen military capabilities.

7. MARIUPOL ACCOUNTS (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, LOW PRIORITY):

   • Военкор Котенок: Provides accounts of the battle of Mariupol.
   • Assessment: This presents the Russian view of earlier battles, and does not impact current operations.

Updated Situation Summary

• US POLICY SHIFT TOWARDS FORCED UKRAINIAN CONCESSIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY): The overwhelming weight of evidence now points to a DRAMATIC AND DAMAGING SHIFT IN US POLICY. Trump's statements about NATO membership, the unlikelihood of Ukraine regaining territory, and the reported "peace plan" forcing territorial concessions are EXTREMELY CONCERNING. This represents a POTENTIAL BETRAYAL of Ukraine by its most important ally and requires IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION.
• POTENTIAL TRUMP-PUTIN MEETING (EXTREME PRIORITY): The planned meeting in Saudi Arabia remains a CRITICAL FOCUS. It is likely the venue where the details of the US-brokered "peace plan" will be finalized and potentially imposed on Ukraine.
• INTENSIFIED DRONE THREAT, FOCUS ON RENI, MOLDOVAN AIRSPACE VIOLATION (EXTREME PRIORITY): The immediate tactical threat remains the concentration of drones targeting the Reni area. The drone incursion into Moldovan airspace is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT that requires immediate diplomatic and military attention.
• INTENSE GROUND FIGHTING (HIGH PRIORITY): The Ukrainian General Staff report (from 21:08 UTC) remains the most recent comprehensive overview of the ground situation. The situation remains unchanged.

Updated Recommendations

1. URGENT DIPLOMATIC OFFENSIVE TO COUNTER US POLICY SHIFT (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Immediately and forcefully engage with all levels of the US government to:
     • Seek unequivocal clarification of US policy on Ukraine's territorial integrity and sovereignty.
     • Express strong opposition to any pressure to cede territory to Russia.
     • Reaffirm US commitment to supporting Ukraine's defense and eventual victory.
   • Launch a coordinated diplomatic campaign with European allies to:
     • Highlight the dangers of the US policy shift and the precedent it sets.
     • Reinforce a unified Western stance in support of Ukraine's territorial integrity.
     • Explore alternative sources of support for Ukraine, in case US assistance is reduced or withdrawn.
   • Prepare a public communications strategy to:
     • Counter the narrative that Ukraine cannot regain its territory.
     • Highlight the sacrifices made by Ukraine and the ongoing Russian aggression.
     • Rally international support for Ukraine's cause.

2. ADDRESS MOLDOVAN AIRSPACE VIOLATION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Immediately contact Moldovan authorities to:
     • Share all available information about the drone incursion.
     • Offer assistance in investigating the incident.
     • Coordinate air defense efforts.
   • Lodge a formal protest with Russia over the violation of Moldovan airspace.
   • Alert NATO to the incident and request increased air defense support for the region.

3. MAINTAIN EXTREME AIR DEFENSE READINESS, PRIORITIZE RENI (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Maintain the highest level of alert in the Reni area due to the continued concentration of drone threats.
   • Continuously monitor UAV movements and adjust deployments accordingly.
   • Maintain high alert across all regions experiencing drone activity.

4. MONITOR GROUND SITUATION, FOCUS ON POKROVSK AND KURSK (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Maintain focus on gathering intelligence and responding to developments in the Pokrovsk and Kursk directions, as per the Ukrainian General Staff report.

5. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All previously issued recommendations remain valid, with priorities adjusted as indicated above. The overriding priority is now to COUNTER THE US POLICY SHIFT and MITIGATE THE DAMAGE it could inflict on Ukraine's war effort and long-term security. The drone threat, particularly in the Reni area and with the Moldovan airspace violation, is the second highest priority.