Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 12, 2025, 20:38 UTC

Changes Since 20:08 UTC (Highest Priority)

1. EXPLOSIONS REPORTED IN ODESA (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, HIGH PRIORITY):

   • RBC-Ukraine, citing Suspilne, reports explosions in Odesa.
   • Assessment: This confirms active attacks targeting Odesa, likely related to the ongoing drone threats. This is a HIGH PRIORITY development requiring immediate attention to air defense and damage assessment.

2. UKRAINE RECOVERS MORE CHILDREN FROM OCCUPIED TERRITORIES (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • RBC-Ukraine: Reports the return of two more children from occupied territories: a 14-year-old girl at risk of being placed in a Russian orphanage and a 17-year-old boy whose family had endured nearly two years of constant shelling. The boy suffered a concussion after an explosion near his home.
   • Assessment: While not a direct military development, this highlights the ongoing humanitarian impact of the conflict and the vulnerability of civilians, particularly children, in occupied areas.

3. ODESA AIR DEFENSE ACTIVATED (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, HIGH PRIORITY):

   • RBC-Ukraine: Reports Odesa Mayor Hennadiy Trukhanov confirms air defense activity in the city in response to the drone threat. He urges residents of the Kyivskyi district to be particularly vigilant.
   • Assessment: This confirms active engagement of Ukrainian air defenses against incoming threats in Odesa. The mayor's warning to a specific district suggests a concentrated threat in that area.

4. UPDATED DRONE MOVEMENTS (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN/RUSSIAN SOURCES, HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Nikolaevskiy Vanyok:

     • 6 drones approaching Vilkovo, potentially heading towards Izmail. Increased drone threat for the entire Izmail district. Approximately 15 drones are either in the area or heading towards it.
     • 1 drone near Kryvyi Rih, heading towards Kazanka.
     • 4 drones near Zaporizhzhia, heading northwest.
     • 2 drones leaving Dnipropetrovsk Oblast for Poltava Oblast.
     • 3 drones in the Kremenchuk district.
     • 2 drones near Myrhorod.
     • 3 drones headed towards/through Pryluky.
     • 1 drone west of Kharkiv, heading south.
     • 2 drones north of Konotop, heading west.

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine:

     • Large group of drones in the southern part of Odesa Oblast. Course south-west.
     • Drones in the south of Sumy Oblast. Course to Kyiv Oblast.
     • Drones near Kryvyi Rih. Course to Mykolaiv Oblast.
     • Drone threat for the Kherson area.
     • Drone threat for Mykolaiv Oblast.

   • Assessment: The drone threat remains EXTREMELY DYNAMIC AND WIDESPREAD. The updated trajectories indicate multiple groups of UAVs maneuvering across a large area of Ukraine, with a particular concentration building near Izmail. The reports from various locations necessitate MAINTAINING EXTREME ALERT ACROSS MULTIPLE REGIONS. Odesa and the Izmail district are now facing the most immediate threat.

5. NETHERLANDS PROVIDES ARMORED MEDICAL VEHICLES (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • RBC-Ukraine: Reports the Netherlands is providing 25 YPR armored tracked vehicles for transporting wounded personnel. Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans also confirmed the completion of T-72 tank deliveries (in cooperation with Czechia and the USA). The exact number of F-16s recently provided was not disclosed.
   • Assessment: This enhances Ukraine's medical evacuation capabilities, which is crucial for minimizing casualties. The continued support from the Netherlands, including tanks and (undisclosed number of) F-16s, contributes to Ukraine's overall military strength.

6. "RAMSTEIN-26" MEETING: WEAPON PROMISES TO UKRAINE (CONFIRMED):

• RBC-Ukraine: Reports promises of weapons to Ukraine after today's meeting: * Germany is to deliver approximately 100 IRIS-T air defense missiles. * Norway joins the drone coalition. * UK announced a package of GBP 150 million, including tanks, artillery, and missiles. * Netherlands is to deliver 25 YPR armored vehicles.

• Assessment: This confirms ongoing military support for Ukraine.

7. CLAIMED RUSSIAN AIRCRAFT CRASH (REPORTED):

• Colonelcassad: Reports a US Navy EA-18G "Growler" electronic warfare aircraft crashed in San Diego Bay, with both pilots reportedly ejecting safely.
• Assessment: While not directly related to military operations in Ukraine, this incident is relevant as it involves the loss of a specialized military aircraft.

8. TASS REPORT ON IAEA ROTATION DELAY AT ZAPORIZHZHIA NPP (REPORTED):

• TASS: Reports that today's rotation of IAEA inspectors at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was canceled due to "intense military activity." Grossi reportedly called the disruption unacceptable.
• Assessment: This highlights the continued dangers and disruptions caused by military activity near critical infrastructure. It also raises concerns about the safety and security of the nuclear power plant.

Updated Situation Summary

• ACTIVE ATTACKS ON ODESA (EXTREME PRIORITY): Confirmed explosions and active air defense engagement in Odesa, likely due to the ongoing drone threat.
• INTENSIFIED DRONE THREAT, FOCUS ON IZMAIL (EXTREME PRIORITY): A significant concentration of drones is approaching or operating in the Izmail district, posing a major threat. Drone activity continues across multiple other regions.
• CONTINUED WESTERN MILITARY AID (MEDIUM PRIORITY): The Netherlands provides armored medical vehicles, and confirms T-72 deliveries. Confirmation of weapon promises from the meeting, including air defense systems.
• HUMANITARIAN IMPACT CONTINUES (MEDIUM PRIORITY): Ukraine recovers two more children from occupied territories, highlighting the ongoing human cost of the conflict.
• ZAPORIZHZHIA NPP SAFETY CONCERNS (MEDIUM PRIORITY): IAEA inspector rotation delayed due to military activity, raising safety concerns.
• RUSSIAN AIRCRAFT CRASH (LOW PRIORITY): A U.S. Navy EA-18G "Growler" crashed.
• FINNISH MILITARY EXERCISES (MEDIUM PRIORITY): Increased military activity on the Finnish-Russian border.

Updated Recommendations

1. MAINTAIN EXTREME AIR DEFENSE READINESS, PRIORITIZE ODESA AND IZMAIL (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Prioritize air defense systems in Odesa and the Izmail district due to the confirmed attacks and concentrated drone threat.
   • Continuously monitor UAV movements and adjust deployments accordingly.
   • Provide immediate damage assessments in Odesa.

2. EXPEDITE INTEGRATION OF IRIS-T MISSILES (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Prioritize the deployment and integration of the incoming IRIS-T missiles into Ukraine's air defense network.
   • Ensure personnel are trained and ready to operate the systems effectively upon arrival.
   • Coordinate with Germany to ensure a smooth and rapid transfer.

3. INTEGRATE NEWLY PROVIDED ARMORED MEDICAL VEHICLES (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Ensure rapid deployment and integration of the Dutch YPR armored medical vehicles into Ukrainian medical units.
   • Train personnel on their operation and maintenance.

4. MAINTAIN MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE READINESS ACROSS UKRAINE (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):

   • Prioritize air defense systems in areas facing ongoing drone and aerial bomb threats (Odesa, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, Poltava, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy).
   • Continuously monitor UAV movements and adjust deployments accordingly, paying particular attention to the Black Sea region near Zmiinyi Island.

5. VERIFY CLAIMED ATTACKS AND CASUALTIES IN BELGOROD OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Utilize all available intelligence assets to confirm or refute the reports of damage and casualties.
   • Assess the type of attacks and their potential origin.

6. MONITOR POTENTIAL NEGOTIATION DEVELOPMENTS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):

   • Gather intelligence on any further contacts between Trump, "Putin" (or representatives), Zelenskyy, and other relevant parties.
   • Assess the credibility of reports and the potential for substantive negotiations.
   • Prepare contingency plans for various negotiation scenarios, including potential concessions and demands.

7. COUNTER RUSSIAN NARRATIVE ON MINSK AGREEMENTS (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Develop and disseminate counter-narratives that highlight Russia's role in undermining the Minsk agreements.
   • Emphasize the importance of adhering to international law and previous commitments.

8. MONITOR ZAPORIZHZHIA NPP SITUATION (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Gather intelligence on the "intense military activity" that caused the delay of the IAEA rotation.
   • Assess the potential risks to the nuclear power plant's safety and security.

9. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All previously issued recommendations remain valid, with priorities adjusted as indicated above. The focus remains on responding to immediate threats (air defense, drone attacks), verifying claims, preparing for potential negotiations, and maintaining a high state of readiness across the country.