Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 12, 2025, 20:08 UTC

Changes Since 19:38 UTC (Highest Priority)

1. GERMAN MISSILE DELIVERY ANNOUNCED (CONFIRMED, GERMAN SOURCE, HIGH PRIORITY):

   • RBC-Ukraine, citing Germany at NATO, reports that Germany will deliver approximately 100 IRIS-T guided missiles to Ukraine "shortly." This was announced in conjunction with a UDCG (Ukraine Defense Contact Group) meeting involving over 50 nations.
   • Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT for Ukraine's air defense capabilities. IRIS-T missiles are highly effective against aircraft, cruise missiles, and drones, directly addressing the ongoing threats identified earlier. The "shortly" timeframe suggests a rapid increase in Ukraine's ability to counter these attacks. This is a HIGH PRIORITY development.

2. CONTINUED DRONE THREAT, UPDATED TRAJECTORIES (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Nikolaevskiy Vanyok: Reports 7 drones circling in the Black Sea near Zmiinyi Island (Snake Island). Also:
     • 2 drones flew past Svetlovodsk towards Cherkasy Oblast.
     • 3 drones from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast crossed into Poltava Oblast.
     • 3 drones near Dnipro, moving northwest.
     • 8 drones from Sumy Oblast crossing into Chernihiv Oblast.
     • 5 drones in Sumy district.
     • 2 drones in western Kharkiv Oblast, crossing into Poltava Oblast.
   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Reports UAVs moving west in the black sea. Additionally, the UAVs have updated directions: * On Dnipropetrovsk region, heading northwest. * On the center of Kharkiv region, heading west. * On Sumy region, heading southwest. * On Poltava region, heading northwest. * On Chernihiv region, heading southwest.
   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Announced a threat in the Cherkasy region (19:43 UTC).
   • RBC-Ukraine: Reports this threat.
   • Assessment: The drone threat remains WIDESPREAD AND DYNAMIC. The updated trajectories indicate multiple groups of UAVs maneuvering across a large area of Ukraine, potentially attempting to evade air defenses and target different regions. The concentration of drones near Zmiinyi Island suggests a possible staging area or a target in the Black Sea. The continued reports from various locations necessitate MAINTAINING HIGH ALERT ACROSS MULTIPLE REGIONS.

3. DAMAGE AND CASUALTIES IN BELGOROD OBLAST (CLAIMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Dva Mayora, citing the governor, reports increased casualties (5 wounded) in Belgorod Oblast due to repeated Ukrainian attacks. Damage reported to vehicles and homes in various settlements (Kolykhalino, Karabanovo, Malinovka, Shebekino). Claims of FPV drone attacks and shelling.
   • Assessment: This requires VERIFICATION. If confirmed, this indicates continued cross-border attacks from Ukraine into Belgorod Oblast. The reports suggest a focus on civilian areas, potentially aiming to disrupt logistics or create panic.

4. OFFICIAL CONFIRMATION OF STRIKE ON GORLOVKA AND CASUALTIES (CLAIMED):

• ASTRA: Reports 1 dead and 15 wounded in Gorlovka. Claims that children were among the casualties.
• Assessment: This needs to be assessed and verified.

5. CONFIRMATION OF TALK BETWEEN TRUMP AND ZELENSKYY, TEAMS TO START NEGOTIATIONS IMMEDIATELY:

• РБК-Україна: Reports the office of the President of Ukraine confirmed the conversation, and that the teams will start negotiations immediately.
• Assessment: This implies the talks are progressing.

6. CLAIMED MINSK-2 AGREEMENT AS A MISTAKE (CLAIMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, LOW PRIORITY):

   • Colonelcassad: Claims that the Minsk-2 agreement is now "officially recognized as a mistake."
   • Assessment: This is likely a RUSSIAN NARRATIVE aimed at justifying the current conflict and undermining past diplomatic efforts. It serves to discredit previous agreements and potentially discourage future negotiations based on similar frameworks.

7. MARK RUTTE ON POTENTIAL RUSSIAN ATTACK ON NATO (REPORTED):

   • Басурин о главном: Mark Rutte stated that he seriously considers the Danish intelligence reports about a potential attack.
   • Assessment: This reinforces the position of NATO.

Updated Situation Summary

• IMMINENT BOOST TO UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSE (HIGH PRIORITY): Germany's announced delivery of ~100 IRIS-T missiles significantly enhances Ukraine's ability to counter air threats.
• PERSISTENT, WIDESPREAD DRONE THREAT (HIGH PRIORITY): Drone attacks continue across multiple regions, with complex and evolving trajectories, requiring constant monitoring and air defense response.
• CLAIMED CROSS-BORDER ATTACKS INTO BELGOROD OBLAST (MEDIUM PRIORITY): Reports of damage and casualties require verification, but suggest continued Ukrainian attacks into Russian territory.
• POTENTIAL NEGOTIATIONS GAINING MOMENTUM (HIGH PRIORITY): Reports of Trump-Putin contacts and a possible push for negotiations by February 24th warrant close monitoring, but remain highly uncertain. The teams between Trump and Zelenskyy will reportedly start negotiations immediately.
• RUSSIAN NARRATIVE ON MINSK-2 (LOW PRIORITY): Claims of Minsk-2 being a "mistake" serve Russian propaganda purposes, discrediting past agreements.
• CONFIRMED AIRSTRIKES IN SUMY OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY): The use of guided aerial bombs poses a significant threat.
• FINNISH MILITARY EXERCISES (MEDIUM PRIORITY): Increased military activity on the Finnish-Russian border.
• GORLOVKA STRIKES: Confirmed strikes and casualties.

Updated Recommendations

1. EXPEDITE INTEGRATION OF IRIS-T MISSILES (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Prioritize the deployment and integration of the incoming IRIS-T missiles into Ukraine's air defense network.
   • Ensure personnel are trained and ready to operate the systems effectively upon arrival.
   • Coordinate with Germany to ensure a smooth and rapid transfer.

2. MAINTAIN MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE READINESS ACROSS UKRAINE (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):

   • Prioritize air defense systems in areas facing ongoing drone and aerial bomb threats (Odesa, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, Poltava, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy).
   • Continuously monitor UAV movements and adjust deployments accordingly, paying particular attention to the Black Sea region near Zmiinyi Island.

3. VERIFY CLAIMED ATTACKS AND CASUALTIES IN BELGOROD OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Utilize all available intelligence assets to confirm or refute the reports of damage and casualties.
   • Assess the type of attacks and their potential origin.

4. MONITOR POTENTIAL NEGOTIATION DEVELOPMENTS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):

   • Gather intelligence on any further contacts between Trump, "Putin" (or representatives), Zelenskyy, and other relevant parties.
   • Assess the credibility of reports and the potential for substantive negotiations.
   • Prepare contingency plans for various negotiation scenarios, including potential concessions and demands.

5. COUNTER RUSSIAN NARRATIVE ON MINSK AGREEMENTS (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Develop and disseminate counter-narratives that highlight Russia's role in undermining the Minsk agreements.
   • Emphasize the importance of adhering to international law and previous commitments.

6. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All previously issued recommendations remain valid, with priorities adjusted as indicated above. The focus remains on responding to immediate threats (air defense, drone attacks), verifying claims, preparing for potential negotiations, and maintaining a high state of readiness across the country.