Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 12, 2025, 19:38 UTC

Changes Since 19:08 UTC (Highest Priority)

1. KYIV AIR RAID ALERT LIFTED (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, HIGH PRIORITY):

   • КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація): Announced the end of the air raid alert in Kyiv (19:26 UTC).
   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Confirmed the end of the threat in Cherkasy and Kyiv Oblasts (19:25 UTC).
   • Оперативний ЗСУ: Confirms the end of the threat.
   • Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT. The lifting of the air raid alert in Kyiv and surrounding regions indicates that the immediate ballistic missile threat has subsided. However, continued vigilance is essential, given the ongoing drone threats and the volatile overall situation.

2. EXPLOSIONS REPORTED IN DNIPRO (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, HIGH PRIORITY):

   • РБК-Україна: Reports explosions in Dnipro, citing "Suspilne" (19:25 UTC).
   • Assessment: This is a CRITICAL DEVELOPMENT. Explosions in Dnipro, occurring amidst ongoing drone threats and shortly after the ballistic missile alert in Kyiv, suggest a CONTINUATION OF ATTACKS, potentially targeting different regions and using varied weaponry.

3. DRONE THREATS UPDATED (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Provided an update on the movement of enemy attack UAVs (19:32 UTC):

     1. UAVs in the Black Sea near Odesa Oblast, moving northwest.
     2. UAVs in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, moving northwest.
     3. UAVs in central Kharkiv Oblast, moving west.
     4. UAVs on the border of Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts, moving northwest.

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Announced a threat in the Poltava Region (19:33 UTC).

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Announced a threat on the Sumy and Kharkiv border (19:35 UTC).

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Announced a threat in the Chernihiv region (19:43 UTC).

   • Nikolaevskiy Vanyok: Reported that drones from the Black Sea had turned back towards the sea, making the estimated arrival time irrelevant (19:19 UTC). However, they also reported:

     • 2 drones west of Kam'yans'ke, moving into Kirovohrad Oblast.
     • 3 drones heading towards/through Dnipro.
     • 2 drones from Zaporizhzhia Oblast towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
     • 1 drone passed Balakliya, heading west.
     • 2 drones from Sumy Oblast towards Chernihiv Oblast.

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Announced a threat in the Kirovohrad region (19:15 UTC).

   • Assessment: This indicates a WIDESPREAD AND EVOLVING DRONE THREAT, with multiple groups of UAVs operating in different regions and changing directions. The reports suggest a complex attack pattern, potentially aiming to overwhelm air defenses or target multiple locations.

4. CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES (CLAIMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Военкор Котенок: Claims Russian forces ("Vostok" group) crossed the road to Huliaipole on a broad front (about 1.5 km) and attacked Ukrainian positions north of the road to a depth of about 1 km, occupying positions near Novoselka. Claims attacks north of Novyi Komar towards Novoochevatovate and Otradne. Claims continued attacks near Bohatyr, Rozlyv, and Konstantynopil. Claims Russian forces advanced northwest of Zelenivka along the left bank of the Sukhi Yaly River to a depth of 1.5 km, threatening Ukrainian supply lines in Zelenivka (19:28 UTC).
   • Assessment: This requires CAREFUL VERIFICATION. If true, these advances represent a significant shift in the front line and increasing pressure on Ukrainian defenses in multiple areas. The claimed disruption of Ukrainian supply lines in Zelenivka is particularly noteworthy. The image accompanying the post gives credence to the claim.

5. 12 UKRAINIAN DRONES DESTROYED OVER CRIMEA (CLAIMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • ТАСС: Reported that Russian air defense systems destroyed 12 Ukrainian UAVs over Crimea (19:23 UTC).
   • Два майора: Claims the drones were shot down while Zelensky was talking to Trump about peace (19:29 UTC).
   • Assessment: This requires VERIFICATION. If confirmed, this represents a significant drone attack on Crimea, successfully intercepted by Russian air defenses. The timing, coinciding with the reported Trump-Zelensky call, is highlighted by the Dva Mayora source, likely to emphasize the contrast between diplomatic efforts and continued Ukrainian military actions.

6. CASUALTIES REPORTED IN DONETSK (CLAIMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • ТАСС: Reports that one person was killed and 15 civilians were wounded in attacks by Ukrainian forces on populated areas of the DPR (Donetsk People's Republic) during the day (19:09 UTC).
   • Assessment: This requires VERIFICATION. This claim, attributed to Pushilin (the head of the DPR), should be treated with caution.

7. UKRAINIAN SANCTIONS ANNOUNCED (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES, LOW PRIORITY):

   • Оперативний ЗСУ: Reports that the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine (RNBO) has imposed sanctions against Petro Poroshenko, citing Forbes Ukraine and two informed sources, one of whom was present at the RNBO meeting. One source suggests it might be related to "treason" (19:18 UTC).

   • STERNENKO: President Zelenskyy has conducted an RNBOU meeting - resolution will be published tomorrow (19:29 UTC).

   • РБК-Україна: Zelenskyy has announced sanctions (19:24 UTC).

   • Assessment: This development indicates internal political tensions and potential legal actions against prominent figures within Ukraine. While not directly related to battlefield operations, it could have significant political ramifications.

Updated Situation Summary

• IMMEDIATE BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT SUBSIDED (HIGH PRIORITY): The air raid alert in Kyiv has been lifted, indicating a reduction in the immediate ballistic missile threat.
• EXPLOSIONS IN DNIPRO (HIGH PRIORITY): Confirmed explosions in Dnipro suggest ongoing attacks, potentially targeting different regions.
• WIDESPREAD DRONE THREATS (HIGH PRIORITY): Drone threats persist across multiple regions, with UAVs moving in various directions, suggesting a complex attack pattern.
• CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES (MEDIUM PRIORITY): Russian sources claim significant advances in several areas, requiring careful verification.
• CLAIMED DRONE INTERCEPTION OVER CRIMEA (MEDIUM PRIORITY): Russian sources claim to have shot down 12 Ukrainian drones over Crimea, requiring verification.

Updated Recommendations

1. MAINTAIN VIGILANCE FOR BALLISTIC MISSILE THREATS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):

   • While the immediate threat in Kyiv has subsided, maintain a high state of readiness for air defense systems across the country, given the volatile situation and the potential for renewed attacks.

2. RESPOND TO EXPLOSIONS IN DNIPRO (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Assess damage and casualties from the reported explosions in Dnipro.
   • Provide emergency services and support to affected areas.
   • Gather intelligence on the type of attack and its origin.

3. COUNTER DRONE THREATS ACROSS MULTIPLE REGIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy air defense systems and electronic warfare measures to intercept and disrupt UAV operations in Odesa, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, Poltava, and Kirovohrad Oblasts.
   • Maintain constant monitoring of UAV movements and adjust air defense deployments accordingly.
   • Issue warnings to the civilian population in areas under threat.

4. VERIFY CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES AND ACTIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Utilize all available intelligence assets to confirm or refute the claimed Russian advances and the reported drone interception over Crimea.
   • Assess the impact on the battlefield situation and Ukrainian defenses if the claims are confirmed.

5. MONITOR RUSSIAN MILITARY ACTIVITY (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):

   • Maintain constant surveillance of Russian military movements and deployments, particularly along the front lines and in areas where advances are claimed.
   • Be prepared for further escalation and potential attacks from multiple directions.

6. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All previously issued recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated above. The focus remains on responding to immediate threats, verifying claims, and maintaining a high state of readiness across the country.