Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 12, 2025, 19:08 UTC

Changes Since 18:38 UTC (Highest Priority)

1. BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT FROM THE NORTH (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES, EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Announced a threat of ballistic weapon use from the north in regions with air raid alerts (19:04 UTC).
   • Оперативний ЗСУ: Echoed the ballistic missile threat from the north (19:05 UTC).
   • КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація): Declared an air raid alert for Kyiv (19:06 UTC).
   • РБК-Україна: Confirmed air raid alerts in Kyiv and several oblasts, indicating a ballistic missile threat from the north (19:06 UTC).
   • STERNENKO: Reports ballistic threat from north-east (19:07 UTC)
   • Assessment: This is a CRITICAL DEVELOPMENT. The confirmation of a ballistic missile threat from the north, with air raid alerts activated in Kyiv and other regions, necessitates IMMEDIATE ACTION. This indicates a significant escalation and a direct threat to major population centers.

2. DRONE THREAT IN DNIPROPETROVSK AND KHARKIV OBLASTS (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Announced a threat of attack UAV use in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (18:41 UTC) and Kharkiv Oblast (18:42 UTC).
   • Assessment: The ongoing drone threat in these regions, combined with the new ballistic missile threat, indicates a MULTI-PRONGED ATTACK strategy.

3. MULTIPLE UAV LAUNCHES REPORTED (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, MEDIUM PRIORITY):

• Два майора: Reports multiple UAV launches by the opposing side (18:50 UTC). * Assessment: Could imply an ongoing Ukrainian attack.

4. DRONE THREAT IN SUMY OBLAST (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Announced a threat of attack UAV use in Sumy Oblast (19:01 UTC).
   • Assessment: The drone threat in this region continues.

5. RUSSIAN ADVANCES NEAR ZAPORIZHZHIA (CLAIMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны: Claims the Russian army is advancing in the Zaporizhzhia region, citing Deep State (a Ukrainian military-analytical resource). Claims Russian forces have almost taken Serebryanoe and are gradually taking over Zaporizhzhia (near the border of Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts). Reports that Russian forces have moved from Yasenovo-Novoandreevka-Serebryanoe, to the village of Orekhovo (18:45 UTC).
   • Assessment: This requires CAREFUL VERIFICATION. If true, these advances represent a significant shift in the front line and increasing pressure on Ukrainian defenses in the region.

6. RUSSIAN STRIKE ON GAS PROCESSING PLANT (CLAIMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны: Claims the Russian army struck the largest gas processing plant in Ukraine, located in Chernihiv Oblast (Gnedintsevsky GPP). Reports that a missile strike hit the plant between 03:00 and 04:00 UTC, citing NASA's fire map. Also claims strikes on Yarovka gas field and Yablonovskoye gas processing unit (18:45 UTC).
   • Assessment: This claim requires VERIFICATION. If confirmed, this attack represents a significant strike on Ukrainian energy infrastructure. The timing coincides with previous reports of overnight attacks.

7. RUSSIAN FORCES DESTROYING UKRAINIAN EQUIPMENT (CLAIMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, MEDIUM PRIORITY):

• Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны: Reports and displays video, showing "Anvar" special forces destroying Ukrainian military equipment on the road from Sumy Oblast to Kursk, at a checkpoint near Pisarevka, preventing entry into Russian territory. Claims destruction of cars, infantry fighting vehicles, and armored personnel carriers (18:59 UTC).
• Assessment: This claim requires VERIFICATION.

8. BELARUSIAN PRISONER RELEASES (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, LOW PRIORITY):

   • Оперативний ЗСУ: Reports the release of journalist Andrei Kuznechik, an unnamed US citizen, and a mother of many children, Elena Movshuk, from Belarusian prisons (18:42 UTC).
   • Assessment: This development is not directly related to military operations in Ukraine but may have broader political implications.

9. RUSSIAN STOCK MARKET SURGE (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, LOW PRIORITY):

   • Alex Parker Returns: Reports a rapid growth of the Moscow Exchange, suggesting a market reaction (19:01 UTC).
   • Assessment: Could imply a market perception of reduced risk.

10. TRUMP-PUTIN-ZELENSKY CALLS CONFIRMED (CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES, LOW PRIORITY):

    • Numerous sources confirm the phone calls between Trump, Putin, and Zelensky, highlighting discussions on peace and upcoming meetings.
    • ASTRA: Reports that Putin spoke to Ahmed al-Sharraa, the temporary president of Syria (18:51 UTC).
    • Assessment: While the diplomatic activity is significant, the immediate impact on the battlefield situation is secondary to the active threats. The reported calls do not alter the existing assessment of a potential shift towards a negotiated settlement, but this remains a long-term consideration.

Updated Situation Summary

• IMMEDIATE BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT (EXTREME PRIORITY): A confirmed ballistic missile threat from the north, targeting Kyiv and other regions, represents the most urgent development.
• ONGOING DRONE THREATS (HIGH PRIORITY): Drone threats persist in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, and Sumy Oblasts, suggesting a multi-pronged attack.
• CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES (MEDIUM PRIORITY): Russian sources claim advances near Zaporizhzhia and strikes on energy infrastructure, requiring verification.
• DIPLOMATIC ACTIVITY CONTINUES (LOW PRIORITY): While diplomatic efforts are ongoing, the immediate battlefield threats take precedence.

Updated Recommendations

1. ACTIVATE AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS, PRIORITIZE KYIV AND AFFECTED REGIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy all available air defense systems to counter the ballistic missile threat, prioritizing Kyiv and other regions under alert.
   • Issue immediate warnings to the civilian population to seek shelter.
   • Prepare for potential casualties and damage to infrastructure.

2. MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT FOR DRONE ATTACKS (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Maintain a high state of readiness for air defense systems in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, and Sumy Oblasts to counter the ongoing drone threat.
   • Deploy electronic warfare systems to disrupt drone operations.

3. VERIFY CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES AND STRIKES (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Utilize all available intelligence assets to confirm or refute the claimed Russian advances near Zaporizhzhia and the reported strikes on energy infrastructure.
   • Assess the impact on the battlefield situation and Ukrainian defenses if the claims are confirmed.

4. MONITOR RUSSIAN MILITARY ACTIVITY (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):

   • Maintain constant surveillance of Russian military movements and deployments, particularly along the northern border and in areas where advances are claimed.
   • Be prepared for further escalation and potential attacks from multiple directions.

5. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All previously issued recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated above. The focus on gathering intelligence regarding the Trump-Zelensky call remains important, but the immediate threat of ballistic missiles and drones takes precedence.

The confirmed ballistic missile threat from the north represents a significant escalation and requires immediate action to protect civilian populations and critical infrastructure. The ongoing drone threats and reported Russian advances further complicate the situation, necessitating continuous monitoring, rapid adaptation, and proactive intelligence gathering.