Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 12, 2025, 18:38 UTC

Changes Since 18:08 UTC (Highest Priority)

1. TRUMP CONFIRMS "VERY GOOD" CALL WITH ZELENSKY (CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES, EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, Kotsnews, ASTRA, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны all report Trump's confirmation of a "very good" call with Zelensky.
   • Content of Trump's Statement (according to multiple sources):
     • Discussion of various war-related topics, primarily the upcoming meeting in Munich on Friday.
     • Delegation to be led by Vice President J.D. Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
     • Hope for positive results from the Munich meeting.
     • Desire for peace, similar to Putin.
     • Acknowledgement of the "massive and completely unnecessary DEATHS and DESTRUCTION."
     • Blessing for the people of Russia and Ukraine.
   • Zelensky's Statement Echoed by Multiple Sources (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):
     • Оперативний ЗСУ, 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА), 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 all repeat the same message initially posted by Zelenskiy / Official. This confirms the coordinated communication strategy and reinforces the key points: achieving peace, technological cooperation, a new security agreement, and Trump's briefing on his Putin call.
   • Assessment: This solidifies the importance of the Trump-Zelensky call. Trump's statement, while brief, indicates a potential shift towards prioritizing a negotiated settlement. The emphasis on the Munich meeting and the high-level delegation (Vance and Rubio) is extremely significant. The explicit mention of "DEATHS and DESTRUCTION" suggests a possible change in rhetoric. The coordinated messaging from Ukrainian sources confirms a deliberate effort to shape the narrative and highlight specific points of the conversation. This remains a CRITICAL DEVELOPMENT requiring intense scrutiny.

2. RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN VODYANE DRUHE (CLAIMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Военкор Котенок: Claims that Vodyane Druhe has completely fallen under Russian control, with the industrial zone retaken. Also reports ongoing battles for Berezovka.
   • Assessment: This requires URGENT verification. If confirmed, it would represent a significant Russian tactical gain. This is a critical area to monitor for further developments.

3. ROCKET AND DRONE THREAT (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES, HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Reports rocket danger in areas with air raid alerts, and a threat of UAV use in Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Also reports "Shahed" drones near Zaporizhzhia, moving north.
   • 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦: Declared an air alarm.
   • Assessment: This confirms an ongoing and evolving threat from both rockets and drones. The specific threat to Zaporizhzhia is concerning, given the earlier lifting of the air raid alert. The northward movement of drones suggests potential targeting of areas further north.

4. UKRAINIAN FORCES PROVOKING BORDER INCIDENT (CLAIMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Два майора: Reports that Ukrainian forces may be provoking the border through Sumy.
   • Assessment: This could suggest a Ukrainian attempt to divert Russian forces.

5. RUSSIAN CITIZEN EXTRADITION STATUS (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Colonelcassad: Reports that a Russian citizen involved in cryptocurrency is no longer in prison in the US, suggesting an exchange.
   • Assessment: Could imply a possible negotiation.

Updated Situation Summary

• TRUMP-ZELENSKY CALL CONFIRMED, SHIFTING DYNAMICS (EXTREME PRIORITY): Both Trump and Zelensky have confirmed the call and provided details. Trump's emphasis on peace, the Munich meeting, and a high-level delegation signal a potential major shift in the US approach. The coordinated messaging from Ukrainian sources reinforces key points and suggests a deliberate communication strategy.
• RUSSIAN ADVANCE CLAIMED IN VODYANE DRUHE (HIGH PRIORITY): This claim requires urgent verification. If confirmed, it would represent a significant Russian tactical gain.
• ONGOING ROCKET AND DRONE THREAT (HIGH PRIORITY): The threat persists, with specific concerns for Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.
• STOCK MARKET REACTION CONTINUES (MEDIUM PRIORITY): The surge in Russian stocks, in response to the Trump-Putin call, continues to suggest a market perception of reduced risk.

Updated Recommendations

1. CONTINUE INTENSIVE INTELLIGENCE GATHERING ON TRUMP-ZELENSKY CALL (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • All previous recommendations remain in effect.
   • Focus on gathering details of the proposed "new agreement on security, economic, and resource interaction." Determine the implications for US military aid, long-term support, and potential conditions attached.
   • Analyze the impact of Trump's briefing to Zelensky on his conversation with Putin. What information was shared, and how might it influence Ukrainian strategy and negotiating positions?
   • Prepare for potential shifts in US policy and engagement in the conflict, particularly regarding military aid and diplomatic initiatives.
   • Assess the potential for the Munich meeting to become a significant turning point in the conflict. Gather intelligence on the agenda, participants, and potential outcomes.

2. VERIFY REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN VODYANE DRUHE (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy all available intelligence assets to confirm or refute the claimed Russian advance. Use satellite imagery, drone reconnaissance, and human intelligence sources.
   • Assess the impact on the overall tactical situation if the claim is confirmed. Determine the implications for Ukrainian defensive lines and potential counteroffensive options.

3. MAINTAIN AIR DEFENSE READINESS, FOCUS ON ZAPORIZHZHIA AND DNIPROPETROVSK (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Maintain a high level of alert for air defense systems across Ukraine, with particular focus on Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.
   • Monitor the movement of "Shahed" drones and deploy air defense assets accordingly.
   • Prepare for potential rocket attacks in areas with air raid alerts.

4. MONITOR DIPLOMATIC DEVELOPMENTS (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Track any further statements or actions by US, Russian, Ukrainian, or other relevant officials.
   • Assess the potential for the Munich meeting to lead to concrete negotiations or agreements.
   • Develop contingency plans for various scenarios, including a potential ceasefire, a negotiated settlement, or a continuation of hostilities.

5. ANALYZE RUSSIAN STOCK MARKET REACTION (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Continue to monitor the Russian stock market for further developments.
   • Assess the potential impact on the Russian economy and its ability to sustain military operations.

6. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All previously issued recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated above.

The confirmed details of the Trump-Zelensky call, along with Trump's public statement, reinforce the potential for a significant shift in the strategic landscape. The reported Russian advance and the ongoing air threat require immediate attention and action. Continuous monitoring, rapid adaptation, and proactive intelligence gathering are crucial to navigating this complex and evolving situation.