Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 12, 2025, 13:38 UTC

Changes and New Information (13:08 UTC - 13:38 UTC)

1. AIR ALERTS AND ACTIVITY (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Zaporizhzhia Air Alert Lifted (CONFIRMED): Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (13:08 UTC) reports the end of the air raid alert.
   • Tactical Aviation Activity (SOUTHEAST, CONFIRMED, HIGH PRIORITY): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (13:09 UTC) reports enemy tactical aviation activity in the southeastern direction. This is a new development and is extremely significant. It signals a high threat of airstrikes using aircraft and potentially air-launched missiles in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts.
   • Guided Aerial Bombs (Zaporizhzhia, CONFIRMED): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (13:12) reports the launch of guided aerial bombs in the Zaporizhzhia direction.
   • Guided Aerial Bombs (Sumy, CONFIRMED): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (13:34) reports the launch of guided aerial bombs in the Sumy direction.
   • Tactical Aviation Activity (NORTHEAST, CONFIRMED, HIGH PRIORITY): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (13:30) reports enemy tactical aviation activity in the northeastern direction. This is a new development and is extremely significant. It signals a high threat of airstrikes using aircraft and potentially air-launched missiles in frontline oblasts.
   • Melitopol/Tokmak Missile Threat (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (13:33 UTC) reports a missile threat in Melitopol and Tokmak, with air defenses reportedly active. This requires confirmation from Ukrainian sources.
   • Assessment: The confirmed activity of Russian tactical aviation in both the southeast and northeast, combined with the reported use of guided aerial bombs, presents a VERY HIGH and IMMINENT threat of airstrikes across multiple regions. This requires immediate and sustained air defense readiness. The reported missile threat near Melitopol/Tokmak, if confirmed, would indicate a further escalation.

2. CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES (REQUIRES VERIFICATION, HIGH PRIORITY):

• Kursk Direction (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): Военкор Котенок (13:33 UTC) reports that Russian airborne forces have retaken most of Sverdlikovo, with Ukrainian forces remaining in the south and east. * Dnipropetrovsk Direction (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): Военкор Котенок (13:27 UTC) reports continued Russian advances towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Claims that Russian forces have taken the southwestern outskirts of Uspenivka and are attacking towards Novooleksandrivka and north of Nadezhdinka. Also claims Russian forces have taken Zaporizhzhia (village) and are advancing on Preobrazhenka from three sides.
• Assessment: These are significant claims and require confirmation from Ukrainian sources and independent verification. If confirmed, they represent substantial Russian gains and a shift in the battlefield situation, particularly the reported advances towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The claimed near-encirclement of Preobrazhenka would be a major tactical development.

3. REPORTED UKRAINIAN COUNTEROFFENSIVE (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, HIGH PRIORITY):

   • РБК-Україна (13:20 UTC) quotes the Estonian Minister of Defense stating that Ukrainian forces are launching counteroffensives with "certain successes." He emphasizes the need for increased military aid.
   • Assessment: This is a significant statement, acknowledging Ukrainian offensive actions. The lack of specifics on location requires further investigation, but it suggests that Ukraine is actively contesting Russian advances. This contradicts the reports of Russian advances, at least in general terms.

4. UKRAINIAN SBU ESPIONAGE CASE (FURTHER DETAILS, HIGH PRIORITY):

   • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (13:09 UTC) provides a video of the arrest of Colonel Dmytro Kozyura, confirming previous reports. The video includes a statement by SBU Head Vasyl Malyuk emphasizing the long-term counterintelligence operation, the use of sophisticated surveillance, and the personal involvement of Malyuk and President Zelensky. The video claims Kozyura was recruited in 2018. The FSB supposedly wanted him to supply secret information on the armaments of the Ukrainian Security and Defense Forces, critical infrastructure objects, the results of missile attacks, information about senior military and political leadership, and the operation of state registers after the cyberattack.
   • РБК-Україна (13:25) repeats the information.
   • Assessment: This confirms the arrest and provides significant new details, highlighting the long-term nature of the espionage, the sophistication of the Ukrainian counterintelligence operation, and the high-level involvement in addressing the breach. This is a major internal security issue for Ukraine, but also a demonstration of successful counterintelligence.

5. DRONE ATTACK NEAR ZAPORIZHZHIA NUCLEAR POWER PLANT (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Mash на Донбассе (13:27 UTC) reports a Ukrainian drone attack on a parking lot near the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, claiming the drone was 300 meters from a reactor. The report claims the attack caused the cancellation of a planned IAEA observer rotation.
   • Assessment: This requires confirmation from Ukrainian sources and independent verification, particularly from the IAEA. If confirmed, it represents a serious incident with potentially grave implications for nuclear safety. The claimed cancellation of the IAEA rotation is also significant.

6. REPORTED UKRAINIAN CASUALTIES (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCES):

   • Horlivka Shelling (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (13:07 UTC) claims six civilians were wounded in Horlivka due to Ukrainian shelling. Claims that Ukrainian artillery still has enough range.
   • Assessment: Needs confirmation. Indicates potential collateral damage.

7. REPORTED UKRAINIAN ADVANCE (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCES):

• Vovchansk Direction (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (13:30 UTC) reports a soldier of the consolidated rifle brigade of the Air Force, along with the infantry, paratroopers, and marines, is holding the front and destroying the enemy in the Vovchansk direction, in Kharkiv. The post indicates an ask for funding.
• Assessment: Indicates Ukrainian troops are keeping the enemy at bay in this area.

8. UKRAINIAN MILITARY ACTIONS (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

• Kupyansk Direction (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (13:06 UTC) reports Russian reconnaissance units identifying and destroying Ukrainian infantry groups using FPV drones.
• Dachny Direction (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): WarGonzo (13:31 UTC) reports that assault groups cleared territory in the Dachny area, using grenades. They pushed the Ukrainian units from their shelters. * Assessment: This is a standard combat situation.

9. POSSIBLE RUSSIAN MOVES (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

• Kursk Direction (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): Военкор Котенок (13:33) reports Russian paratroopers captured the majority of Sverdlikovo.
• Assessment: This is another location to watch.

10. CULTURAL UPDATES (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCES):

• War Movie (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): WarGonzo (13:15) reports that a new movie based on the fighting in Donbas will start playing next week.
• First Sentence (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): Север.Реалии (13:19) reports that a St. Petersburg court has issued the first verdict in a case on training for the purpose of sabotage. Ukrainian citizens Oleksandr Maistruk and Eduard Usatenko were sentenced to 23 years in a criminal case on training to carry out sabotage and terrorist activities.

11. UKRAINIAN SUPPORT (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • Оперативний ЗСУ (13:28 UTC) reports Switzerland has approved the allocation of approximately 1.6 billion euros for Ukraine for the period of 2025-2028 for reconstruction, reforms, and sustainable development programs.
    • Assessment: This is a significant commitment of long-term support for Ukraine's recovery.

12. RAMSTEIN MEETING (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

• РБК-Україна (13:37 UTC) reports that the UK is opening a "Ramstein" meeting for the first time.
• Assessment: This is significant, since this is the first time the UK has taken this position.

Updated Situation Summary

• IMMINENT AIR THREAT (SOUTHEASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN UKRAINE, EXTREME PRIORITY): The confirmed activity of Russian tactical aviation in both the southeastern and northeastern directions, combined with the reported use of guided aerial bombs, represents an extremely high and imminent threat of airstrikes across multiple regions, particularly Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and frontline areas in the northeast. The reported missile threat near Melitopol/Tokmak adds to the danger.
• POTENTIAL RUSSIAN ADVANCES (REQUIRES VERIFICATION, HIGH PRIORITY): The claimed Russian advances near Vremivka, in the Pokrovsk direction, and near Chasiv Yar, and now towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and near Sverdlikovo, if confirmed, represent significant shifts in the battlefield situation. The reported near-encirclement of Preobrazhenka is particularly concerning.
• CONFIRMED UKRAINIAN COUNTEROFFENSIVE ACTIVITY (HIGH PRIORITY): The statement from the Estonian Minister of Defense confirms that Ukrainian forces are conducting counteroffensives, although specific locations are unclear.
• CONFIRMED DRONE DELIVERY: The delivery of drones to the Vovchansk area in Kharkiv suggests this area will see increased drone activity.
• CONTINUED FIGHTING ACROSS MULTIPLE FRONTS (HIGH PRIORITY): Reports continue to indicate active clashes and engagements across various axes, including the Pokrovsk direction.
• MISSILE ACTIVITY (CONFIRMED): The reported cruise missile near Voskresenske confirms the ongoing threat of long-range strikes.
• PROPAGANDA AND DISINFORMATION CONTINUE (HIGH PRIORITY): Both sides continue to engage in information warfare.
• CONFIRMED ESPIONAGE WITHIN SBU (HIGH PRIORITY): The reported, and now confirmed, arrest of a high-ranking SBU official for espionage is a significant development, demonstrating successful Ukrainian counterintelligence efforts. This is a major development and further details are emerging.
• REPORTED CASUALTIES FROM SHELLING (HIGH PRIORITY): The claim of 6 wounded in Horlivka, if confirmed, highlights the human cost of continued shelling.
• REPORTED DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS IN KYIV (HIGH PRIORITY): The report of damage to gasified buildings indicates property damage and potential disruption of essential services.
• SIGNIFICANT DRONE DELIVERIES TO UKRAINIAN FORCES (CONFIRMED, HIGH PRIORITY): The confirmed delivery of 320 drones to various Ukrainian units substantially boosts their capabilities.
• NATO'S STANCE ON NEGOTIATIONS (REITERATED, HIGH PRIORITY): NATO continues to emphasize the need for a strong Ukrainian position before negotiations, and rejects the Minsk agreements framework.
• POTENTIAL RUSSIAN STRIKE ON UKRAINIAN MEDIA (REPORTED, HIGH PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): If confirmed, this represents a significant escalation, targeting information infrastructure.
• POTENTIAL DRONE ATTACK NEAR ZAPORIZHZHIA NUCLEAR POWER PLANT (REPORTED, HIGH PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): This represents a major potential threat to nuclear safety.

Updated Recommendations

1. MAINTAIN EXTREME AIR DEFENSE READINESS (SOUTHEASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN UKRAINE, EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Maintain an extremely high state of readiness for air defense assets in the southeastern and northeastern regions (Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Sumy, Kharkiv, potentially Kherson) to counter the imminent threat of airstrikes from tactical aviation and guided aerial bombs.
   • Prioritize protection of critical infrastructure, troop concentrations, population centers, and especially the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
   • Maintain warnings to ground forces and civilian populations.

2. VERIFY REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Utilize all available intelligence resources (satellite imagery, drone reconnaissance, human intelligence) to confirm or refute the claimed Russian advances near Vremivka, the Pokrovsk direction, Chasiv Yar, towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and near Sverdlikovo.
   • Assess the impact of any confirmed advances on Ukrainian defensive lines and strategic positions.
   • Pay particular attention to the reported near-encirclement of Preobrazhenka.

3. INVESTIGATE REPORTED UKRAINIAN COUNTEROFFENSIVE ACTIVITY (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Gather intelligence to determine the locations and scale of the reported Ukrainian counteroffensives.
   • Assess the impact of these counteroffensives on Russian forces and the overall battlefield situation.

4. MAINTAIN VIGILANCE ACROSS ALL FRONTS (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Continue to monitor all areas of active fighting and be prepared for potential offensives or counter-offensives.
   • Reinforce defensive positions where necessary.

5. COUNTER-PROPAGANDA AND DISINFORMATION EFFORTS (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Continue to actively monitor and counter disinformation campaigns from all sides.
   • Provide accurate and timely information to the public and international partners.

• Specifically counter claims about the Russian strike in Kyiv if it is determined to be disinformation.

6. INVESTIGATE AND ADDRESS SBU ESPIONAGE CASE (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Thoroughly investigate the extent of the compromised information and take steps to mitigate the damage.
   • Review security protocols within the SBU to prevent future breaches.

7. ASSESS DAMAGE AND PROVIDE ASSISTANCE (HIGH PRIORITY):

• Assess the damage to buildings in Kyiv and provide necessary assistance to affected residents. * Verify and address the reported casualties in Horlivka.

8. INTEGRATE NEW DRONE CAPABILITIES (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Ensure the newly delivered drones are rapidly integrated into operational units.
   • Provide necessary training to operators.
   • Prioritize the use of these drones for reconnaissance and targeting in areas of active fighting, particularly where Russian advances are reported or suspected.

9. VERIFY AND ASSESS REPORTED STRIKE ON MEDIA IN KYIV (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Gather information from Ukrainian sources and independent media to confirm the reported strike on media infrastructure in Kyiv.
   • Assess the extent of the damage and the impact on Ukrainian information operations.
   • If confirmed, prepare a public response condemning the attack and highlighting its implications for freedom of the press.

10. CONTINUE MONITORING NATO STATEMENTS AND COORDINATION (HIGH PRIORITY): * Closely monitor statements from NATO officials regarding Ukraine and negotiations. * Maintain close communication with NATO allies to ensure a unified approach.

• Pay particular attention to statements from the UK, as they are chairing the Ramstein meeting.

11. INVESTIGATE REPORTED DRONE ATTACK NEAR ZAPORIZHZHIA NUCLEAR POWER PLANT (EXTREME PRIORITY):

• Urgently verify the reported drone attack near the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
• Coordinate with the IAEA to confirm the reported cancellation of the observer rotation and to assess any potential damage or threat to the plant.
• If confirmed, prepare a strong public response condemning the attack and highlighting the recklessness of such actions.

12. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT, with priorities adjusted as indicated above. The situation remains highly dynamic, with the confirmed and heightened air threat in both the southeast and northeast being the most immediate and critical concern. The reported Russian advances, the confirmed Ukrainian counteroffensive activity, the espionage case, and the potential drone attack near the nuclear power plant all require urgent attention and action.