Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 12, 2025, 13:08 UTC

Changes and New Information (12:38 UTC - 13:08 UTC)

1. NATO ON NEGOTIATIONS (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, HIGH PRIORITY):

   • РБК-Україна (12:38 UTC) video shows the NATO Secretary-General stating that the stronger Ukraine is on the battlefield, the stronger it will be at the negotiating table. He emphasizes that many of Ukraine's allies agree that Ukraine should receive everything it needs to have a position of strength when negotiations begin.
   • Assessment: This reiterates NATO's consistent position and provides insight into the strategic thinking behind continued military aid to Ukraine. It does not represent a change in policy, but a reinforcement of the existing approach. It's a clear signal that military aid is intended to improve Ukraine's bargaining power.

2. REPORTED RUSSIAN STRIKE ON UKRAINIAN MEDIA IN KYIV (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (12:40 UTC) claims a Russian missile strike targeted Ukrainian state propaganda channels in Kyiv, including FREEДОМ, Дім, UATVEnglish, The Gaze, UATVespañol, UATVArabic, UATVPortuguês. They claim significant damage to the newsroom of FREEДОМ and other facilities, but no casualties.
   • Assessment: This requires confirmation from Ukrainian sources and independent verification. If confirmed, it represents a significant escalation, targeting media infrastructure. This would align with Russian efforts to disrupt Ukrainian information operations and control the narrative. It would also have implications for freedom of the press.

3. CONFIRMED ESPIONAGE WITHIN SBU (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES, HIGH PRIORITY):

   • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (12:41 UTC) reiterates, with further detail, the arrest of a high-ranking SBU official (Head of the Anti-Terrorist Center Staff) for alleged espionage for Russia. It emphasizes the personal involvement of SBU Head Vasyl Malyuk in the arrest and the use of sophisticated surveillance techniques. The report claims 14 instances of illegal activity were documented.
   • Assessment: This reinforces the previous report and provides additional details. The mention of 14 documented instances suggests substantial evidence of espionage. The personal involvement of the SBU Head emphasizes the seriousness of the breach. This is a major internal security issue for Ukraine.

4. DRONE DELIVERIES TO UKRAINIAN FORCES (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, HIGH PRIORITY):

   • STERNENKO (12:42 UTC) multiple video messages and a text post detailing the delivery of 320 drones to various Ukrainian units:
     • 50 FPV drones to the 155th Separate Marine Brigade.
     • 20 "heavenly" FPV drones to the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade.
     • 50 "thick" FPV drones to the 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade.
     • 100 various FPV drones to the Flying Skull unit.
     • 50 FPV drones to the 419th Separate Battalion of Unmanned Systems.
     • 50 FPV drones to the 3rd Separate Special Purpose Regiment.
     • Provides donation links for further support.
   • Assessment: This is a significant report confirming substantial drone deliveries to multiple Ukrainian units. It highlights the continued reliance on drone warfare and the importance of civilian-funded support. This is critical for enhancing Ukrainian reconnaissance, targeting, and strike capabilities.

5. NATO ON MINSK AGREEMENTS (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, HIGH PRIORITY):

   • РБК-Україна (12:45 UTC) quotes the NATO Secretary-General stating that there will be "no Minsk agreements," emphasizing that any future agreements with Russia must be durable and not repeat past mistakes. He also mentions "very good" coordination with the Trump administration on Ukraine.
   • Assessment: This is a significant statement, explicitly rejecting the framework of the Minsk agreements. It signals a commitment to a stronger and more enduring solution, and potentially a tougher negotiating stance. The reference to coordination with the Trump administration is noteworthy and requires further monitoring.

6. RUSSIAN CLAIMED ADVANCES (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCES, HIGH PRIORITY, VERIFICATION PENDING)

• Дневник Десантника🇷🇺: (12:51) Reports Russian advances around Chasiv Yar. * Assessment: This is a new front, and requires a lot of verification, but, if true, is very significant.

7. *CLAIMED RUSSIAN CYBER OPERATIONS (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE)**:
   • Colonelcassad (12:53) Reports Ukrainian attacks using drones.
   • Assessment: This indicates a drone attack.

Updated Situation Summary

• IMMINENT AIR THREAT (SOUTHEASTERN UKRAINE, HIGH PRIORITY): The confirmed activity of Russian tactical aviation in the south-eastern direction signals an imminent threat of airstrikes. This is the highest priority and requires immediate action. The air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia was called off, suggesting the immediate threat has passed, but high alert remains essential.
• POTENTIAL RUSSIAN ADVANCES (REQUIRES VERIFICATION, HIGH PRIORITY): The claimed Russian advances near Vremivka, in the Pokrovsk direction, and Chasiv Yar, if confirmed, represent significant shifts in the battlefield situation.
• CONTINUED FIGHTING ACROSS MULTIPLE FRONTS (HIGH PRIORITY): Reports continue to indicate active clashes and engagements across various axes, including the Pokrovsk direction.
• MISSILE ACTIVITY (CONFIRMED): The reported cruise missile near Voskresenske confirms the ongoing threat of long-range strikes.
• PROPAGANDA AND DISINFORMATION CONTINUE (HIGH PRIORITY): Both sides continue to engage in information warfare.
• CONFIRMED ESPIONAGE WITHIN SBU (HIGH PRIORITY): The reported, and now confirmed, arrest of a high-ranking SBU official for espionage is a significant development, demonstrating successful Ukrainian counterintelligence efforts. This is a major development and further details are emerging.
• REPORTED CASUALTIES FROM SHELLING (HIGH PRIORITY): The claim of 6 wounded in Horlivka, if confirmed, highlights the human cost of continued shelling.
• REPORTED DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS IN KYIV (HIGH PRIORITY): The report of damage to gasified buildings indicates property damage and potential disruption of essential services.
• SIGNIFICANT DRONE DELIVERIES TO UKRAINIAN FORCES (CONFIRMED, HIGH PRIORITY): The confirmed delivery of 320 drones to various Ukrainian units substantially boosts their capabilities.
• NATO'S STANCE ON NEGOTIATIONS (REITERATED, HIGH PRIORITY): NATO continues to emphasize the need for a strong Ukrainian position before negotiations, and rejects the Minsk agreements framework.
• POTENTIAL RUSSIAN STRIKE ON UKRAINIAN MEDIA (REPORTED, HIGH PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): If confirmed, this represents a significant escalation, targeting information infrastructure.

Updated Recommendations

1. MAINTAIN HIGH AIR DEFENSE READINESS (SOUTHEASTERN UKRAINE, EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Maintain a high state of readiness for air defense assets in the south-eastern regions (Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, potentially Kherson) to counter the ongoing threat of airstrikes, even though the immediate alert has been lifted.
   • Prioritize protection of critical infrastructure, troop concentrations, and population centers.
   • Maintain warnings to ground forces and civilian populations, and ensure that they can be reactivated rapidly.

2. VERIFY REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Utilize all available intelligence resources (satellite imagery, drone reconnaissance, human intelligence) to confirm or refute the claimed Russian advances near Vremivka, the Pokrovsk direction and Chasiv Yar.
   • Assess the impact of any confirmed advances on Ukrainian defensive lines and strategic positions.

3. MAINTAIN VIGILANCE ACROSS ALL FRONTS (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Continue to monitor all areas of active fighting and be prepared for potential offensives or counter-offensives.
   • Reinforce defensive positions where necessary.

4. COUNTER-PROPAGANDA AND DISINFORMATION EFFORTS (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Continue to actively monitor and counter disinformation campaigns from all sides.
   • Provide accurate and timely information to the public and international partners.

• Specifically counter claims about the Russian strike in Kyiv if it is determined to be disinformation.

5. INVESTIGATE AND ADDRESS SBU ESPIONAGE CASE (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Thoroughly investigate the extent of the compromised information and take steps to mitigate the damage.
   • Review security protocols within the SBU to prevent future breaches.

6. ASSESS DAMAGE AND PROVIDE ASSISTANCE (HIGH PRIORITY):

• Assess the damage to buildings in Kyiv and provide necessary assistance to affected residents. * Verify and address the reported casualties in Horlivka.

7. INTEGRATE NEW DRONE CAPABILITIES (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Ensure the newly delivered drones are rapidly integrated into operational units.
   • Provide necessary training to operators.
   • Prioritize the use of these drones for reconnaissance and targeting in areas of active fighting, particularly where Russian advances are reported or suspected.

8. VERIFY AND ASSESS REPORTED STRIKE ON MEDIA IN KYIV (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Gather information from Ukrainian sources and independent media to confirm the reported strike on media infrastructure in Kyiv.
   • Assess the extent of the damage and the impact on Ukrainian information operations.
   • If confirmed, prepare a public response condemning the attack and highlighting its implications for freedom of the press.

9. CONTINUE MONITORING NATO STATEMENTS AND COORDINATION (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Closely monitor statements from NATO officials regarding Ukraine and negotiations.
   • Maintain close communication with NATO allies to ensure a unified approach.

10. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT, with priorities adjusted as indicated above. The situation remains highly dynamic, with the confirmed delivery of drones to Ukrainian forces, the ongoing espionage case within the SBU, and the potential Russian strike on media infrastructure in Kyiv representing major developments requiring immediate attention. The claimed Russian advances also require urgent verification.