Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 12, 2025, 12:38 UTC

Changes and New Information (11:38 UTC - 12:38 UTC)

1. AIR ACTIVITY (SOUTH-EASTERN DIRECTION, EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (12:00 UTC) reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the south-eastern direction, with a threat of the use of air-launched weapons.
   • Assessment: This is a significant threat escalation, indicating potential imminent airstrikes. The south-eastern direction likely encompasses the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions, and potentially Kherson. This requires immediate deployment of air defense assets and warnings to ground forces.

2. RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR VREMIVKA (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):

   • ТАСС (12:06 UTC), citing Rogov, claims Russian forces have advanced west of liberated Vremivka towards Novosilka (on the border of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk regions), liberating around 9 sq km of territory.
   • Assessment: This requires verification from independent sources. The claimed location is strategically important as it sits at the junction of three key regions. If confirmed, this represents a notable Russian advance and potential pressure on Ukrainian defenses in this area.

3. ZAPORIZHZHIA AIR RAID ALERT (ACTIVE, THEN CALLED OFF, EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (11:58 UTC) announced an air raid alert in the Zaporizhzhia region. This alert was called off at (12:36 UTC).
   • Assessment: Confirms the elevated threat level in the region, consistent with the reported activity of Russian tactical aviation. The all-clear suggests the immediate threat has passed, but vigilance remains crucial.

4. CRUISE MISSILE REPORTED NEAR VOSKRESENSKE AND KAPUSTYNE (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Nikolaevskiy Vanyok: (11:47-11:48) Reports a cruise missile moving towards Voskresenske, and then towards Kapustyne.
   • Assessment: This indicates the use of long-range missiles.

5. CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):

   • Военкор Котенок (11:53 UTC) reports on the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) direction, claiming:
     • Russian attacks on Ukrainian positions on the eastern outskirts of Malynivka.
     • Russian forces regaining control of Vodyane Druhe.
     • Russian advances towards Tarasivka and Zelene Pole from the Baranovka area.
     • Ukrainian counterattacks from Nova Poltavka and Malynivka.
     • Ongoing fierce fighting for Yelyzavetivka.
   • Assessment: These claims require independent verification. However, they suggest continued and intense fighting in the Pokrovsk direction, with both sides making offensive and counter-offensive moves. The control of these settlements is strategically important for controlling supply routes and tactical positions.

6. CLAIMED SHOOTING DOWN OF MISSILE (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Nikolaevskiy Vanyok: (11:52 UTC) reports on successful targeting of a missile.
   • Assessment: Indication of active defenses.

7. RUSSIAN FUNDRAISING CAMPAIGN (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (12:04 UTC) shows a fundraising campaign for a UAZ "Fermer".
   • Assessment: This is evidence of resource gathering for military purposes.

8. ALLEGED ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT ON ZELENSKY (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, PROPAGANDA):

   • Alex Parker Returns: (12:04) Showed a video of an alleged assassination squad, claiming it was from 2022.
   • Assessment: Propaganda, the video is a training exercise.

9. ZAPORIZHZHIA AND KRASNODAR AIR ALERTS (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Дневник Десантника🇷🇺: (12:04 UTC) announced an alert in Zaporizhzhia, and warnings for potential attacks from Dnipropetrovsk in Krasnodar.
   • Assessment: Consistent with reports of activity.

10. CLAIMED RUSSIAN CYBER OPERATIONS (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • Colonelcassad (12:07) reports on US cyber operations against foreign nations, and against its own citizens.
    • Assessment: This has implications on military operations, but is not a change.

11. REPORTED INFORMATION ON COUNTERINTELLIGENCE (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, HIGH PRIORITY): * КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno (12:07) Reports that a high ranked SBU official, Dmytro Kozyura, was a Russian spy, citing Butusov's sources. DeepState (12:36) and Военкор Котенок (12:16) confirm. * Assessment: This would have had severe implications if true. Confirmed report of espionage and arrest.

12. RUSSIAN MILITARY CLAIMS (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):

• Басурин о главном: (12:16 UTC) reported that 6 people have been wounded by Ukrainian shelling in Horlivka.
  • Assessment: This requires verification, but indicates the continuation of shelling

13. DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS IN KYIV (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • РБК-Україна: (12:24 UTC) Reports that, due to enemy attacks, gasified buildings in Obolon have been damaged.
    • Assessment: Indication of property damage.

14. UKRAINIAN CLAIMS ON NATO (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • РБК-Україна: (12:18 UTC) Reports that, according to Rutte, NATO will respond severely should Russia attack.
    • Оперативний ЗСУ: (12:35 UTC) Reports that Rutte states many of Ukraine's allies are willing to provide Ukraine with all they need to succeed.
    • Assessment: Confirmation of the ongoing support.

Updated Situation Summary

• IMMINENT AIR THREAT (SOUTHEASTERN UKRAINE, EXTREME PRIORITY): The confirmed activity of Russian tactical aviation in the south-eastern direction signals an imminent threat of airstrikes. This is the highest priority and requires immediate action. The air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia was called off, suggesting the immediate threat has passed, but high alert remains essential.
• POTENTIAL RUSSIAN ADVANCES (REQUIRES VERIFICATION, HIGH PRIORITY): The claimed Russian advances near Vremivka and in the Pokrovsk direction, if confirmed, represent significant shifts in the battlefield situation.
• CONTINUED FIGHTING ACROSS MULTIPLE FRONTS (HIGH PRIORITY): Reports continue to indicate active clashes and engagements across various axes, including the Pokrovsk direction.
• MISSILE ACTIVITY (CONFIRMED): The reported cruise missile near Voskresenske confirms the ongoing threat of long-range strikes.
• PROPAGANDA AND DISINFORMATION CONTINUE (HIGH PRIORITY): Both sides continue to engage in information warfare.
• CONFIRMED ESPIONAGE WITHIN SBU (HIGH PRIORITY): The reported, and now confirmed, arrest of a high-ranking SBU official for espionage is a significant development, demonstrating successful Ukrainian counterintelligence efforts.
• REPORTED CASUALTIES FROM SHELLING (HIGH PRIORITY): The claim of 6 wounded in Horlivka, if confirmed, highlights the human cost of continued shelling.
• REPORTED DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS IN KYIV (HIGH PRIORITY): The report of damage to gasified buildings indicates property damage and potential disruption of essential services.

Updated Recommendations

1. MAINTAIN HIGH AIR DEFENSE READINESS (SOUTHEASTERN UKRAINE, EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Maintain a high state of readiness for air defense assets in the south-eastern regions (Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, potentially Kherson) to counter the ongoing threat of airstrikes, even though the immediate alert has been lifted.
   • Prioritize protection of critical infrastructure, troop concentrations, and population centers.
   • Maintain warnings to ground forces and civilian populations, and ensure that they can be reactivated rapidly.

2. VERIFY REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Utilize all available intelligence resources (satellite imagery, drone reconnaissance, human intelligence) to confirm or refute the claimed Russian advances near Vremivka and in the Pokrovsk direction.
   • Assess the impact of any confirmed advances on Ukrainian defensive lines and strategic positions.

3. MAINTAIN VIGILANCE ACROSS ALL FRONTS (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Continue to monitor all areas of active fighting and be prepared for potential offensives or counter-offensives.
   • Reinforce defensive positions where necessary.

4. COUNTER-PROPAGANDA AND DISINFORMATION EFFORTS (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Continue to actively monitor and counter disinformation campaigns from all sides.
   • Provide accurate and timely information to the public and international partners.

5. INVESTIGATE AND ADDRESS SBU ESPIONAGE CASE (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Thoroughly investigate the extent of the compromised information and take steps to mitigate the damage.
   • Review security protocols within the SBU to prevent future breaches.

6. ASSESS DAMAGE AND PROVIDE ASSISTANCE (HIGH PRIORITY):

• Assess the damage to buildings in Kyiv and provide necessary assistance to affected residents. * Verify and address the reported casualties in Horlivka.

7. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT, with priorities adjusted as indicated above. The situation has escalated with the imminent threat of airstrikes in south-eastern Ukraine, requiring immediate and decisive action. The reported Russian advances, if confirmed, will further complicate the situation. The confirmed espionage case within the SBU and the reported casualties and damage require immediate attention.