Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 12, 2025, 12:08 UTC

Changes and New Information (11:38 UTC - 12:08 UTC)

1. AIR ACTIVITY (SOUTH-EASTERN DIRECTION, EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (12:00 UTC) reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the south-eastern direction, with a threat of the use of air-launched weapons.
   • Assessment: This is a significant threat escalation, indicating potential imminent airstrikes. The south-eastern direction likely encompasses the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions, and potentially Kherson. This requires immediate deployment of air defense assets and warnings to ground forces.

2. RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR VREMIVKA (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):

   • ТАСС (12:06 UTC), citing Rogov, claims Russian forces have advanced west of liberated Vremivka towards Novosilka (on the border of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk regions), liberating around 9 sq km of territory.
   • Assessment: This requires verification from independent sources. The claimed location is strategically important as it sits at the junction of three key regions. If confirmed, this represents a notable Russian advance and potential pressure on Ukrainian defenses in this area.

3. ZAPORIZHZHIA AIR RAID ALERT (ACTIVE, EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (11:58 UTC) announced an air raid alert in the Zaporizhzhia region.
   • Assessment: Confirms the elevated threat level in the region, consistent with the reported activity of Russian tactical aviation.

4. CRUISE MISSILE REPORTED NEAR VOSKRESENSKE AND KAPUSTYNE (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Nikolaevskiy Vanyok: (11:47-11:48) Reports a cruise missile moving towards Voskresenske, and then towards Kapustyne.
   • Assessment: This indicates the use of long-range missiles.

5. CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):

   • Военкор Котенок (11:53 UTC) reports on the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) direction, claiming:
     • Russian attacks on Ukrainian positions on the eastern outskirts of Malynivka.
     • Russian forces regaining control of Vodyane Druhe.
     • Russian advances towards Tarasivka and Zelene Pole from the Baranovka area.
     • Ukrainian counterattacks from Nova Poltavka and Malynivka.
     • Ongoing fierce fighting for Yelyzavetivka.
   • Assessment: These claims require independent verification. However, they suggest continued and intense fighting in the Pokrovsk direction, with both sides making offensive and counter-offensive moves. The control of these settlements is strategically important for controlling supply routes and tactical positions.

6. CLAIMED SHOOTING DOWN OF MISSILE (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Nikolaevskiy Vanyok: (11:52 UTC) reports on successful targeting of a missile.
   • Assessment: Indication of active defenses.

7. RUSSIAN FUNDRAISING CAMPAIGN (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (12:04 UTC) shows a fundraising campaign for a UAZ "Fermer".
   • Assessment: This is evidence of resource gathering for military purposes.

8. ALLEGED ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT ON ZELENSKY (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, PROPAGANDA):

   • Alex Parker Returns: (12:04) Showed a video of an alleged assassination squad, claiming it was from 2022.
   • Assessment: Propaganda, the video is a training exercise.

9. ZAPORIZHZHIA AND KRASNODAR AIR ALERTS (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Дневник Десантника🇷🇺: (12:04 UTC) announced an alert in Zaporizhzhia, and warnings for potential attacks from Dnipropetrovsk in Krasnodar.
   • Assessment: Consistent with reports of activity.

10. CLAIMED RUSSIAN CYBER OPERATIONS (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • Colonelcassad (12:07) reports on US cyber operations against foreign nations, and against its own citizens.
    • Assessment: This has implications on military operations, but is not a change.

11. REPORTED INFORMATION ON COUNTERINTELLIGENCE (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, HIGH PRIORITY): * КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno (12:07) Reports that a high ranked SBU official, Dmytro Kozyura, was a Russian spy, citing Butusov's sources. * Assessment: This would have had severe implications if true.

Updated Situation Summary

• IMMINENT AIR THREAT (SOUTHEASTERN UKRAINE, EXTREME PRIORITY): The confirmed activity of Russian tactical aviation in the south-eastern direction, coupled with the air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia, signals an imminent threat of airstrikes. This is the highest priority and requires immediate action.
• POTENTIAL RUSSIAN ADVANCES (REQUIRES VERIFICATION, HIGH PRIORITY): The claimed Russian advances near Vremivka and in the Pokrovsk direction, if confirmed, represent significant shifts in the battlefield situation.
• CONTINUED FIGHTING ACROSS MULTIPLE FRONTS (HIGH PRIORITY): Reports continue to indicate active clashes and engagements across various axes, including the Pokrovsk direction.
• MISSILE ACTIVITY (CONFIRMED): The reported cruise missile near Voskresenske confirms the ongoing threat of long-range strikes.
• PROPAGANDA AND DISINFORMATION CONTINUE (HIGH PRIORITY): Both sides continue to engage in information warfare.

Updated Recommendations

1. IMMEDIATE AIR DEFENSE READINESS (SOUTHEASTERN UKRAINE, EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Deploy all available air defense assets to the south-eastern regions (Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, potentially Kherson) to counter the imminent threat of airstrikes.
   • Prioritize protection of critical infrastructure, troop concentrations, and population centers.
   • Issue immediate warnings to ground forces and civilian populations to take shelter.

2. VERIFY REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Utilize all available intelligence resources (satellite imagery, drone reconnaissance, human intelligence) to confirm or refute the claimed Russian advances near Vremivka and in the Pokrovsk direction.
   • Assess the impact of any confirmed advances on Ukrainian defensive lines and strategic positions.

3. MAINTAIN VIGILANCE ACROSS ALL FRONTS (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Continue to monitor all areas of active fighting and be prepared for potential offensives or counter-offensives.
   • Reinforce defensive positions where necessary.

4. COUNTER-PROPAGANDA AND DISINFORMATION EFFORTS (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Continue to actively monitor and counter disinformation campaigns from all sides.
   • Provide accurate and timely information to the public and international partners.

5. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT, with priorities adjusted as indicated above. The situation has escalated with the imminent threat of airstrikes in south-eastern Ukraine, requiring immediate and decisive action. The reported Russian advances, if confirmed, will further complicate the situation.