Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 12, 2025, 11:38 UTC

Changes and New Information (11:09 UTC - 11:38 UTC)

1. ALLEGED INSTRUCTIONS TO RUSSIAN SOLDIERS REGARDING UKRAINIAN POWS (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, HIGHLY SENSITIVE):

   • Alex Parker Returns (11:09 UTC) claims, in light of Zelensky's alleged plans to send 18-24 year olds to the front, that young Ukrainian POWs should not be taken prisoner. Claims that such POWs should be financially exploited and then their bodies sold back to their families.
   • Assessment: This is a highly disturbing and inflammatory claim, directly advocating for war crimes. It requires immediate and careful attention. If true, it represents a severe violation of international law and human rights. The source is known for extreme rhetoric, so the claim's veracity is questionable, but the seriousness of the allegation demands investigation.

2. CLAIMED TRUMP INITIATIVE FOR PEACE TALKS (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):

   • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (11:12 UTC) claims, citing The New York Times, that Trump has secretly assigned Steven Witkoff a role in peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. Claims Witkoff visited Moscow on February 11 to retrieve an American teacher and held talks with "close allies of Putin." Also claims discussions with Saudi Arabia and Qatar regarding mediation.
   • Assessment: This requires thorough verification from independent sources. While the claim aligns with previous statements by Trump regarding his ability to negotiate a peace deal, the specific details about Witkoff's role and his visit to Moscow are unconfirmed. This is a potentially significant development, but caution is needed until independent confirmation is obtained.

3. CLAIMED POOR CONDITIONS OF RUSSIAN SOLDIERS (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Шеф Hayabusa (11:12 UTC) Showed a video of an emaciated man laying on the ground, claiming to be an "orc".
   • Assessment: The video, if depicting what is claimed, highlights humanitarian concerns. The situation will be further investigated, and the relevant strategic implications considered.

4. UKRAINIAN AGRICULTURE (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, NOT DIRECTLY MILITARY, BUT WITH LONG-TERM IMPLICATIONS):

• RBK-Ukraine: Reports on crops, mentioning that pests will likely be more aggressive, and that Ukraine should start to grow yams, asparagus, artichoke, sweet potatoes, ginger, turmeric, and some citrus fruits.
• Assessment: This is likely to influence strategic decisions in the long term, but is not relevant in the short term.

5. FUNDING FOR EXTREMISM (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • TACC: Reports that the Duma has passed a law imposing fines for funding extremism.
   • Assessment: This is not relevant to the military update.

6. RUSSIAN SOLDIERS SENT TO NORTH KOREA FOR REHABILITATION (REPORTED):

   • МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ I Новости I Срочники: Reports that Russian soldiers were sent to North Korea for rehabilitation.
   • Assessment: This shows a potential increase in military support and/or alliance between Russia and North Korea.

7. UKRAINIAN AIR FORCE COMMAND REPORTS (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Оперативний ЗСУ: Reports on air defense.
   • Assessment: This is an indication of active engagement.

8. RUSSIAN MINISTRY OF DEFENSE REPORT (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • MoD Russia (11:15 UTC) provides a detailed report claiming significant Ukrainian losses in the Kursk region, including personnel, tanks (including a Leopard), IFVs (including a Bradley), APCs, artillery, and other equipment. Claims to have repelled attempted incursions.
   • Assessment: This is a standard report from the Russian MoD, and the figures are likely inflated. However, the report does confirm ongoing fighting in the Kursk region, and the claimed destruction of Western-supplied equipment (Leopard and Bradley) is noteworthy if true. Independent verification is required.

9. CLAIMED UKRAINIAN LOSSES IN KURSK REGION (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):

   • Colonelcassad: Shows a summary of the alleged Ukrainian losses in the Kursk region.
   • Assessment: Likely propaganda.

10. RUSSIAN BASE IN SUDAN (CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

    • Рыбарь (11:16 UTC) reports on the agreement, noting the long history of attempts to establish a Russian naval base in Port Sudan, and the potential for this to significantly expand Russian influence in Africa and provide a presence in a key shipping area.
    • Assessment: This is a strategic development.

11. ALLEGED COUNTER-DRONE TACTICS BY RUSSIAN FORCES (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):

    • Два майора (11:07 UTC) posted a video, caption claiming to show Russian soldiers shooting down Ukrainian FPV drones.
    • Assessment: This is an indication of tactics, needs further verification.

12. ALLEGED RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, PROPAGANDA):

    • Шеф Hayabusa (11:08 UTC) Showed a video, mocking Russian propaganda.
    • Assessment: Propaganda.

13. CLAIMED ARREST OF SBU OFFICIAL (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны: Reports on the arrest of the head of the Anti-Terrorist Center of SBU.
    • Assessment: This has potential implications, but is not a change in the situation.

14. RUSSIAN FUNDRAISING CAMPAIGN (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, PROPAGANDA):

    • Поддубный (10:56 UTC) shows a fundraising campaign for the Russian Military.
    • Assessment: Propaganda, but does show the need for Russia to collect resources.

15. CLAIMED STRIKE ON FOREIGN MERCENARIES (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):

• Дневник Десантника: Reports on a strike in Kryvyi Rih.
• Assessment: Needs further verification, but if true could be a significant development.

16. CLAIMED SUCCESSFUL UKRAINIAN STRIKES (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • Nikolaevskiy Vanyok: Reports on the destruction of a R-330Zh "Zhitel" EW system and an MSTA-B howitzer.
    • Assessment: Needs verification, but this is consistent.

17. UKRAINIAN DRONE THREAT IN SUMY REGION (UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Reports on drone activity.
    • Assessment: Consistent activity.

18. CLAIMED RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, PROPAGANDA):

    • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (11:49 UTC) Mocks alleged Russian propaganda.
    • Assessment: Propaganda.

19. CLAIMED ARTILLERY STRIKES ON MORTAR POSITIONS (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • Kotsnews (11:04 UTC) Reports on the destruction of mortar positions on the Konstantinovsky direction.
    • Assessment: This is consistent with previous reports.

20. CLAIMED SHOIGU STATEMENTS (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • TACC: Reports on Shoigu's statements.
    • Assessment: This is consistent with previous reports.

21. CLAIMED DRONE STRIKES (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА: Reports on drone strikes.
    • Assessment: This is consistent with previous reports.

22. PROPAGANDA (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, PROPAGANDA):

    • Alex Parker Returns: Propaganda
    • Assessment: Propaganda.

23. PROPAGANDA (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, PROPAGANDA):

    • Старше Эдды: Shows a sniper video, and claims it's from a documentary.
    • Assessment: Propaganda.

24. ATTACK ON UKRAINIAN SERVICEMAN (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • Оперативний ЗСУ: Reports on an attack on a serviceman.
    • Assessment: This situation needs consideration.

25. CLAIMED ATTACK ON CIVILIAN BUILDING (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

• Colonelcassad (10:48 UTC) showed pictures of destroyed buildings, claiming they were the result of an attack on Kyiv.
• Assessment: This needs verification.

26. UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT SPEECH SUMMARY (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • РБК-Україна (10:49 UTC) provides a summary of a Zelensky interview.
    • Assessment: Highlights key concerns and policy positions.

27. CLAIMED RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • Liveuamap Source (10:44 UTC) reports on Russian airstrikes.
    • Assessment: Indicates ongoing air activity.

28. CLAIMED CLASHES (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • Multiple Liveuamap Source messages report on clashes at various locations.
    • Assessment: Confirms ongoing fighting at multiple fronts.

29. CLAIMED ARREST (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны: Reports on an arrest, claiming that a high-ranked officer was an agent of the FSB.
    • Assessment: Needs verification.

30. DRONE ATTACKS POLOZHSKY DIRECTION (REPORTED):

    • voin_dv: Reports on drone attacks, including the use of thermal imagery to target infantry.
    • Assessment: Consistent.

31. ALLEGED ATROCITY IN NIKOLAEVO-DARYINO (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES URGENT INVESTIGATION):

    • Басурин о главном (10:42 UTC) reports on civilian casualties in Nikolaevo-Daryino.
    • Assessment: Further investigation required.

32. RUSSIAN AND SUDANESE SOURCES CONFIRM AGREEMENT (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • TACC: Reports on agreement between Russia and Sudan.
    • Assessment: Confirms.

33. CLAIMED ATTACK ON CIVILIAN BUILDING (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

• Colonelcassad (10:48 UTC) showed pictures of destroyed buildings, claiming they were the result of an attack on Kyiv.
• Assessment: This needs verification.

34. ARTILLERY ATTACK (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

• Kadyrov_95: Reports on an artillery attack.
• Assessment: This indicates artillery activity.

35. FIGHTING ON NOVOPAVLOVSK DIRECTION (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

• Colonelcassad: Reports on the situation.
• Assessment: Indicates fighting, needs confirmation.

36. CLAIMED COUNTER-DRONE TACTICS BY RUSSIAN FORCES (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):

    • Два майора (11:07 UTC) posted a video, caption claiming to show Russian soldiers shooting down Ukrainian FPV drones.
    • Assessment: This is an indication of tactics, needs further verification.

37. CLAIMED DRONE STRIKE (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, PROPAGANDA):

    • ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦: Showed a video of an alleged strike.
    • Assessment: Propaganda, but confirms drone capabilities.

38. CLAIMED ROCKET STRIKE (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

• Воин DV: Reports on rocket strikes.
• Assessment: Indicates activity, needs confirmation.

39. CLAIMED ATTACK ON MEDIA CHANNELS (REPORTED):

• ASTRA: Reports on an alleged attack on media channels.
• Assessment: Needs verification.

40. CLAIMED DRONE STRIKE (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

• БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС: Showed a video of an alleged attack on logistics.
• Assessment: Indicates logistics targets, needs confirmation.

Updated Situation Summary

• EXTREME PRIORITY: INVESTIGATE CLAIMS OF INSTRUCTIONS TO MISTREAT UKRAINIAN POWS: The reported directive to Russian soldiers to not take young Ukrainian POWs and to extort their families is a grave allegation requiring immediate investigation and international condemnation if verified.
• POTENTIAL DIPLOMATIC DEVELOPMENT (REQUIRES VERIFICATION): The claimed secret assignment of Steven Witkoff by Trump to facilitate peace talks between Russia and Ukraine needs urgent independent confirmation. This is potentially a major shift in the diplomatic landscape.
• CONTINUED FIGHTING IN KURSK REGION (CONFIRMED, HIGH PRIORITY): The Russian MoD report, while likely inflated, confirms ongoing military operations in the Kursk region. The claimed destruction of Western-supplied equipment needs independent verification.
• CONFIRMED AGREEMENT FOR RUSSIAN NAVAL BASE IN SUDAN (HIGH PRIORITY): Multiple sources confirm the agreement, highlighting a strategically important development with long-term implications for Russian influence in the Red Sea region and Africa.
• ONGOING AIR AND DRONE THREATS (EXTREME PRIORITY): Reports continue to indicate air raid alerts and drone activity, particularly in the Sumy region. Air defenses remain a critical priority.
• ONGOING FIGHTING ACROSS MULTIPLE FRONTS (HIGH PRIORITY): Reports of clashes continue across numerous axes, highlighting the widespread nature of the conflict.
• PROPAGANDA AND DISINFORMATION CONTINUE (HIGH PRIORITY): Both sides continue to engage in propaganda and disinformation efforts, requiring constant vigilance and critical assessment of information.

Updated Recommendations

1. URGENTLY INVESTIGATE CLAIMS REGARDING TREATMENT OF UKRAINIAN POWS (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Immediately launch an independent international investigation into the alleged directive to Russian soldiers regarding the mistreatment and killing of young Ukrainian POWs.
   • Coordinate with international human rights organizations and the International Criminal Court.
   • Gather any available intelligence to corroborate or refute the claim.

2. VERIFY CLAIMS OF TRUMP-INITIATED PEACE TALKS (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Utilize independent intelligence sources to confirm or refute the reported assignment of Steven Witkoff and his alleged activities in Moscow.
   • Contact US government officials to verify the claims.
   • Monitor any statements from the parties involved (Trump, Witkoff, Russian officials).

3. MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT FOR AIR DEFENSES AND DRONE THREATS (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Continue to prioritize air defense readiness across Ukraine, with a specific focus on the Sumy region due to reported drone threats.
   • Deploy appropriate detection and interception assets.

4. ASSESS IMPLICATIONS OF CONFIRMED RUSSIA-SUDAN NAVAL BASE AGREEMENT (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Gather detailed intelligence on the terms of the agreement, the planned capabilities of the base, and the timeline for its establishment.
   • Analyze the potential impact on regional security, maritime traffic, and power projection in the Red Sea and beyond.

5. CONTINUE MONITORING AND COUNTERING PROPAGANDA (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Maintain a robust effort to identify, analyze, and counter disinformation and propaganda from all sides.
   • Disseminate accurate and verified information to the public and international partners.

6. VERIFY RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF UKRAINIAN LOSSES IN KURSK (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Utilize independent sources of information to verify.

7. ADDRESS CONCERNS ABOUT CONSCRIPTION AND RECRUITMENT (MEDIUM PRIORITY): Address potential concerns about conscription and recruitment, to maintain morale and operational efficiency.

8. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT, with priorities adjusted as indicated. The situation remains highly dynamic, with the most urgent priorities being the investigation of potential war crimes, verifying diplomatic developments, and maintaining air defense readiness.