Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 12, 2025, 10:38 UTC

Changes and New Information (10:08 UTC - 10:38 UTC)

1. GUIDED BOMB LAUNCHES ON KHARKIV REGION (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported launches of guided aerial bombs on the Kharkiv region (10:08 UTC).
   • Assessment: This expands the area of ongoing air attacks, confirming the continued threat beyond Donetsk and Sumy.

2. RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKE NEAR PREDTECHYNE (CLAIMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition provides video footage claiming to show a drone strike by the 27th Artillery Regiment targeting a Ukrainian mortar position near Predtechyne, on the Konstantynivka direction (10:10 UTC).
   • Assessment: This aligns with the broader pattern of Russian counter-battery efforts, targeting Ukrainian artillery assets. The claim of a successful strike needs independent verification.

3. PRISONER EXCHANGE CONFIRMED (CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • TASS (10:10 UTC) reports that Dmitry Peskov confirmed that a Russian prisoner held in the US will be returned in exchange for Mark Fogel. Alex Parker Returns speculates the Russian is Alexander Vinnik.
   • Assessment: Confirms the ongoing, albeit limited, diplomatic engagement between the US and Russia. The identity of the returned Russian citizen, if confirmed as Vinnik, could have implications for cybercrime investigations.

4. PESKOV ON TERRITORIAL EXCHANGE (CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • TASS, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, РБК-Україна, and Alex Parker Returns all report (10:12 - 10:18 UTC) that Dmitry Peskov stated Russia will not discuss exchanging territories with Ukraine, and that any Ukrainian military units on Russian-claimed territory will be "destroyed and expelled".
   • Assessment: This reiterates Russia's firm stance against any territorial concessions. It signals continued military pressure to achieve complete control over claimed territories.

5. ZELENSKYY ON RARE EARTH METALS (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • РБК-Україна provides video (10:14 UTC) of Zelenskyy discussing Ukrainian rare earth minerals (uranium, titanium). He emphasizes the importance of protecting these resources and preventing them from falling into Russian hands or being transferred to countries like Iran, North Korea, or China. He states Ukraine is open to investment from Western partners on mutually beneficial terms.
   • Assessment: This clarifies Ukraine's position on resource control and its desire for mutually beneficial partnerships with Western countries, rather than simply handing over resources as payment for aid (as suggested by Trump).

6. ALLEGED UKRAINIAN LOSSES ON KURSK DIRECTION (CLAIMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

• TASS (10:14 UTC) claims that Ukrainian forces lost over 390 personnel, two tanks, and 10 armored fighting vehicles on the Kursk direction in the past day.
• Assessment: These claims are consistent with Russian attempts to highlight Ukrainian casualties but require independent verification.

7. ANIMATED STRIKE MAP (RUSSIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):

   • Colonelcassad provides an animated map (10:18 UTC) depicting alleged Russian strikes across Ukraine from February 11-12, 2025.
   • Assessment: This provides a visual representation of claimed Russian strike activity, but its accuracy is unverified. It highlights a high volume of strikes across a broad area, with particular focus on the eastern front and border regions.

8. CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR VELYKA NOVOSILKA (CLAIMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Два майора (10:27 UTC) claims Russian forces have "cleared" Ukrainian forces from two strongholds on the Orikhiv section and conducted fire strikes near Piatykhatky, Orikhiv, and Mala Tokmachka. Claimed Ukrainian losses include 2 armored vehicles, 4 pickups, 1 MLRS, ~50 personnel, and 2 mortar positions. Claims of a Russian advance north of Vremivka.
   • Assessment: These claims need independent verification.

9. ALLEGED KILLINGS IN NIKOLAEVO-DARYINO (CLAIMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Дневник Десантника (10:33 UTC) claims Ukrainian forces killed almost all the male residents of Nikolaevo-Daryino in Kursk Oblast after its liberation.
   • Assessment: This requires immediate and thorough investigation, potentially as a war crime. The claim is made by a Russian source and may be propaganda, but the alleged severity warrants independent verification.

10. CLAIMED STRIKE ON KURAKHOVO DIRECTION (CLAIMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • Kotsnews: (10:29 UTC) reports that drones were able to destroy 120mm mortars, anti-tank grenade launchers, and drone antennas on the Kurakhovo front.
    • Assessment: These claims require independent verification.

11. CLAIMED STRIKE ON PISHCHANE (CLAIMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦: (10:28 UTC) reports that Ukrainian forces were attacking Russian positions in Pishchane.
    • Assessment: These claims require independent verification.

12. CONFIRMED MEETING (UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • РБК-Україна: (10:25 UTC) reports the first meeting of Umierov and the new US Defense Minister, Pete Hegseth.
    • Assessment: Provides insights into the relationship.

Updated Situation Summary

• CONTINUED AIR ATTACKS (EXTREME PRIORITY): Confirmed launches of guided aerial bombs on the Kharkiv region, expanding the area under threat. This, combined with previous reports, indicates widespread Russian air activity across Ukraine.
• RUSSIAN ADVANCES (UNCLEAR, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Multiple reports from Russian sources claim advances in several locations (Orikhiv, Vremivka, Kurakhovo, Pishchane). Independent verification is still a top priority.
• CONFIRMED PRISONER EXCHANGE (HIGH PRIORITY): Confirmed exchange of Mark Fogel for a Russian prisoner held in the US. This indicates continued, albeit limited, diplomatic engagement.
• RUSSIAN STANCE ON TERRITORY (CONFIRMED, HIGH PRIORITY): Russia reiterates it will not discuss exchanging territory, signaling continued military pressure to achieve complete control over claimed areas.
• UKRAINIAN RESOURCE CONTROL (CLARIFIED, HIGH PRIORITY): Zelenskyy clarifies Ukraine's desire for mutually beneficial partnerships with Western countries for developing rare earth minerals, rather than simply handing them over as payment for aid.
• ALLEGED WAR CRIMES (REQUIRES INVESTIGATION, HIGH PRIORITY): Claims of Ukrainian forces killing civilians in Nikolaevo-Daryino (Kursk Oblast) require immediate investigation.
• SBU INTERNAL INVESTIGATION (CONFIRMED, HIGH PRIORITY): The SBU arrested a high-ranking official for treason, confirming internal security efforts and highlighting ongoing counterintelligence operations.
• ONGOING MEDICAL TRAINING (CONFIRMED, MEDIUM PRIORITY): Medical personnel in Zaporizhzhia region underwent training in reconstructive surgery, indicating efforts to improve trauma care capabilities.
• MEETING OF UMIEROV AND HEGSETH (CONFIRMED, HIGH PRIORITY): The meeting between the Ukrainian and US defense ministers is a significant diplomatic event.

Updated Recommendations

1. MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT FOR AIR DEFENSES (Ukraine-Wide, EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Maintain maximum readiness for air defense systems across the country, given the continued and widespread threat of missile and drone attacks, now including the Kharkiv region.

2. VERIFY RUSSIAN ADVANCE CLAIMS (Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Kursk, HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Utilize independent intelligence sources to confirm or refute the reported Russian advances in multiple locations.

3. INVESTIGATE ALLEGED WAR CRIMES IN NIKOLAEVO-DARYINO (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Immediately launch an investigation into the claims of Ukrainian forces killing civilians in Nikolaevo-Daryino. Gather evidence, interview any survivors, and determine the facts. This is a potential war crime.

4. ASSESS IMPACT OF REPORTED STRIKES (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Verify and assess the impact of the numerous reported Russian strikes, prioritizing targets with potential strategic significance (e.g., mortar positions, military facilities).

5. MONITOR IMPLICATIONS OF PRISONER EXCHANGE (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Determine the identity of the returned Russian prisoner and assess any potential implications for cybercrime investigations or other security matters.

6. ANALYZE ZELENSKYY'S RESOURCE STATEMENTS (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Develop a strategy for engaging with Western partners on resource development, ensuring mutually beneficial terms and preventing exploitation by Russia or its allies.

7. SUPPORT SBU INTERNAL SECURITY EFFORTS (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Continue to provide resources and support to the SBU's counterintelligence operations to identify and neutralize any further internal threats.

8. ENHANCE MEDICAL CAPABILITIES (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Continue to provide training and resources to improve medical capabilities, particularly in trauma care and reconstructive surgery, in areas near the front lines.

9. MONITOR DEVELOPMENTS IN ARMENIA (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Continue to monitor the progress of Armenia's EU accession process and its potential impact on regional alliances.

10. ASSESS MEETING (HIGH PRIORITY):

    • Gather information on the meeting between Umierov and Hegseth, any promises of military or economic aid, and future cooperation.

11. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT, with priorities adjusted as indicated. The primary focus remains on responding to the ongoing air attacks, verifying claims of Russian advances, investigating potential war crimes, and addressing internal security threats.