Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 12, 2025, 10:08 UTC

Changes and New Information (09:38 UTC - 10:08 UTC)

1. RUSSIAN SNIPER OPERATIONS (PROPAGANDA, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Два майора & АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА presents a video ("ВДВ. ПРИЗРАКИ") purportedly showcasing the "cold-blooded and competent work" of Russian snipers. The video highlights sniper equipment, interviews with soldiers, and probable staged footage.
   • Assessment: Likely propaganda to boost morale and portray Russian forces as skilled and effective. The video's depiction of sniper operations in a snowy, forested area should be treated as unverified, but the emphasis on human intelligence (HUMINT) and counter-surveillance tactics is noteworthy.

2. UKRAINIAN PERSPECTIVE ON EU SENTIMENT (PROPAGANDA, BIASED SOURCE):

   • Alex Parker Returns presents a tweet from the official EU account. The image reveals a significant disconnect in sentiment.
   • Assesment: The EU needs to actively address this frustration and demonstrate how their actions are providing tangible benefits to Ukrainian security or humanitarian relief.

3. RUSSIAN MINISTRY OF DEFENSE REPORT (PROPAGANDA, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Colonelcassad & MoD Russia released a report of the Russian Ministry of Defense. The report shares statistics on losses of Ukrainian equipment, including: 12 HIMARS MLRS projectiles, 2 French-made Hammer guided aerial bombs, and 66 fixed-wing unmanned aerial vehicles.
   • Assessment: The report's goal is to present the Russian military in a positive light. All data should be verified with trusted sources.

4. RAMSTEIN MEETING (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • РБК-Україна shares a video on the first Ramstein meeting since Trump's election. The content in the video brings up the concern of the continued support to Ukraine from the United States, as well as the shifting of responsibility to European countries.
   • Assessment: The election of Donald Trump has introduced uncertainty about the future of U.S. involvement, requiring a careful assessment of U.S. intentions, a strengthened focus on European allies, and contingency planning to address potential shortfalls in aid.

5. CASUALTIES AT UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT'S OFFICE (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS & Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares a video of Zelenskyy discussing the early stages of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, including the potential assassination of Zelenskyy.
   • Assessment: The video provides insight into the early stages of the conflict. It highlights Russia's initial goals, the pressure on Ukraine to capitulate, and Zelenskyy's firm stance against ceding national interests.

6. UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSE (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine shares a video showcasing mobile fire groups in action.
   • Assessment: This provides a small morale boost.

7. RUSSIAN ADVANCES NEAR KURAKHOVO (CLAIMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Colonelcassad reports that Russian forces destroyed artillery of Ukrainian forces during fights near Kurakhovo.
   • Assessment: These claims require independent verification.

8. UKRAINE READY FOR NEGOTIATIONS (CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ I Новости I Срочники report Ukrainian Defense Minister Umerov's statement about readiness for negotiations, but only from a position of military strength.
   • Assessment: This confirms Ukraine's stance: negotiations are possible, but only when Ukraine has a strong military advantage.

9. RUSSIAN GROUP ROCKET STRIKE (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Colonelcassad & MoD Russia reported that Russian forces executed a strike on Ukraine's military-industrial complex. The strike specifically targeted workshops.
   • Assesment: Successful strike on Ukrainian military resources.

10. STRIKE IN MYKOLAIV REGION (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • Дневник Десантника🇷🇺: Reports that Russian forces hit a military warehouse in Stara Bohdanivka.

• Assessment: This shows efforts to degrade infrastructure.

Updated Situation Summary

• KYIV ATTACK AFTERMATH (EXTREME PRIORITY): Confirmed casualties (1 dead, 4 injured, including a child) and widespread damage across multiple districts. Iskander-M missiles were used. This confirms the severity of the earlier reported attack.
• ONGOING AIR ATTACK THREAT (EXTREME PRIORITY): Confirmed reports of guided bomb launches in Sumy and Donetsk. Ballistic missile threat continues in areas under air raid alert. This indicates continued, widespread Russian air activity.
• RUSSIAN ADVANCES (UNCLEAR, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Multiple reports of Russian advances in several locations, but independent verification is still needed.
• MILITARY RE-EXAMINATIONS EXTENDED (HIGH PRIORITY): The deadline for "partially fit" individuals to undergo medical re-examination is extended to June 5, 2025, confirming ongoing Ukrainian manpower needs.
• RUSSIAN SNIPER OPERATIONS (PROPAGANDA): Russian sources showcase sniper operations, likely for propaganda purposes.
• ZAPORIZHZHIA NPP STATUS (UNCLEAR): Russian-controlled ZNPP claims normal operations, but this is questionable.
• UKRAINE NEGOTIATIONS STANCE (CONFIRMED): Ukraine is open to negotiations, but only from a position of military strength.
• ARMENIA'S EU BID (SIGNIFICANT GEOPOLITICAL SHIFT): Armenia's parliament initiates the EU accession process, potentially reshaping regional alliances.
• ALLEGED SABOTAGE IN GERMANY (REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Claims of Russian sabotage against German military assets represent a potential escalation.
• FIGHTING NEAR KRASNOARMEISK (HIGH PRIORITY): Reports of continued, intense fighting in multiple locations.
• CLAIMED ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT (UNCLEAR): Claims of an assassination attempt on Zelenskyy, likely propaganda.
• RAMSTEIN MEETING (HIGH PRIORITY): Meeting in progress, potential changes from the United States.

Updated Recommendations

1. CONTINUE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT AND CASUALTY CONFIRMATION IN KYIV (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Thoroughly assess the damage in all affected districts. Prioritize confirming the full extent of casualties.
   • Determine the specific functions of the damaged buildings to understand the targeting strategy.

2. MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT FOR AIR DEFENSES (Ukraine-Wide, EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Maintain maximum readiness for air defense systems across the country, given the continued and widespread threat of missile and drone attacks. The Ukrainian Air Force is reporting ongoing threats.

3. VERIFY RUSSIAN ADVANCE CLAIMS (Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk, HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Utilize independent intelligence sources to confirm or refute the reported Russian advances.

4. ASSESS IMPACT OF REPORTED STRIKES (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Verify and assess the impact of the numerous reported Russian strikes. Prioritize targets with potential strategic significance (e.g., energy infrastructure, military facilities).

5. INVESTIGATE CLAIMS (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Attempt to independently verify claims about events. Seek information from Ukrainian sources and independent investigators.

6. MONITOR KURSK OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Increase surveillance of the Kursk Oblast border area, given previous drone attack.

7. MONITOR DRONE ACTIVITY (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Increase efforts to track and counter drone activity on both sides, given the increasing reliance on drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks.

8. ADDRESS ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGE (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Continue efforts to stabilize the power grid and restore gas supply to affected areas.

9. EXPEDITE MILITARY RE-EXAMINATIONS (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Ensure the process for re-examining "partially fit" individuals is streamlined and efficient to maximize potential manpower gains.

10. INVESTIGATE ALLEGED GERMAN SABOTAGE (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

    • Seek independent confirmation of the claims of Russian sabotage against German military assets.

11. MONITOR ARMENIA'S EU BID (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

    • Track the progress of Armenia's EU accession process and assess its potential impact on regional alliances and security dynamics.

12. ASSESS THE RAMSTEIN MEETING (HIGH PRIORITY)

    • Assess new commitments for support made by the group.

13. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT: Priorities are adjusted as indicated, with the continued focus on the air attack and ballistic missile threat, assessing the claims in Kursk Oblast and Germany, and monitoring the military re-examinations.