Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 12, 2025, 09:38 UTC

Changes and New Information (09:09 UTC - 09:38 UTC)

1. MILITARY RE-EXAMINATION DEADLINE EXTENDED (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Оперативний ЗСУ confirms the Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian Parliament) voted to extend the deadline for "partially fit" individuals (aged 25-60) to undergo military medical re-examination (ВЛК) until June 5, 2025.
   • Assessment: This provides more time for processing potential recruits, but also indicates ongoing manpower needs. Vereshchuk's statement that further extensions are unlikely suggests a push to finalize assessments.

2. RUSSIAN SNIPER OPERATIONS (PROPAGANDA, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА presents a video ("ВДВ. ПРИЗРАКИ") purportedly showcasing the "cold-blooded and competent work" of Russian snipers.
   • Assessment: Likely propaganda to boost morale and portray Russian forces as skilled and effective. The video's depiction of sniper operations in a snowy, forested area should be treated as unverified, but the emphasis on human intelligence (HUMINT) and counter-surveillance tactics is noteworthy.

3. GUIDED BOMB ATTACKS ON SUMY AND DONETSK (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs in Sumy and Donetsk regions.
   • Assessment: Continued Russian air activity targeting both regions, consistent with earlier reports.

4. KYIV ATTACK: DAMAGE REPORT AND CASUALTIES (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) confirms one death (a man born in 1985) and four injuries (including a 9-year-old child) from the night attack on Kyiv. Damage is reported in multiple districts: Holosiivskyi, Sviatoshynskyi, Obolonskyi, Dniprovskyi, and Pecherskyi. Fires are reportedly extinguished or localized as of 10:00 local time. Iskander-M missiles are confirmed as the weapon used.
   • Assessment: This provides crucial details on the consequences of the attack, confirming casualties and widespread damage. The use of Iskander-M missiles underscores the threat level.

5. RUSSIAN ADVANCES (CLAIMED, BIASED SOURCE):

   • ✙DeepState✙ reports Russian advances near Makiivka, Novosilka, Shevchenko, in Kotlyne, Andriivka, and Dachne.
   • Assessment: These claims require independent verification. DeepState is generally reliable, but it's important to cross-reference with other sources.

6. BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine warns of a threat of ballistic missile use in areas under air raid alert.
   • Assessment: Maintains the high alert level for air defenses across Ukraine.

7. ZAPORIZHZHIA NUCLEAR POWER PLANT UPDATE (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Два майора cites a statement from the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) claiming the plant is operating normally, with all six reactors in "cold shutdown." No safety violations are reported, and radiation levels are normal.
   • Assessment: This statement from the Russian-controlled ZNPP is intended to reassure, but its reliability is questionable given the ongoing conflict.

8. UKRAINE READY FOR NEGOTIATIONS, BUT FROM STRENGTH (CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • Multiple sources, including Alex Parker Returns and Два майора, report Ukrainian Defense Minister Umerov's statement about readiness for negotiations, but only from a position of military strength. The "Ramstein" meeting will focus on continued military supplies and developing Ukraine's defense industry.
   • Assessment: This confirms Ukraine's stance: negotiations are possible, but only when Ukraine has a strong military advantage.

9. FIGHTING NEAR KRASNOARMEISK (CLAIMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Дневник Десантника claims that Ukrainian forces killed two civilian women near Krasnoarmeisk, as they were trying to evacuate.
   • Assesment: Claims of deliberate targeting of civilians, especially those displaying white flags, represent potential war crimes.

10. CLAIMED RUSSIAN SABOTAGE IN GERMANY (CLAIMED, BIASED SOURCE):

    • ASTRA quotes German Vice-Admiral Jan Christian Kaack, claiming Russian saboteurs damaged Bundeswehr (German military) warships and attempted to infiltrate bases.
    • Assessment: This is a serious allegation that needs independent verification. If true, it represents a significant escalation of Russian activity against NATO members.

11. ARMENIA EU ACCESSION PROCESS (CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

    • ТАСС, ASTRA, and Два майора report that the Armenian Parliament voted to begin the process of joining the European Union.
    • Assessment: This marks a significant geopolitical shift, potentially further straining relations between Armenia and Russia.

12. ALLEGED ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT ON ZELENSKY (CLAIMED, BIASED SOURCE):

    • Alex Parker Returns, РБК-Україна claims that Zelensky survived an assassination attempt during the initial stage of the war.
    • Assesment: Possible propaganda to strengthen Ukrainian morale.

13. ELON MUSK CALLS FOR NATO REORGANIZATION (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • ТАСС reports that Elon Musk called for the reorganization of NATO.
    • Assesment: Possible propaganda to portray NATO as weak and disorganized.

14. RUSSIAN GROUP ROCKET STRIKE (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • ТАСС reported that Russian forces executed a strike on Ukraine's military-industrial complex.
    • Assesment: Successful strike on Ukrainian military resources.

15. UKRAINE EXTENDS RE-EXAMINATION PERIOD (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • РБК-Україна states that Ukrainian forces are extending the period of re-examination for those "limited fit" for service.
    • Assesment: Reinforcement of Ukrainian forces.

16. UKRAINIAN DRONE KILLS 2 WOMEN (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • Mash на Донбассе reports that Ukrainian forces killed 2 women with a drone.
    • Assesment: Claims of deliberate targeting of civilians, especially those displaying white flags, represent potential war crimes.

Updated Situation Summary

• KYIV ATTACK AFTERMATH (EXTREME PRIORITY): Confirmed casualties (1 dead, 4 injured, including a child) and widespread damage across multiple districts. Iskander-M missiles were used. This confirms the severity of the earlier reported attack.
• ONGOING AIR ATTACK THREAT (EXTREME PRIORITY): Confirmed reports of guided bomb launches in Sumy and Donetsk. Ballistic missile threat continues in areas under air raid alert. This indicates continued, widespread Russian air activity.
• RUSSIAN ADVANCES (UNCLEAR, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Multiple reports of Russian advances in several locations, but independent verification is still needed.
• MILITARY RE-EXAMINATIONS EXTENDED (HIGH PRIORITY): The deadline for "partially fit" individuals to undergo medical re-examination is extended to June 5, 2025, confirming ongoing Ukrainian manpower needs.
• RUSSIAN SNIPER OPERATIONS (PROPAGANDA): Russian sources showcase sniper operations, likely for propaganda purposes.
• ZAPORIZHZHIA NPP STATUS (UNCLEAR): Russian-controlled ZNPP claims normal operations, but this is questionable.
• UKRAINE NEGOTIATIONS STANCE (CONFIRMED): Ukraine is open to negotiations, but only from a position of military strength.
• ARMENIA'S EU BID (SIGNIFICANT GEOPOLITICAL SHIFT): Armenia's parliament initiates the EU accession process, potentially reshaping regional alliances.
• ALLEGED SABOTAGE IN GERMANY (REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Claims of Russian sabotage against German military assets represent a potential escalation.
• FIGHTING NEAR KRASNOARMEISK (HIGH PRIORITY): Reports of continued, intense fighting in multiple locations.
• CLAIMED ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT (UNCLEAR): Claims of an assassination attempt on Zelenskyy, likely propaganda.

Updated Recommendations

1. CONTINUE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT AND CASUALTY CONFIRMATION IN KYIV (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Thoroughly assess the damage in all affected districts. Prioritize confirming the full extent of casualties.
   • Determine the specific functions of the damaged buildings to understand the targeting strategy.

2. MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT FOR AIR DEFENSES (Ukraine-Wide, EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Maintain maximum readiness for air defense systems across the country, given the continued and widespread threat of missile and drone attacks. The Ukrainian Air Force is reporting ongoing threats.

3. VERIFY RUSSIAN ADVANCE CLAIMS (Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk, HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Utilize independent intelligence sources to confirm or refute the reported Russian advances.

4. ASSESS IMPACT OF REPORTED STRIKES (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Verify and assess the impact of the numerous reported Russian strikes. Prioritize targets with potential strategic significance (e.g., energy infrastructure, military facilities).

5. INVESTIGATE CLAIMS (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Attempt to independently verify claims about events. Seek information from Ukrainian sources and independent investigators.

6. MONITOR KURSK OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Increase surveillance of the Kursk Oblast border area, given previous drone attack.

7. MONITOR DRONE ACTIVITY (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Increase efforts to track and counter drone activity on both sides, given the increasing reliance on drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks.

8. ADDRESS ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGE (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Continue efforts to stabilize the power grid and restore gas supply to affected areas.

9. EXPEDITE MILITARY RE-EXAMINATIONS (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Ensure the process for re-examining "partially fit" individuals is streamlined and efficient to maximize potential manpower gains.

10. INVESTIGATE ALLEGED GERMAN SABOTAGE (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

    • Seek independent confirmation of the claims of Russian sabotage against German military assets.

11. MONITOR ARMENIA'S EU BID (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

    • Track the progress of Armenia's EU accession process and assess its potential impact on regional alliances and security dynamics.

12. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT: Priorities are adjusted as indicated, with the continued focus on the air attack and ballistic missile threat, assessing the claims in Kursk Oblast and Germany, and monitoring the military re-examinations.