Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 12, 2025, 08:38 UTC

Major Updates (08:08 UTC - 08:38 UTC)

1. KYIV STRIKE UPDATE: SIX ISKANDER-M MISSILES INTERCEPTED (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • РБК-Україна (08:25 UTC) reports that Ukrainian air defenses intercepted six Iskander-M ballistic missiles over Kyiv. This confirms earlier reports of a missile attack. The Head of the Kyiv City Military Administration (KMVA), Timur Tkachenko, confirms damage in multiple districts. The casualties reported earlier (one dead, four injured, including a 9-year-old child) remain confirmed. Fires are reported as "extinguished or localized" as of 10:00 local time.
   • Assessment: Successful interception of multiple ballistic missiles demonstrates the effectiveness of Kyiv's air defenses. However, the confirmed damage and casualties indicate that not all missiles were intercepted or that falling debris caused significant damage. The wide range of affected districts suggests a multi-pronged attack.

2. KURSK OBLAST: RYLSK ATTACKED BY DRONES (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Два майора (08:08 UTC) and ТАСС (08:22 UTC) report that two Ukrainian drones attacked the town of Rylsk in Kursk Oblast this morning. No casualties are reported. Damage includes broken windows in two houses and the local library, damage to a farm building, and disruption to power lines. Energy crews are reportedly working to restore power.
   • Assesment: Verified drone attack* targeting civilian infrastructure.

3. ZAPORIZHZHIA FRONT: RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR SEREBRYANOE (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Рыбарь (08:08 UTC) reports fighting near Serebryanoe (Срибное), with Ukrainian forces attempting to prevent a Russian advance towards Zaporizhzhia. Russian forces reportedly "cut off" a Ukrainian salient between Yasenev and Andreevka. Ukrainian forces are reportedly using BMP Bradley vehicles for fire raids and deploying assault groups. Russian forces have reportedly secured the T-05-15 highway, improving logistics between Yasenevo and Andreevka.
   • Assessment: Intense fighting continues on the Zaporizhzhia front. Russian claims of territorial gains require independent verification. The reported use of Bradley vehicles confirms continued Western military aid to Ukraine.

4. DONETSK FRONT: FIGHTING NEAR KOTLINO AND UDARNOE (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Военкор Котенок (08:32 UTC) reports that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian attempts to break through towards the southern outskirts of Kotlino, Zverevo, and Peschanoye. Ukrainian forces that entered the industrial zone of the mine in Peschanoye are claimed to be "almost completely destroyed." Russian forces are reportedly attacking near the southeastern outskirts of Kotlino, "restoring the situation." In Udarnoe, the eastern part is reportedly under Russian control, with fighting in the center and near the station. Russian forces are reportedly striking Ukrainian reserves at Mine #1 and Molodetskoye. Russian forces are reportedly continuing their offensive in the eastern part of Novosergievka.
   • Assessment: Active combat continues on the Donetsk front, with conflicting claims about control of specific areas.

5. KRASNOLYMAN DIRECTION: FIGHTING NEAR YAMPOLOVKA AND IVANOVKA (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Дневник Десантника (08:27 UTC) reports ongoing fighting on the outskirts of Yampolovka, with Russian forces expanding their control and pushing deeper into Ukrainian defenses. Ukrainian forces are reportedly increasing drone activity. Russian forces are reportedly pushing back Ukrainian forces south of Ivanovka, expanding the zone for an offensive towards Kolodezi. Russian forces are reportedly increasing fire on Ukrainian positions, depleting reserves.
   • Assesment: Russian forces expanding their control, Ukraine increases drone activity.

6. UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKES (VARIOUS):

   • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (08:04 UTC) shows a video that shows Ukrainian drone strikes targeting multiple Russian trucks, with the message that they are working to hinder logistics.
   • Народная милиция ДНР (08:04 UTC) claims that Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian Kirpi armored vehicle.
   • Два майора (07:58 UTC) claims that a Russian drone unit, eliminated a Ukrainian reconnaissance drone crew, following them to their control point.
   • Kotsnews (08:21 UTC) claims to show footage of attacks in the Pokrovsk direction.
   • Assesment: Increased drone warfare is a constant in the conflict.

7. RUSSIAN CLAIM: UKRAINIAN SOLDIER SURRENDERED (CLAIMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (08:09 UTC) claims to show a video of a captured Russian soldier, Vasily Ivanovich Kiselev.

8. UKRAINIAN FORCES RECRUITMENT (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • ✙DeepState✙ (08:13 UTC) shows an image recruiting for a new robotic unit within the 150th Separate Reconnaissance and Strike Battalion.

9. UKRAINIAN AIR FORCE ACTIVITY (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (08:11 UTC) reports a missile threat in areas with air raid alerts.
   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (08:12 UTC) warns about the activity of enemy tactical aviation in the eastern direction, reporting a threat of the use of aviation weapons for front-line areas.

10. ALLEGED ATROCITY IN NIKOLAEVO-DARYINO (CLAIMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • MoD Russia (08:13 UTC) claims that Russian forces liberated the settlement Nikolaevo-Daryino in the Kursk region. Claims that Ukrainian forces held the population as a hostage, using them as human shields.

Updated Situation Summary

• KYIV UNDER ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY): Confirmed interception of six Iskander-M missiles. Casualties and damage confirmed in multiple districts.
• RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES CONTINUE (HIGH PRIORITY): Multiple reports of Russian airstrikes across Ukraine. Colonelcassad provides a detailed list, including targets in Poltava, Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Kyiv, Kryvyi Rih, Zhytomyr, Kirovograd, Mykolaiv, and other regions. Various weapons reported used, including Kh-69, Geran drones, Iskander-M missiles, and UMPK guided bombs.
• KURSK REGION ATTACK (HIGH PRIORITY): Confirmed drone attack on Rylsk. No casualties reported. Damage to civilian infrastructure. Conflicting claims about the events in Nikolaevo-Daryino.
• INTENSE FIGHTING ON ZAPORIZHZHIA AND DONETSK FRONTS (HIGH PRIORITY): Reports of continued, intense fighting in multiple locations. Russian sources claim advances, but independent verification is needed.
• "RAMSTEIN" MEETING FOCUSES ON LONG-TERM SUPPORT (HIGH PRIORITY): The meeting in Brussels emphasizes sustained military aid and investment in Ukrainian defense production.
• INCREASED DRONE WARFARE (HIGH PRIORITY): Multiple reports of drone activity by both sides, targeting personnel, vehicles, and infrastructure.

Updated Recommendations

1. CONTINUE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT AND CASUALTY CONFIRMATION IN KYIV (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Thoroughly assess the damage in all affected districts. Prioritize verifying the full extent of casualties.
   • Determine the specific functions of the damaged buildings to understand the targeting strategy.

2. MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT FOR AIR DEFENSES (Ukraine-Wide, EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Maintain maximum readiness for air defense systems across the country, given the continued and widespread threat of missile and drone attacks. The Ukrainian Air Force is reporting ongoing threats.

3. VERIFY RUSSIAN ADVANCE CLAIMS (Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk, HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Utilize independent intelligence sources to confirm or refute the reported Russian advances in Serebryanoe, Kotlino, Udarnoe, and Novosergievka.

4. ASSESS IMPACT OF REPORTED STRIKES (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Verify and assess the impact of the numerous reported Russian strikes listed by Colonelcassad. Prioritize targets with potential strategic significance (e.g., energy infrastructure, military facilities).

5. INVESTIGATE NIKOLAEVO-DARYINO CLAIMS (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Attempt to independently verify the MoD Russia claims about events in Nikolaevo-Daryino. Seek information from Ukrainian sources and independent investigators.

6. MONITOR KURSK OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Increase surveillance of the Kursk Oblast border area, given the confirmed drone attack on Rylsk.

7. MONITOR DRONE ACTIVITY (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Increase efforts to track and counter drone activity on both sides, given the increasing reliance on drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks.

8. ADDRESS ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGE (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Continue efforts to stabilize the power grid and restore gas supply to affected areas. Operativnyi ZSU reports power restrictions for industry and businesses today.

9. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT: Priorities are adjusted as indicated, with the immediate focus on confirming details of the Kyiv strikes, verifying Russian claims of advances, and investigating the reports of attacks in Kursk Oblast. The situation remains highly dynamic and volatile, with active conflict and significant threats across multiple regions.