Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 12, 2025, 06:38 UTC

Major Updates (06:08 UTC - 06:38 UTC)

1. CONFIRMED: Ukrainian Air Defenses Intercept Significant Number of Missiles and Drones (OFFICIAL, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

   • Ukrainian Air Force (06:33 UTC), General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (06:35 UTC), and RBC-Ukraine (06:36 UTC) report that Ukrainian air defenses intercepted:
     • 6 ballistic missiles (Iskander-M/S-400).
     • 71 Shahed-type UAVs (out of 123 launched, plus 40 "decoy" drones).
   • The missiles were launched from Bryansk Oblast (6) and Crimea (1), targeting Kyiv and Kryvyi Rih.
   • The drones were launched from Millerovo, Orel, Bryansk, Kursk, and Primorsko-Akhtarsk (all in Russia).
   • Affected regions include Kharkiv, Poltava, Sumy, Kyiv, Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Kirovohrad, Zhytomyr, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, and Mykolaiv.

2. Damage and Casualties in Kyiv (UPDATED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

   • Zelenskyy / Official (06:30 UTC), Kyiv City Military Administration (06:35 UTC), and RBC-Ukraine (06:32 UTC) confirm damage to apartment buildings, office buildings, and civilian infrastructure.
   • One confirmed fatality in Kyiv and four injured, including a child.

3. Shelling and Airstrikes in Kharkiv Oblast (DETAILED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Oleg Sinegubov, Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration (06:33 UTC), provides a detailed report of shelling and airstrikes in Kharkiv Oblast over the past 24 hours:
     • Multiple settlements affected: Kutkivka, Berezivka, Borshchova, Osynove, and Zolochiv.
     • Casualties: A 54-year-old man was injured in Kutkivka.
     • Damage: Damage to houses, a cultural center, cars, and agricultural facilities.
     • Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): 6 KABs were used to attack the Zolochiv community, damaging an agricultural enterprise.
     • No enemy assaults were reported on the Kharkiv front.
     • Seven enemy attacks were repelled in the Kupiansk direction.

4. Intense Fighting Continues on Multiple Fronts (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

   • Operativny ZSU (06:21) reports that 30 of the 95 combat clashes that happened yesterday occurred in the Pokrovsk direction.

5. Russian Reconnaissance Group Activity (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): * Poddubny |Z|O|V| edition (06:02 UTC) claims that a Russian reconnaissance group "burned" enemy forces on the road to Sudzha, asserting significant losses. Requires verification; likely propagandistic.

6. Russian Advance Near Kamyanske (CLAIMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Sliwochnyi Kapriz (06:32 UTC) reports positional battles near Kamyanske, claiming Ukrainian forces expanded their control by over 700 meters after a drone strike. Requires verification and context; likely distorted or inaccurate.

7. Military Recruitment Advertisement (UKRAINIAN SOURCE)

   • Shef Hayabusa (06:26 UTC) provided a video promoting a one-year military contract in the Ukrainian Armed Forces, focused on Ukrainian citizens aged 18-24.

Updated Situation Summary

• MASSIVE AIR ATTACK REPULSED, BUT DAMAGE AND CASUALTIES CONFIRMED (EXTREME PRIORITY): The confirmed interception of 6 ballistic missiles and 71 drones represents a significant defensive success for Ukraine. However, the confirmed damage and casualties in Kyiv (1 dead, 4 injured) and reports of impacts in other regions (Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, Poltava, Chernihiv) highlight the ongoing threat posed by Russian attacks.
• INTENSE FIGHTING CONTINUES, POKROVSK DIRECTION A FOCAL POINT (EXTREME PRIORITY): The concentration of clashes in the Pokrovsk direction, as highlighted by the General Staff, remains a critical area of concern. Sustained pressure is expected in this area.
• KHERSON, MYKOLAIV THREATS REMAIN, BUT DETAILS ARE LACKING (HIGH PRIORITY): The earlier reported explosions in Kherson and the fire at an infrastructure object in Mykolaiv Oblast require further investigation to determine the extent of the damage and potential impact.
• RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF ADVANCES (REQUIRES VERIFICATION): The claims from Poddubny and Sliwochnyi Kapriz about Russian successes in the Sudzha and Kamyanske areas, respectively, require careful verification. These could be exaggerated or entirely fabricated for propaganda purposes.
• UKRAINIAN RECRUITMENT: The Ukrainian military is recruiting personnel to keep up with the number of casualties and fatigued troops.
• ALL PREVIOUS UPDATES REMAIN RELEVANT: The core situation remains largely unchanged, with intense fighting across multiple fronts, ongoing air and missile threats, and a grinding war of attrition.

Updated Recommendations

1. CONTINUE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT AND CASUALTY CLARIFICATION ACROSS ALL AFFECTED REGIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Prioritize accurate casualty figures in all affected areas, particularly Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, Poltava, and Chernihiv.
   • Conduct thorough damage assessments to determine the full impact on civilian infrastructure and military facilities.
   • Address immediate needs of affected populations, including medical care, shelter, and essential supplies.

2. INVESTIGATE AND VERIFY RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF ADVANCES (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Use all available intelligence assets to verify the claims made by Poddubny about Russian successes near Sudzha.
   • Cross-reference information from multiple sources to assess the accuracy of Sliwochnyi Kapriz's report about Ukrainian advances near Kamyanske.

3. MAINTAIN VIGILANCE AND AIR DEFENSE READINESS (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Maintain a high state of alert across all regions, given the demonstrated threat of ballistic missiles and drones.
   • Continuously evaluate air defense effectiveness and adapt tactics to counter evolving threats.
   • Ensure adequate supplies of interceptor missiles and ammunition.

4. REINFORCE DEFENSES IN KEY AREAS, PARTICULARLY POKROVSK (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Allocate resources to strengthen Ukrainian positions in the Pokrovsk direction, given the reported concentration of enemy attacks.
   • Prepare for potential intensified offensives in this area.

5. CONTINUE ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS: All other previous recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated. The primary focus remains on clarifying the impact of the recent air attacks, assessing new threats, verifying Russian claims, and maintaining a robust defense across all active fronts.