Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 12, 2025, 06:08 UTC

Major Updates (05:38 UTC - 06:08 UTC)

1. Russian Troop Losses (UPDATED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Operativny ZSU (05:38 UTC) and RBC-Ukraine (05:41 UTC) report an additional 1150 Russian personnel losses in the past 24 hours. This brings the total estimated Russian personnel losses since February 24, 2022, to a higher figure, reinforcing the trend of significant attrition.
   • Both sources also highlight substantial equipment losses in the past 24 hours, including:
     • 53 artillery systems
     • 164 drones
     • 121 units of automotive equipment.

2. Mykolaiv Oblast Infrastructure Fire (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • TASS (05:44 UTC), citing the head of the regional administration, Vitaliy Kim, reports a fire at an infrastructure object in Mykolaiv Oblast following explosions. Requires further details on the nature and impact of the fire.

3. Kyiv Missile Strike Aftermath (UPDATED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • RBC-Ukraine (06:01) National police reports documenting the consequences of the missile attack.
   • Debris impacts were recorded in the Holosiivskyi, Sviatoshynskyi, and Obolonskyi districts of the capital.
   • Currently, one fatality is confirmed, and there are reports of injured individuals.

4. General Staff Report, Detailed Combat Engagements (OFFICIAL, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, EXTENSIVE):

   • General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (06:01 UTC) provides a comprehensive operational report as of 08:00, February 12, 2025. Key highlights:
     • 95 combat clashes recorded in the past 24 hours.
     • Enemy attacks: 3 missile strikes (20 missiles), 89 airstrikes (149 guided bombs), 6300+ shellings (174 with MLRS), and 2354 kamikaze drone attacks.
     • Airstrikes targeted numerous settlements across various regions, including Hrem'iachka, Krasnopillia, Chernechchyna, Zolochiv, Veterynarne, Osynove, Zelenyi Hai, Stupochky, Druzhkivka, Katerynivka, Oleksandro-Shultyne, Pokrovsk, Leontovychi, Muravka, Hrodivka, Zvirove, Orikhiv, Sviatopetrivka, Huliaipole, Omelnyk, and Prydniprovske.
     • Ukrainian forces targeted: 10 areas of enemy personnel, weapons, and military equipment concentration, 6 artillery systems, 2 air defense systems, 1 radar station, and 3 UAV control points.
     • Frontline engagements detailed:
       • Kup'iansk Direction: 7 enemy attacks repelled near Kindrashivka, Petropavlivka, Nova Kruhliakivka, and Zahryzove.
       • Lyman Direction: 9 enemy attacks repelled near Novoserhiivka, Nove, Zelenyi Hai, Novoliubivka, and Yampolivka.
       • Siversk Direction: 1 enemy assault repelled near Bilohorivka.
       • Kramatorsk Direction: 4 combat clashes recorded near Vas'yukivka, Hryhorivka, and Chasiv Yar.
       • Toretsk Direction: 13 enemy attacks repelled near Toretsk, Dyliivka, and Shcherbynivka.
       • Pokrovsk Direction: 30 enemy assaults stopped near Vodyane Druhe, Pishchane, Pokrovsk, Uspenivka, Ulakly, Tarasivka, Yelyzavetivka, Promin', Lysivka, Kotlyne, Molodets'ke, Udachne, Nadezhdynka, Oleksiivka, Dachne, and Shevchenko.
       • Novopavlivsk Direction: 8 unsuccessful enemy attempts to break through near Kostiantynopil.
       • Huliaipole Direction: 3 combat clashes near Novosilka and Charivne.
       • Kursk Direction: 15 Russian attacks repelled; 40 airstrikes (56 guided bombs) and 634 artillery shellings (29 with MLRS) recorded.
       • No offensive actions reported on the Kharkiv, Orikhiv, and Prydniprovsk fronts.
     • Ukrainian forces continue to inflict losses on the enemy, including 1150 personnel, 9 tanks, 27 armored fighting vehicles, 53 artillery systems, 1 MLRS, 1 air defense system, 164 tactical UAVs, 1 cruise missile, 121 vehicles, and 1 unit of special equipment in the past 24 hours.

5. Obolonskyi District, Aftermath (UPDATED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Operativny ZSU (05:58) releases images and information of the attack.
   • RBK-Ukraine (05:51) also releases images.

6. Kherson Explosions (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • RBC-Ukraine (05:56 UTC) reports explosions heard in Kherson. Requires confirmation and details.

7. Russian-Kazakh Security Meeting (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • TASS (05:59 UTC) shows video of a meeting between the Secretaries of the Security Councils of Russia (Sergei Shoigu) and Kazakhstan (Gizat Nurdauletov) in Astana. Suggests ongoing diplomatic engagement with potential implications for regional security and cooperation.

Updated Situation Summary

• CONFIRMED LOSSES AND ONGOING BATTLES (EXTREME PRIORITY): The updated General Staff report provides extensive confirmation of intense fighting across multiple fronts, with Ukrainian forces repelling numerous Russian assaults. The reported high number of enemy casualties and equipment losses (if accurate) reinforces the trend of significant attrition, but does not change the fundamental assessment that the conflict remains a grinding war of attrition with high intensity.
• KYIV ATTACK - MULTIPLE DISTRICTS IMPACTED (HIGH PRIORITY): The National Police confirmation of debris impacts in three districts (Holosiivskyi, Sviatoshynskyi, Obolonskyi) and one confirmed fatality broadens the impact of the attack beyond the initial reports focused primarily on Obolonskyi. Damage assessment and casualty clarification remain a priority.
• MYKOLAIV INFRASTRUCTURE FIRE (HIGH PRIORITY): The confirmed fire at an infrastructure object in Mykolaiv Oblast represents a new threat. The nature, extent of damage, and impact of this fire require immediate assessment.
• KHERSON EXPLOSIONS (REQUIRES VERIFICATION): The reported explosions in Kherson must be verified and their impact assessed.
• RUSSIAN-KAZAKH DIPLOMATIC ENGAGEMENT (MEDIUM PRIORITY): The meeting in Astana indicates ongoing diplomatic efforts that could have indirect implications for the conflict, particularly concerning regional security and potential Russian requests for support.
• PROPAGANDA BATTLE CONTINUES: The claim of the "1-я Славянская гвардейская ордена ДНР, ордена Суворова мотострелковая бригада" is a propaganda attempt.

Updated Recommendations

1. CONTINUE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT AND CASUALTY CLARIFICATION IN KYIV (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Continue to prioritize the accurate determination of casualties across all affected districts in Kyiv (Holosiivskyi, Sviatoshynskyi, Obolonskyi). Reconcile any remaining conflicting reports.
   • Conduct thorough damage assessments in all three districts to determine the full extent of the impact on civilian infrastructure.
   • Address power outages and provide support to affected residents.

2. ASSESS MYKOLAIV INFRASTRUCTURE FIRE (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Gather detailed information on the nature of the infrastructure object targeted and the extent of the damage.
   • Determine the impact of the fire on military operations, civilian infrastructure, and the local population.
   • Assess the risk of further attacks and take appropriate defensive measures.

3. VERIFY KHERSON EXPLOSIONS (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Use all available intelligence assets to confirm the reported explosions and determine their location, cause, and impact.
   • Assess the potential threat to civilian populations and military positions.

4. MAINTAIN FRONTLINE DEFENSE AND PRESSURE (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Continue efforts to repel Russian assaults across all active fronts, as detailed in the General Staff report.
   • Allocate resources to reinforce Ukrainian positions and maintain control of strategically important areas.
   • Exploit identified enemy vulnerabilities based on reported losses and movement patterns.

5. MONITOR RUSSIAN-KAZAKH DIPLOMATIC ACTIVITY (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Gather intelligence on the discussions between the Security Council Secretaries of Russia and Kazakhstan.
   • Assess the potential implications for regional security and cooperation, particularly concerning any potential Russian requests for support.

6. CONTINUE ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS: All other previous recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated. The primary focus remains on clarifying the situation in Kyiv, assessing new threats (Mykolaiv, Kherson), and maintaining a robust defense across all active fronts.