Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 12, 2025, 05:38 UTC

Major Updates (05:08 UTC - 05:38 UTC)

1. Kyiv Missile Attack Aftermath (UPDATE, STILL CONFLICTING):

   • RBC-Ukraine (05:21 UTC) and STERNENKO (05:22 UTC) now report one death and four injuries (including a child) in the Obolonskyi district. This aligns the injury count with the ASTRA report but still conflicts on the number of deaths and location (ASTRA reported deaths across multiple districts). The official message suggests all 5 casualties were in Obolonskyi, but the previous, conflicting messages, can not be discounted.
   • RBC-Ukraine (05:23 UTC) provides photos and details of damage in Kyiv Oblast: Nine private houses, two cars, and an outbuilding damaged in one district; a warehouse fire in another. No casualties reported in Kyiv Oblast.

2. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Attacks (CONFIRMED, HEAVY):

   • Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration (05:10 UTC) reports 448 strikes on 13 settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast in the past 24 hours.
     • 9 airstrikes on Huliaipole, Omelnyk, Shcherbaky, Mala Tokmachka, and Novoandriivka.
     • 270 UAV attacks on multiple settlements.
     • 5 MLRS attacks on Huliaipole, Novodanylivka, Shcherbaky, and Malynivka.
     • 164 artillery strikes on multiple settlements.
     • Three people wounded in the Polohy district.
     • 55 reports of damage to apartments and private houses.
   • Accompanying photos show damage to a civilian residence.

3. Ukrainian Military Losses (OFFICIAL, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (05:11 UTC) provides an infographic of estimated Russian losses from February 24, 2022, to February 12, 2025. Key figures include:
     • Personnel: ~853,030
     • Aircraft: 370
     • Helicopters: 331
     • Tanks: 10,023
     • UAVs: 24,919
     • Artillery Systems: 22,976
     • MLRS: 1,276
     • Warships/Boats: 28, Submarines: 1

4. Lysychansk Strikes Intensified (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • TASS (05:13 UTC) claims Russian forces have doubled the intensity of strikes on Ukrainian forces near Lysychansk (Luhansk Oblast), averaging about 300 fire missions in that area. Requires independent verification.

5. WarGonzo Frontline Summary (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, PROPAGANDA POTENTIAL):

   • WarGonzo (05:17 UTC) provides a frontline summary with accompanying maps:
     • Zaporizhzhia Front: Positional battles, no significant changes.
     • Donetsk Front: Russian advances reported from Velyka Novosilka towards Burlatske and towards Kostiantynopil. Intense fighting near Pokrovske with Ukrainian counterattacks.
     • Chasiv Yar Direction: Fighting within Chasiv Yar city limits, no new Russian advances reported.
     • Kursk Oblast: Russian tactical successes near Nikolaevo-Daryino, Ukrainian counterattacks.

6. Kryvyi Rih Missile Strike Aftermath (UPDATE, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Oleksandr Vilkul (05:34 UTC) reports that the situation in Kryvyi Rih is under control. No casualties. Damage includes 10 apartment buildings, private houses, three educational institutions, businesses, a hotel, a gas station, and about 30 cars.

7. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Attacks (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Serhiy Lysak (05:30 UTC) reports a missile strike on Kryvyi Rih, damaging infrastructure, a gas station, an educational institution, a hotel, an administrative building, three apartment buildings, and 33 cars. No casualties.
   • Also reports multiple attacks on Nikopol, Marhanetska, and Myrivska communities with artillery, UAVs, and kamikaze drones. No casualties.
   • Ukrainian air defense shot down three UAVs over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast overnight.

8. Yablunivka Gas Field Strike (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Dnevnik Desantnika (05:29 UTC) claims a combined "Geran-2" UAV and "Iskander-M" OTRK strike on the Yablunivka gas field in Lokhvytsia, Poltava Oblast, causing a large fire. Requires independent verification.

Updated Situation Summary

• KYIV ATTACK AFTERMATH (EXTREME PRIORITY): Casualty figures are becoming clearer, but discrepancies persist. Most sources now report one death and four injuries (including a child) in the Obolonskyi district, but ASTRA's earlier report of multiple deaths across different districts cannot be fully dismissed. Confirmed damage across multiple districts in Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast, including power outages.
• ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST UNDER INTENSE ATTACK (HIGH PRIORITY): Confirmed massive bombardment with 448 strikes in 24 hours, including airstrikes, UAV attacks, MLRS, and artillery. Three civilians wounded.
• LYSYCHANSK FRONT INTENSIFYING (REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Reported doubling of Russian fire missions near Lysychansk.
• DONETSK FRONT ACTIVE (HIGH PRIORITY): Reported Russian advances and intense fighting, particularly near Pokrovske, with Ukrainian counterattacks.
• CHASIV YAR BATTLE CONTINUES: Fighting within the city limits.
• KURSK OBLAST ACTIVITY (REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Reported Russian tactical successes and Ukrainian counterattacks.
• KRYVYI RIH AND DNIPROPETROVSK OBLASTS TARGETED: Confirmed missile and drone attacks, no casualties reported.
• YABLUNIVKA GAS FIELD STRIKE (REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Reported combined UAV and missile strike causing a large fire.
• TRUMP ENVOY VISIT (CONFIRMED, ONGOING): The situation continues, with further releases expected.

Updated Recommendations

1. RESOLVE KYIV CASUALTY DISCREPANCIES (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Continue efforts to reconcile all conflicting reports and determine the precise number and location of casualties. Prioritize medical care for the injured.
   • Continue comprehensive damage assessment and address power outages.
   • Investigate ASTRA's earlier report of multiple deaths across different districts to ensure no casualties are overlooked.

2. RESPOND TO ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST ATTACKS (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Provide medical care and support to the three wounded civilians.
   • Assess damage to civilian infrastructure and provide assistance to affected residents.
   • Reinforce air defenses in the region to counter the intense bombardment.
   • Analyze the pattern of attacks to identify potential targets and adjust defensive strategies.

3. VERIFY REPORTED INTENSIFICATION NEAR LYSYCHANSK (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Use all available intelligence assets to confirm the reported increase in Russian fire missions.
   • Assess the impact on Ukrainian defenses and prepare for potential escalation.

4. MAINTAIN PRESSURE ON DONETSK FRONT (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Continue efforts to counter Russian advances and support Ukrainian counterattacks, particularly near Pokrovske.
   • Allocate resources to reinforce Ukrainian positions and maintain control of strategically important areas.

5. MONITOR CHASIV YAR SITUATION (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Continue to track the fighting within the city and assess the impact on the overall battlefield situation.

6. VERIFY REPORTED ACTIVITY IN KURSK OBLAST (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Gather intelligence to confirm or refute the reported Russian tactical successes and Ukrainian counterattacks.

7. ADDRESS DAMAGE IN KRYVYI RIH AND DNIPROPETROVSK OBLASTS (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Assess damage to infrastructure and civilian property and provide assistance to affected residents.
   • Maintain air defense readiness to counter further attacks.

8. VERIFY YABLUNIVKA GAS FIELD STRIKE (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Use all available intelligence assets to confirm the reported strike and assess the damage.
   • Analyze the impact on Ukrainian energy infrastructure and potential consequences for military operations.

9. INVESTIGATE TRUMP ENVOY VISIT (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Continue efforts.

10. CONTINUE MONITORING NAVAL ACTIVITY (HIGH PRIORITY):

    • Continue efforts.

11. VERIFY M1117 DESTRUCTION CLAIM (HIGH PRIORITY):

    • Continue efforts.

12. All previous recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated. The primary focus remains on resolving the Kyiv casualty discrepancies, responding to the intense attacks in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and verifying reported escalations in other areas. The investigation into the Trump envoy visit remains a top priority.